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Bullish gold COT report…but will it matter?

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:46 on October 12, 2018  

The Commitment of Traders Report


*The large specs reduces their long positions by 3,802 contracts and increased their shorts by 950 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 1,431 contracts and reduced their shorts by 3,136 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 774 contracts and increased their shorts by 589 contracts.


*The large specs decreased their long positions by 12,744 contracts and increased their shorts by 3,609 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 4,938 contracts an reduced their shorts by 12,053 contracts.

*The small specs decreased their longs by 1,845 contracts and reduced their shorts by 1,207 contracts.


Sorry, this is a bit long-but will all the pros saying stocks are a buy and everything is fine-I’m in the mood for some Schiff

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:43 on October 12, 2018  

[he makes some good points-like me, he says gold will not collapse like in 2008]

Peter Schiff Explains Why We Could See $5,000 Gold (Video)


Could we be heading toward $5,000 gold?

Last week, there was a big sell-off in the bond market. Yields on the 10-year Treasury soared 11 basis points in one day. Global stock markets sold off the following morning and US stock markets followed suit. This week, things really got really ugly on Wall Street. The Dow dropped over 1,300 points in two days. In a video for SchiffGold, Peter Schiff said stock market investors “finally took notice of the carnage that was going on in the bond market.”

On Thursday, the price of gold popped, rising nearly 3%. But despite all of the action this week, most people in the mainstream remain complacent. The narrative is that this is a normal bull market correction. Peter said nothing could be further from the truth.

The economy is even a bigger bubble than the stock market.”

President Trump was out talking up the economy in the midst of the Wall Street mayhem. He claims the economy was near collapse when he took office and he’s fixed everything. Peter said Trump was half right. The economy was a mess when he took office. And it still is.

The only thing Donald Trump has done since being elected president is to blow more air into the bubble. So, we’re still going to have the crash he was talking about, only now it’s going to happen from a higher level and it’s going to be that much more spectacular. This is going to be a sequel to 2008, and like all sequels, it’s going to be bad.”

In 2008, we had a dollar rally and a sell-off in gold – at least initially. Peter said this time around, we’ll see an opposite ending.

Gold is going to take off and the dollar is going to collapse, and the inflationary recession that is going to follow the bursting of this bubble is going to be far more disruptive and painful for the average American.”

But here’s some good news. This crisis is going to be far more profitable for the people who own gold and for investors who buy more gold now.

When the financial crisis hit in 2008, the price of gold fell. Why? Because the yellow metal had already rallied to a record high of $1,000 in the summer of ’08. Investors were already buying gold. The rally began in 2001 from below $300. When the crisis hit, everybody had lots of profits in gold and nobody was short. Fast-forward to today. Nobody has been buying gold. The yellow metal is about 40% below its $1,900 peak. Hedge funds are actually short gold for the first time since 2001. When the crisis hits, nobody will be sitting on big gold profits, investors will need to cover their shorts and gold is under-owned.

Then there’s the dollar. In the summer of ’08, the greenback was at an all-time low. Everybody was short the dollar. Today, the greenback is strong and investors are long the dollar.

As Peter pointed out, one of the reasons the dollar was so weak in 2008 was because we had big budget deficits and big trade deficits.

People were smart enough to realize that was a problem. Well, today we have even bigger budget deficits and even bigger trade deficits and nobody thinks it’s a problem at all.”

Peter said when you look at all of the dynamics, we are primed for a collapse in the dollar.

When the crisis ensues, it’s actually going to be a dollar crisis, not just a financial crisis — a dollar crisis.”

The bottom line is the sale we’ve been having in gold for years is about to come to an end.

If you’ve been thinking about buying more gold or more silver, stop thinking and start buying. If you don’t own any gold or silver, what are you waiting for? You’ve got to buy it because the prices are going to start to go up a lot faster. And once it really goes, it’s going to leave a lot of people behind.”

How high can gold go? Peter said $5,000 or $10,000 is possible — even more if hyperinflation takes hold. And that’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Make sure you watch the video. Peter also explains why bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not a safe haven.

Video Link

https://schiffgold.com/videos/peter-schiff-explains- why-we-could-see-5000-gold-video/


From Wollies blog-a reader posts this=Remember….at turning points all the news fits the current price as justification as to why it cant possibly be a low (or high) even though the market is screaming at you.

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:21 on October 12, 2018  
 posted this on Tuesday about gold.

You guys have heard this from me before about the news always fitting the latest price action which tells you Nothing because when it’s about to change direction…..they don’t ring a Bell!

Just saw the latest COT’s on Gold for this last Tuesday.



Here is an example of what I have talked about at market turning points.


Remember….at turning points all the news fits the current price as justification as to why it cant possibly be a low (or high) even though the market is screaming at you.
Why does this Always happen?
Because it needs to happen to change the trend.
The trend of selling.
Extremes in Sentiment are more than a word or a few words.
It is a condition.
What it defines at these extremes is a reflection of the amount of (in the case of a low), sellers left.
In other words….the sellers dry up.
It’s not that you will have buyers rush in.
The selling…for the most part becomes so weak that you can’t get prices to drop further.
So you get the type of action we have had since the Aug 16th timeframe.

And…..you get the pundits exclaiming that the fundamentals aren’t right… YET.
The news always fits the latest price action.
In other words.
The fact that selling is over means the fundamentals are about to change as well.


Posted by Richard640 @ 19:07 on October 12, 2018  

The drop in AAII bulls could be a buy signal for the stock market

[There’s just no way this stock bull will ever end-too many bears-stocks do well after mid-terms-then there’s the Santa rally—and the Good King Wencelas rally and so on and so forth.]


As the U.S. stock market began its recent reversal, Wall Street bulls hit the exits at a rapid-fire rate. In fact, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure index dropped by nearly 32 points, or 37%, last week — the biggest point drop since August 2013, and the biggest percentage drop since February 2016. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll showed the largest reduction in self-proclaimed bulls so far in 2018. Here’s what that could mean for the stock market.

Specifically, AAII bulls — or those who feel the direction of the market will rise over the next six months — plummeted by 15.1 percentage points in the week ended Wednesday, Oct. 10, marking the largest one-week drop since November 2017, according to Schaeffer’s Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. Most of those investors migrated to the bearish camp, with self-identified bears rocketing higher by 10.3 percentage points


Why is this man smiling?

Posted by Maya @ 18:12 on October 12, 2018  


Wouldn’t you?

Commitment of Traders

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:06 on October 12, 2018  

Commercials get a little bit more net long in silver and quite a bit more net long in gold.



Posted by Maddog @ 15:54 on October 12, 2018  

Just look at the ramp job in the SM…nothing has changed I’m afraid…the Dog is up near 3 %, as the pile into all those FANG bargains……Cramer knew the scum would be in !!!!!

This isn’t the scenario & action I was looking for…if gold goes to the moon Sun. nite, it’ll have to go without me

Posted by Richard640 @ 15:54 on October 12, 2018  

The risk is that world and u.s. stocks rally-with a big up  opening,,,and gold has a big drop…these option premiums would collapse…I’ll take my chances Monday morning if the situation warrants it…Heck, I made Saturday night boogey money…interesting that gold is holding up despite the strong close in stocks…


Filled Sell to Close 100 JNUG Oct 19 2018 9.5 Call Limit 0.28– — 15:22:11 10/12/18

ADV DECLINE ratio is the thing to watch here !,If the crossover does what it did in March 2016 its over if the 34dMA croses over the144 D MA (THE END Game MA) Fibonacci tells when the change in Growth occurs

Posted by Ororeef @ 14:30 on October 12, 2018  



Posted by Buygold @ 14:22 on October 12, 2018  

holding up surprisingly well. If they start to lead we are on our way.

Hopefully. 😧

Seems there is a good SM buyer in the Dow @ Unch….scum don’t want it negative ????

Posted by Maddog @ 14:21 on October 12, 2018  

Volatile Market

Posted by Buygold @ 13:22 on October 12, 2018  

Up down

Hard to play

Ruh Roh

Posted by Buygold @ 12:54 on October 12, 2018  

SM rolling over

could get ugly

I dunno if this fade in the stock mkt. is just a bear trap but it has gone pretty far…but if it does

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:45 on October 12, 2018  

roll over the last hour, it would set up a possible black Monday…I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that, though…I just wonder if gold would go in the opposite direction like it did Wednesday & Thursday??…so far JNUG’s been popping a bit when stocks sell off…given the new high volatility, gold could shoot up nicely…the DOW is up only 50 now [it was up 414 earlier]–and gold hasn’t done much…deploying profits, I picked up a 100 JNUG calls–but far out of the money–I ain’t risking a lot to buy at or near the money options…A “just in case trade”…

Oops, the Russell is now down 4 pts–big time reversal–I like that from my bearish perspective…I may have to dubble up on those calls…the DOW’s up 37…but Dang! Golds still down 4.40…that ain’t right….[snort]


Filled.     Buy to Open.         80JNUG Oct 19 2018 9.5 Call.                 Limit.       0.21—-11:03:38 10/12/18
Filled Buy to Open 20 JNUG Oct 19 2018 9.5 Call  Limit 0.21 11:03:38 10/12/18

So it begins. Margaret this is why you never give up your right to bear arms against a enemy both foreign and domestic including a gov turned rogue.

Posted by goldielocks @ 11:42 on October 12, 2018  

South Africa Calls for 300,000 Gun Owners to Turn Over Their Weapons

White SA need to get the heck out of there SAP before there all murdered by this ignorant criminal country. In the meantime hope they hold back and if they have to shoot any of those trying to murder them they just bury them because apparently their police and judicial system is a joke or tell them they took the gun away from them but that probably won’t matter with a parasitic gov out to kill them.
In the meantime make alternative weapons.
A four year old gang raped and when they found out she was still alive they put newspaper on her and burnt her alive. A man killed his wife rapped why they stood on her face and murdered her. They then filled the bath tub with boiling hot water and told the young son think he was around 11 to go lay down in it face first and took him crying forcing him face down in the scalding water.
I don’t know why the useless UN is not getting on them. They probably want to happen.
Canada, US ,Australia, NZ , parts of Europe and more need to help these family’s relocate all at once and stop all aid to that country that will come once they drive the farmers out savage the farms and Darwinism takes its course and under the circumstances they make war on whites whites shouldn’t lift a finger to help them after their savage attack of these farmers. Don’t buy their products and put pressure on other countries to do the same and bigger sanctions on ivory smuggling.
The story’s coming from there are horrific and beyond conception they even belong to the human race.
All we can do is pray but faith without works is dead.

South Africa Calls for 300,000 Gun Owners to Turn Over Their Weapons


Posted by treefrog @ 11:37 on October 12, 2018  

…gold holding most of yesterday’s gains, silver up a couple cents.  not so bad.

mining stocks?  not so much.  🙁


Posted by Maddog @ 11:13 on October 12, 2018  

What I see in PM shares is they are painting ystdy as a panic short covering rally…only. No new bull falls apart like some PM shares have tdy…over 4 % down, with the SM still on it’s knees.

The mkt just had it’s first pullback-the opening high, the DOW was up 414–it looks like it was a bear trap–now rising again…still, Europes not confirming but

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:45 on October 12, 2018  

it’s been going opposite the U.S. for many months…so it’s not the principal indicator…the Global Dow indicator shows a bounce too but no big deal….what is interesting is that gold is finally functioning as a haven against falling stocks…on this little pullback JNUG shot up 30 cents…



Buygold-the stock mkt. looks like a zillion dollars–everything in gear=the trannies-Russell-Naz screaming-but Europe is not

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:24 on October 12, 2018  

confirming-The DAX is only up 54 pts. Assuming [and I’m not sure] the mkt IS bearish, the rebounds are short, sharp, scary [for the bears] and look like the real deal…so Sunday night could be interesting–If this mkt turns and ends up down, that would be quite bearish–a sharp blow to bullish confidence–and could set up a black Monday…unlikely but not impossible…the DOW just backed off 80 pts…lets see if that’s just a bear trap=this is interesting from Phillip Whalen-one of the savviest Wall st pros in the game==


The real estate markets are over-extended, asset prices are silly and the only way forward for debt and equity valuations is lower. 

The only credit being extended today in the short-term markets is with collateral.  There is no longer any unsecured lending between banks and, especially, non-banks. As we noted in The Institutional Risk Analyst earlier this week, there are scores of nonbank lenders in mortgages, autos and consumer unsecured lending that are ready to go belly up.  Half of the non-bank mortgage lenders in the US are in default on their bank credit lines.  As in 2007, the model builders at the Fed in Washington have no idea nor do they care to hear outside opinions.

If you understand that the Fed’s previous “extraordinary” policy actions have the effect of understating LT interest rates by at least a percentage point, then you know why President Trump is howling like a wounded hound. Nobody understands the danger of leverage better than a real estate developer.  When you see the dislocation and distress visible to those with eyes wide open in the non-bank residential and, especially, multifamily mortgage sectors, then you know why President Trump is rebuking the Federal Reserve.

Bottom line: We fully expect to see some business failures in the residential lending and multifamily development sectors over the next 12 months.  The real estate markets are over-extended, asset prices are silly and the only way forward for debt and equity valuations is lower.  More important, if the “real” rate for the 10-year bond is over 4%, then where should the Dow and S&P be tomorrow at the opening?  By raising short-term interest rates instead of unwinding QE 2-3 and Operation Twist, the Fed is repeating the mistakes of 1928 and is creating the circumstances for a liquidity crisis.



Posted by Maddog @ 10:23 on October 12, 2018  

Well we sure have no follow thru….NEM and PAAS crushed..of course SSRM is up over 6 % so PAaS has to be hit hard.

Looks like the scum are the only SM buyers, as no-one else is playing today…..or is this all being done to try and wreck GoP chances in the Mid Terms…with Hillary back stage nothing surprises.

There’s a thorn removed

Posted by ipso facto @ 10:12 on October 12, 2018  

Turkish court rules to release U.S. pastor Brunson



Posted by Buygold @ 10:00 on October 12, 2018  

If pm’s and shares were up that would break the golden rule of no follow through.

No way in hell we ca have that, especially on Friday.

Funny how PM share upside gap opening always get sold, but downside ones hardly ever bought.

Posted by Maddog @ 9:54 on October 12, 2018  

Au off 0.20 % and NEM down 3 % Ag up 0.6 % PAAS down 2.5 %……the scum are alive and well folks.


Posted by Buygold @ 9:42 on October 12, 2018  

Thinking it may not hold, might make Sunday night real interesting

Don Wolanchuk yesterday and last night

Posted by Richard640 @ 7:43 on October 12, 2018  

es sporting a 39 handle premium over cash …..the boyz have prepared themselves for a monster payday next week…..the brass ring of inventory that awaited them under those 200 day ma.s was just to juicy a plum to ignore


quite simple…. look at any long term chart….all great advances are preceded by the ugliest of declines….the uglier the better….undeniable …..and with other evidence its simple


dontchu loveit……the bears are about to be stunned into silence….shawk n awe…
most will over stay their hand looking for lower lows
the technical damage was on sept 20–today there was a huge amount of technical pluses
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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.