OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Maddog=this was covered on Reuters

Posted by Richard640 @ 23:17 on December 3, 2014  

UPDATE 1-Gold ETFs swing wildly at close of trading

Wed Dec 3, 2014 6:04pm EST

Dec 3 (Reuters) – A popular exchange-traded fund of gold miners dove nearly 10 percent in the waning seconds of trading on Wednesday, the latest in a series of unusual moves in single securities on heavy volume this month.

Nearly five million shares of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF changed hands in the last minute of trading as the fund dipped from $19.67 to a low of $17.72 on the day. The ETF is traded on NYSE Arca, one of the exchanges operated by the New York Stock Exchange.

The NYSE said that NYSE Group exchanges did not initiate any trade reviews, suggesting there were no complaints or requests to cancel the trades from any broker.

In a near-mirror image of the GDX drop, the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear ETF, a leveraged exchange-traded fund, rallied nearly 8 percent in the last two minutes of trading activity, also on heavy volume.

Just two days ago, shares of Apple Inc dipped 6 percent within a minute’s time in a surge in volume. Traders linked the action to institutional sell programs. (Reporting By David Gaffen; additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Chris Reese and Grant McCool)

This is from Murph tonight-Sorry-this is long but a great read–from the indefatigueable Bill Holter

Posted by Richard640 @ 23:04 on December 3, 2014  

Bill H:

Trading pattern has changed …drastically!
Gold and silver have now had three “outside reversal” days to the upside within the last three weeks. Those who follow the precious metals were absolutely shocked (after being shell shocked) to see this type of action the first time in many a moon…not to mention a “three’fer”! For those of you who don’t know what an “outside reversal day” is, let me briefly explain. It is the “outside” part which is important and without it, the “reversal” part is much less meaningful. For this to occur, trading for the day must be both lower and higher than any trades performed the previous day. In other words, the “bar” on the chart must totally engulf the action of the previous day and then close in the opposite direction of the previous momentum. Outside reversal days are very rare in any market. One of these may only occur once in a year’s time or even longer. The important thing to understand is when you do see a reversal day and accompanied by big volume, the “trend” is probably changing!

That said, “charts” in today’s marketplace are not what they once were. There was a time when charts were very reliable, this changed many years ago. I say “changed” because if you go back to 1988, President Reagan by executive order created the “working group on financial markets” as a result of the ’87 crash…otherwise known as the “plunge protection team” to prevent stock market crashes. Initially, this may have been a good idea with “good intentions”. The problem is this, the “PPT” has morphed into something out of the old USSR which tries to “manage” everything, everywhere, ALWAYS! This obviously changes the value of charts, if they can be “painted” (they are), then they don’t show a true picture, rather, they show a picture those doing the painting want you to see.

Yes, I am sure some will call me a conspiratorial nut job for saying that all markets are manipulated all the time, they are! I don’t even have anything to prove, the banks and brokers have already done this for you by paying fines for “rigging” in nearly every market. Why would they pay these fines if they were innocent? Please don’t tell me because of the “nuisance factor”, $30 billion+ in fines is a little more than a “nuisance”! In my opinion, these fines have been paid for two reasons, one more important than the other. First, these firms do not want to admit guilt. If they actually did admit guilt they could be shut out of various markets as admission of guilt in many cases by law requires them to cease and desist on various exchanges. The is a very important factor …but not THE important factor. THE important factor is the process called “discovery” where the firm (or firms) in question must open their books or pull their pants down so to speak and allow outside attorneys to see nearly everything. “Discovery” allows outside lawyers to see the books, ALL the books, of the firm that a judge allows. In other words, much, if not ALL of the dirt becomes visible! You do see the problems this may raise? The process of “discovery” means you can see what firm A was doing …AND “who” they were doing it with! Confidence in our “free and fair” markets would evaporate and the game we call everyday life would end. Can you imagine what would have happened were Enron’s records not destroyed one day in 2001? In any case, if you do not believe markets are manipulated every day by now, then please stop reading because there is nothing I can say to enlighten you.

Now, back to the precious metals. We have now had three outside reversal days within three weeks and on VERY HIGH VOLUME! Normally just one outside day would suffice but we have had three. Normally the outside day would be a very good signal that the trend has changed, I do not doubt this is the case now. What I do doubt is the reasoning behind what has happened. I believe the outside days have occurred because of “front running”. Gold and silver “prices” have been forced to levels where it is not profitable to mine in many cases. These low prices have also created far more demand than normally would be for the other side of the equation. Gold and silver have been in a supply demand deficit for years which has been exacerbated by the price suppression. In other words, “price” was not allowed to rise to ration demand and entice new supply. There is a giant problem though, it’s called “mathematics”. If there has been a supply/demand deficit then where has the deficit been funded from? Yes, you got it, Western central bank vaults.

I believe we have seen these outside day reversals because someone, somewhere, “knows something” or at least think they do. Someone (the Chinese and others) have done the math and can “smell” the bottom of the barrel. Maybe this bottom of the barrel is being exposed by the hugely negative GOFO rates or backwardation? Maybe someone has tried to make a big purchase and can’t do it …or cannot do it without a big premium?

As I wrote a couple of days ago, “price” will affect both supply and demand. I believe what this current change in trading activity points to is “price” has now affected supply and demand TOO MUCH! I believe we will look back at these three reversal days as a very big inflection point. The future action I now anticipate is an outright explosion upward in price as the physical market takes the pricing ability away from the paper markets. Gold and silver are very different “animals” compared to stocks, bonds, other commodities and even other currencies. Gold and silver are “money” and carry with them more “emotion” than any other asset class. Hard money advocates are more passionate regarding the metals than anything else. The naysayers are more dispassionate (hateful of) gold and silver than anything else. Governments and central banks are obviously more disdainful of gold and silver than anything else because the metals are a direct (and real) competitor (understand THREAT) to their “product”.

I mention this “emotion” factor because this is at the heart of the argument. Gold and silver cannot be allowed out of control …otherwise “confidence” in the status quo will be shaken to destruction. One other “emotion” factor is that “man” always wants something he cannot have. In fact, I would say that man will sometimes want something he cannot have even more than something he needs but this is arguable. The game over these past years has been to depress gold and silver prices in order to display them as poor choices and plentiful in supply. This has allowed interest rates to trade far lower than they otherwise would be. Artificially low interest rates have aided the central banks in their numerous “reflation” exercises. The problem now is supply in the physical market has become very tight and pressing prices lower are no longer scaring any more apples to fall from the tree. In other words, those who would be scared out of their positions have mostly sold. Now, lower prices are only acting to bring more and more value investors into the market and increasing demand. The “fulcrum” (price) must be moved to create a balance as it has been incorrectly placed for many years. I believe the old saying “there is no fever like gold fever” is about to surface. So I now wait patiently for the upside explosion as something has changed very drastically in the trading patterns. Though Mother Nature can be mocked via leverage for a spell, her laws can be ignored for only so long because there is such a thing as the real world with a real supply and demand equation! Bill Holter, Miles Franklin Associate writer

Dave from Denver…

Will gold and silver prices become far more volatile after the $70 upswing for gold on Monday?

Posted by Richard640 @ 22:48 on December 3, 2014  

Posted on 03 December 2014

Gold prices swung from $1,142 to $1,212 an ounce on Monday before settling around $1,200 yesterday. That was huge volatility in this normally stable asset. What does this mean? Is it a game changer for the precious metal? Silver’s $2 price recovery to $16.50 an ounce was even stronger than gold’s gain, at around 12 per cent. Could this be lift-off for a price explosion? Experts are struggling with those questions.

Gold is treated both as a ‘monetary asset’ and a ‘jewellery item’, which can complicate the price and drive volatility says Nitesh Shah, associate director at ETF Securities…

Video Link




The kick-off to a powerful bull mkt could be as early as this Friday-John williams suggests a $ reversal=”It could be an unusually weak economic statistic, and believe me, those are coming.”

Posted by Richard640 @ 22:43 on December 3, 2014  


[the 3 violent rejections of and the violent reversals from the $1130-40 level these past 6 weeks are “Vesuvian Tremors” indicating a new and powerful bull mkt in gold is imminent–John Williams mentions 2015-well…we are close enuff in time]

If you had regular bank lending, the economy would really be much stronger. It’s not.” Williams goes on to say, “People outside the United States know America is in trouble, and they know the dollar is in trouble. It’s not going to take much to trigger a reversal of the current circumstances. It could be an unusually weak economic statistic, and believe me, those are coming.”

3.9% GDP Nonsense-Dollar Turns Sharply Soon-John WilliamsBy Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Economist John Williams is not buying the recent 3.9% GDP upward revision. Williams explains, “No one I know thinks we are growing at 3.9% other than they are trying to sell a bill of goods to the markets, specifically the currency markets. 3.9% is nonsense. You had 4.6% growth in the second quarter and 3.9% in the third. Here you had two quarters at close to 4%, and we have not seen anything like that since 2003. This is the strongest economy we have seen in 11 years, and I can tell you Main Street USA is not seeing that. . . . If you understate inflation, which the government does, you overstate inflation adjusted growth, and that is probably the biggest problem in the GDP report.”

Recently, the U.S. deficit passed the $18 trillion mark, but using honest accounting, Williams says the debt picture is much worse, “Using generally accepted accounting principles with expenses and obligations, what you are seeing is the actual deficit. Instead of being half a trillion dollars last year, it was more like $6 trillion in the same length of time. The gross federal debt right now is $18 trillion. If you add on the unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare, you are approaching $100 trillion in terms of total federal obligation. There is just no way that can be covered. . . . The government, long term, is bankrupt.”

That brings us to the U.S. dollar. Williams says, “Right now, we have a big distortion in the market, and that is the strength of the U.S. dollar. I contend the dollar should be getting much weaker, and indeed it’s going to turn very sharply very soon, and that will be an approximate trigger for a major upturn in inflation. The reason the dollar is strong right now . . . the U.S. economy is booming, if you believe the statistics. Main Street USA doesn’t believe the statistics. The rest of the world is in recession, and guess what? We’re in recession too. We’re just not reporting the numbers as accurately as the rest of the world.”

Williams has revised and pushed back his hyperinflation forecast to begin in 2015 and not this year. Williams, now, expects a big upturn in the price of gold and oil next year. Williams explains, “The issue remains the dollar. What is distorted in the system right now is the dollar’s strength. It’s the strongest it’s been in some time. It’s over stated for multiple reasons ranging from outright manipulation to overstatement of economic growth and other games that have been played. That’s going to reverse shortly. As the dollar sells off, you will see inflation pick up. Part of the reason why oil is where it is now and part of the reason why gold is where it is now is because of the dollar’s strength.”

So, what about the future? We start with the not-too-distant past of six years ago. Williams says, “We are still living in the throes of the panic of 2008. What the central banks did at that time, specifically the Fed and the Treasury, was to take actions to push all the issues into the future. They didn’t do anything to solve the basic problem. The banking system is still in trouble. It is far from solvent, far from normal. You don’t have regular bank lending. If you had regular bank lending, the economy would really be much stronger. It’s not.” Williams goes on to say, “People outside the United States know America is in trouble, and they know the dollar is in trouble. It’s not going to take much to trigger a reversal of the current circumstances. It could be an unusually weak economic statistic, and believe me, those are coming.”


Posted by redneckokie1 @ 22:33 on December 3, 2014  

gasoline is $2.19 and falling in my area. Propane is $1.90 for non road use. Diesel is still high since it competes seasonally with heating oil.

im not ready to call a bottom in gold and silver but my phiz buying is more aggressive. My dollar cost average is north of $18.00.


The Debt Dosent Matter ,until it does!

Posted by Ororeef @ 21:46 on December 3, 2014  

Its the “CASH FLOW ” that keeps everything going …Thats why you should ALWAYS look at “Current ASSETS, Vs CURRENT LIABILITYS” on the Balance sheet …that tells you how much CASH FLOW is available to pay dividends and curent bills .If you cant pay them …then the DEBT really matters real quick !

A company can show losses on the income statement for a very long time without a problem until the “cash flow ” stops !  Thats what the US  Government does, it lives on “cash Flow”  ..the debt dosent matter…until it does !

macroman 20:19 thats a very offensive statement eh!

Posted by WANKA @ 21:42 on December 3, 2014  

awful  insult  to  ‘weasel piss’.  :mrgreen: wj


Posted by Ororeef @ 21:28 on December 3, 2014  

Could it have been some sort of “STOP BUY” order ?    I have seen “stop LOSS” orders executed that way ..its called running the stops .

I had a “stop Loss”done that way in Copper one time..Copper was trading at .51-.53   for a long time and had not been below that in memory  ..I put a stop at .49

they reached down and took out my stop and copper never looked back on its way to 1.50   I missed out on a bunch of money !  I never used a stop again !

I hope you gata nudge nudge wink wink with that…

Posted by macroman3 @ 21:27 on December 3, 2014  

Goodnight Mrs. Winedoc

Mrs Winedoc says …..” Say Good Night to Your Buddies”

Posted by winedoc @ 21:13 on December 3, 2014  

She made me go to see her …… Halifax

“Time to Say GoodBye”

See Y’all for Coffee


DJMM3 ……. I bow to You …… “Waiting for the Great Leap Forward” Billy Bragg

Posted by winedoc @ 20:53 on December 3, 2014  


Man,  the Fender Telecaster is a fantastic guitar,  I gotta learn to play mine better …….


winedoc, as to your 20:22, you are the DJ tonight…I’ll stand down but for 1 so it’s not a crowded house

Posted by macroman3 @ 20:45 on December 3, 2014  

This song has a golden ring to it… sleep well

No One Loves Me But My Mother

Posted by winedoc @ 20:45 on December 3, 2014  

BB King …. Halifax x 2

Crazy Horse Tavern, front row,  BB gave me a Lapel Pin


After the Gold Rush

Posted by winedoc @ 20:43 on December 3, 2014  

saw him in Halifax


Señor: Tales of Yankie Power ….. Dylan …..

Posted by winedoc @ 20:38 on December 3, 2014  

saw Him Twice


Stairway to Heaven by “Heart” …… saw ‘Em

Posted by winedoc @ 20:30 on December 3, 2014  


I’m thinking you need to add wild in front of winedoc?

Posted by macroman3 @ 20:27 on December 3, 2014  

You must have spent a bunch of time across the pond. Cheers, mm

DJMM …… I’m going to bed early ……

Posted by winedoc @ 20:26 on December 3, 2014  

Genesis ……  saw ‘Em


Split Enz …..

Posted by winedoc @ 20:22 on December 3, 2014  

Saw ‘Em


wanka, did you know the street lingo for WD40 up north is weasel piss?

Posted by macroman3 @ 20:19 on December 3, 2014  

Name suits your “leader”

Brass in Pocket ……..

Posted by winedoc @ 20:15 on December 3, 2014  

Saw ‘Em


Working for The Clampdown …….

Posted by winedoc @ 20:11 on December 3, 2014  

Saw ‘Em  three times ……. and Joe Strummer gave me a guitar string ……. front row baby !!


Alternative Ulster 1979/80 ……. While we sleep …….

Posted by winedoc @ 20:09 on December 3, 2014  

Saw ‘Em


Smash it Up 1979

Posted by winedoc @ 20:03 on December 3, 2014  

Saw them too ……


equiz LOL

Posted by WANKA @ 20:00 on December 3, 2014  

now that is unique and something completely different! wj

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.