OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Buygold re 15:52 Trade Wars Story by the variable invisible author Tyler Durdan

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 19:20 on March 3, 2018  

By the things the unknown says, to me he is a biased pro global globalist, and or he did not put enough thought into the subject. He sounds like he’s from CNBC or Bloomberg, going against the new world situation.

The USA has nothing to lose, because the USA already lost everything, resulting in the 2008 crash, that took down the whole global economy down until TPTB bailed everything out with artificial means, and gave the USA a $20 trillion national debt.

This country has gone thru numerous big problems for decades WITHOUT a trade war, so logic would suggest that a trade war would be an improvement for future decades.  Only the transition from bad to good would be the temporary PAIN, like being half dead after bypass operation or cold turkey breaking a heroin habit..

re “his” part:

“a trade war is probably more dangerous for investors at this time than at any other time in recent history”

Comment:

He forgot to say which investors “he” talking about? If everything is reversing, then those who did well, will do worse, and those who did poorly will do better. That’s where the focus should be.

For starters, global multi national corporations did very well for decades doing as they please, so they should be less well off, contract. Who did poorly? How about savers and producers? They always get punished MOST of the time, but get a “bone” thrown to them occasionally to stay alive.

The last bone the savers got was higher CD rates of 18% back around 1980. The producers got a couple of bones thrown to them when they had the US dollar at 72 on the index. Short lived higher metal, food and energy profits leading to over production, and back to lower prices again.

COT

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:16 on March 3, 2018  

Silver

*The large specs reduced their long positions by 177 contracts and increased their shorts by 6,651 contracts.

*The commercials reduced their longs by 3,923 contracts and decreased their shorts by 8,905 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 2,216 contracts and increased their shorts by 370 contracts.

GOLD

*The large specs reduced their long positions by 5,224 contracts and increased their shorts by 6,980 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 6,614 contracts and reduced their shorts by 8,468 contracts.

*The small specs decreased their longs by 1,065 contracts and increased their shorts by 1,813 contracts.

This report will be viewed generally as constructive.

 

They Are No Longer Planning To Crash The Economy. Interesting statement from Lindsay Williams on our immediate future

Posted by silverngold @ 18:33 on March 3, 2018  

Not a Rickards fan but sadly he may be right

Posted by Buygold @ 17:13 on March 3, 2018  

Jim Rickards: “Now, A Trade War – Next, A Shooting War”

A full-scale trade war is now upon us. It will shake markets and be a major headwind for world growth. It will get ugly fast and the world economy will be collateral damage. Today looks like a replay of the 1930s... Next comes the shooting war… will be tantamount to World War III.”

Hey Ipso

Posted by Buygold @ 17:07 on March 3, 2018  

I would think so but ya never know how the rig will play it. I do know the funds always lose.

Things are heating up but I’m not sure if that’s in a good way…

But does gold and silver win in this scenario?

Posted by Buygold @ 15:32 on March 3, 2018  

Trade Wars are Bad, and Nobody Wins

Yesterday’s announcement by President Trump of imminent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports was taken poorly by global stock markets. Perhaps in an attempt to convince investors this was an incorrect response, early this morning he tweeted that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” He is wrong, and beyond the simple fact of his wrongness, a trade war is probably more dangerous for investors at this time than at any other time in recent history given the implications it would have for inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth. The only positive from the tariffs is that it is a windfall profit increase for U.S. producers of steel and aluminum, which is at least positive for them. It is unlikely to cause any material increase in U.S. capacity to produce steel and aluminum and therefore unlikely to lead to many additional jobs even in those sectors. The negatives are much more significant. I believe these tariffs on their own will push inflation higher, and higher inflation is a threat to the valuations of more or less all financial assets today. But the greater threat is that this escalates into an actual trade war. A trade war would increase prices on a much broader array of goods and services, while simultaneously depressing aggregate global demand. This pushes us in the direction of not just inflation but stagflation, where both valuations and corporate cash flow would be under pressure. While there are scenarios that would be worse for financial markets—the proverbial asteroid on a collision path with Earth comes to mind—a trade war has the potential to be very bad for both the global economy and investor portfolios.

As I wrote about last December, a significant inflation problem might well be the worst thing that could happen to a balanced portfolio, leading to losses on the order of 40%. A global trade war would be exactly the kind of economic event that could foreseeably lead to losses of that magnitude.

Trade Wars are Bad

As a general rule, when you add “war” to your description of an event, it’s a pretty strong suggestion that it is unlikely to be either good or easy. Wars are sometimes well intentioned (the war on drugs), occasionally necessary (World War II), but seldom good and more or less never easy to win. Even if you do “win” easily, the longer term implications are often more problematic than you thought (the second Iraq War). There is still some time for this particular war to be averted. But while it is our general contention that equity markets tend to overreact to political and economic events, this is not one of those times.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-03/trump-threatens-europe-we-will-apply-retaliatory-tax-their-cars

Buygold @ 10:54

Posted by ipso facto @ 13:51 on March 3, 2018  

Open interest way down and commercial short positions in silver are way down too …

Time for a silver rally?

http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SI.png

Just looked at the COT Report again

Posted by Buygold @ 10:54 on March 3, 2018  

Didn’t realize that the funds actually have more short positions than longs

63,023     64,531

Don’t think I’ve ever seen that before – an explosive rally in silver would wipe a lot of those guys out

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.