Loading ...jim wrote this–so no rate hike?????=
Tomorow, November 30: This is when the Commerce Department releases the “PCE deflation, core year-over-year” number. Sounds geeky, but that’s the specific inflation number the Fed uses as a benchmark.
The Fed’s target is 2%. The last reading was 1.3%, down from 1.9% at the beginning of 2017. If this number comes in at 1.3% or less, it’s hard to see how the Fed raises rates unless they are willing to ignore their own benchmark in favor of the mythical Phillips Curve and even more mythical “stimulus” effects of the proposed Trump tax bill.
Important voices like Neel Kashkari, Charles Evans, Lael Brainard, Benn Steil and others are already warning that a rate hike in December could be a huge blunder if the inflation data is weak.
I THINK THIS IS THE REPORT=
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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, November 30, 2017
BEA 17—63
* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables, contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, OCTOBER 2017
Personal income increased $65.1 billion (0.4 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $66.1 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.4 billion (0.3 percent). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and ******Real PCE increased 0.1 percent******. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. |