OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

for maya

Posted by treefrog @ 23:42 on October 28, 2018  

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The rubberband of relationships is stretching for gold. Volatility indicators say next week is very likely to be a range expansion week

Posted by Richard640 @ 23:26 on October 28, 2018  

We are Going to Move

Shorts are covering, little to no long spec positions exist, the dollar remains strong, global issues are now chronic, stocks are very volatile and the trade war with China is not going away overnight. Changing or simply raising awareness of  any one of these and Gold moves fast and hard. The rubberband  of relationships is stretching for gold. Volatility indicators say next week is very likely to be a range expansion week

Making Non-Sense and Sense of Gold’s Price Action

Gold’s behavior in light of the strong USD does not make sense historically. Yet gold’s behavior in view of prolonged EU issues does make some sense. Gold’s strength during this stock market correction does not make sense historically. That said, there are few spec longs and many shorts in the metal, which may be contributing to its resilience in the face of extreme stock volatility. Gold’s strength also does not make sense in light of Yuan trade war behavior. But last week saw the CNY give gold every reason to drop and it did not. That could be a function of China’s short term inability to reference the Yuan to both USD and Gold when setting prices. Here are some comments all three of those seeming contradictions

Volatility Ready to Exhale

The confidence in soon to be increasing volatility is based on our in-house VBS algorithm used for trading. Basically, Gold is again on our radar for a large and possibly whippy move. We say “whippy” because fakeouts are on the table before the true direction is picked.

Being on “the radar” for us means we are on alert for a trending move to begin if Gold closes a 4 hour bar above $1238.78 or below $1232.05.  And if a breakout fails to materialize, those levels narrow. The radar doesn’t negate as volatility just coils more.

Given the signal is being generated on a  4 hour term, then  it is highly unlikely we will have to wait more than a couple days for an alert. Thus, until an alert hits; no position is the right position.

Don’t Ask Which  Way

We  don’t know. Anybody who is looking for that can stop reading here. We handicap probabilities. Active traders usually put on positions based on perceived asymmetric probabilities, and remove them based on VaR.  That is what we do anyway.

We have made several weekly macro calls in this space as recently as 2 months ago. Even though most of those situations have been accurate, (we have  been on a hot streak), that does not mean prognostication powers lie with anyone. We expect to be right 50% of the time. We believe our “edge” lies  in 2 things:

  1. Time: how quickly we are right or wrong frees capital and trading bandwidth to  move on.
  2. Risk Reward: consistently risking 1 to make 2.

What can be banked on is this: Outside the range given above on a 240 minute bar close will unleash the Vol for a 4-16 hours. From there, it could snowball. So for us, that means either making sure we have 2 bites at the directional apple, or buying volatility and trading gamma.

Order Flow Patterns are Bullish Now

First, we have noted in previous posts the apparent surge in interest between the hours of 12:00 and 4:00 am ET US in Gold. For the last week or so, there is a definite pattern of Gold picking a direction during those hours. Most of the time it has been higher. Sometimes it has been lower with a violent reversal higher. And on at least one occasion, a complete selloff ensued. Based on observation  and information we believe  there has been a large  order during those hours that has returned semi regularly. When it does, Gold goes higher. When it seemingly does not, Gold fishes lower until it finds either the buyer or no stops. On the 1 or 2 days the buy order was not there, Gold dropped.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-28/kiss-1235-goodbye-vol-visits-gold-next-week

Any Cryptocurrency enthusiasts Here? Now you see them, now you don’t. Poof!! they’re gone!

Posted by silverngold @ 19:00 on October 28, 2018  

Newsflash: Canadian Bitcoin Exchange ‘Hacked,’ Says All Funds are Gone

cryptocurrency bitcoin canada

A small Bitcoin exchange based in Alberta, Canada, has gone offline. Before their Twitter page went offline, MapleChange had announced on Twitter that they “[had] no more funds to pay anyone back.”

In the way of an explanation, the exchange had, approximately one hour before deleting its Twitter page, said that a “bug” had enabled “some people” to withdraw all of the funds on the exchange. Educated readers may recall a time when Mt. Gox claimed similar problems. The handling of the two cases by their administrators was dramatically different. In the case of Mt. Gox, attempts were made to repair the damage, although they resulted in worse damage. They went so far as to near-nakedly manipulate the Bitcoin price in an attempt to recoup lost customer funds before anyone found out.

The MapleChange Twitter account possessed less than 2,000 followers.

By contrast, Coinbase has over 1 million followers on Twitter and lesser-known altcoin exchange C-Cex has nearly 100,000. In short, cryptonaughts are generally highly active on Twitter and the viewership on that platform is a semi-decent way to judge the popularity of a product or service in the space.

Experts, Customers Fear Exit Scam

bitcoin exchange hack
Source: Twitter

It’s been some time since we were able to report on a good old-fashioned exit scam. In the crypto space, we have primarily seen them in gambling, the dark web, and exchanges. The recipe is basic: gather trust of some clientele, get all their funds in one place, and run off with the money. It doesn’t actually matter the method by which you run off with the money, whether you claim a hack or simply up and disappear. The less-frequent (today) practice is precisely where the old wisdom of keeping one’s coins off exchanges and the like overnight comes from. You never know what’s going to happen next, and in cryptocurrency, you don’t have anything if you don’t have your own private keys. It’s just the nature of the thing.

Unfortunately, the MapleChange “hack” has all the signs of an exit scam.

For starters, there’s no need for the exchange to delete its social media pages or completely disappear in quite the fashion it has. There is no question that it is in debt to a number of depositors, gratefully a likely small number, but in business such things happen, and that’s what insurance or bankruptcy courts are for.

The short span of time between the announcement of the “bug” and the total disappearance of the exchange or its operators is another signal.

The domain itself, registered at GoDaddy by one “Flavius P,” is suspect. Most professional operations go to some lengths to be above board, especially those that handle other people’s money.

The timing of the problems is another significant factor in guessing that this is not a hack or a bug at all, but rather an elaborate, premeditated scam. As you can see by MapleChange.com’s recent traffic statistics, they were most probably doing more business over the last week than they had in recent times. If they are guilty of fraud, they struck early on a Sunday morning when they likely expected most clients to be sound asleep.

This story will be updated as new information becomes available. MapleChange representatives are welcome to reach out to CCN with more information.

Images from Shutterstock

Fed doesn’t care about rates – they are Globalists

Posted by Buygold @ 18:52 on October 28, 2018  

All they care about is keeping the fiat game going and punishing the U.S. for even considering nationalism. Central to that is keeping the gold price down.

Any questions?

I just logged in 5 minutes ago-had to do it again=In other words, don’t expect any rescue from the Fed for another several hundreds S&P points.

Posted by Richard640 @ 14:18 on October 28, 2018  

And whereas traditionally the Fed has stepped in to offset any stock weakness, either through direct action (delaying of rate hikes, or verbal jawboning), this time the imperative for the Fed is different: as Kocic explained above, weaker equities are consistent with ongoing term premium recovery because of the implications for pension investor flows.

Or, in simpler terms, the Fed wants higher long-term yields:

Stable equities slow corporate plan convergence to full funding, and obviate the need to rebalance equity gains into fixed income. Historical evidence suggests that state and local pension investors might “re-risk” on the margin given equity underperformance relative to fixed income.

Which brings us to the big question, namely whether given the recent equity rout, the Fed might deviate from its own median projections to the dovish side.  As the discussion above suggests, which if accurate would imply that the Fed hopes to push yields higher through the equity vol channel, this is unlikely to happen if all the Fed can “force” is a 25bps equivalent tightening in financial conditions (via a 16% drop in stocks).

And sure enough, as we noted late last week, Cleveland Fed President Mester commented on exactly this concern, stating that “while a deeper and more persistent drop in equity markets could dash confidence and lead to a significant pullback in risk-taking
and spending, we are far from this scenario.”

Deutsche Bank agrees, and as its credit strategists argue “tightening financial conditions are one of the policy goals currently being pursued by the Fed to discourage excessive risk taking and promote financial stability.” ==

The tell? Keep an eye on rate vol: if and when it shoots up, that’s when the Fed may finally panic. And, as BofA’s CIO Michael Hartnett likes to remind his readers, “markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-28/dont-expect-fed-bail-out-what-convexity-flows-mean-repricing-fed-put

The trade of the year…nay! The decade…!!

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:43 on October 28, 2018  

T’is it not a fact that stawks are extremely ovresold? If there is no great bounce before the election…then the day before buy the nearest weekly call options on any stock index…if the republicans win the house then a rip-roaring rally will ensue–DOW should close up a grand or so the next day–could go on until year end…but could also reverse the same day–so if i got so lucky and only had 5 days or less on my options, I’d probably sell at least 1/2…maybe all the day after…I guess u could also buy a few put options too but I’d just stick to calls.

Portugeezer-thanks for the Burns-I always loved his poetry.

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:34 on October 28, 2018  

To A Louse

On Seeing One On A Lady’s Bonnet, At Church
1786
Type: Poem

O wad some Power the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An’ foolish notion:
What airs in dress an’ gait wad lea’e us,
An’ ev’n devotion!

Portugeezer

Posted by goldielocks @ 13:15 on October 28, 2018  

Too bad we can’t let the University group and libs including entertainment sector wanting free education, free healthcare, free everything get what they want as a separate group run by only democrats for a minimum of 5 years. Then when they take their pay check home and realize 70 percent of their money is taken out to pay for it you’ll really see the riots. They’re so stupid they don’t even realize they are voting against themselves and their own choices. Heathy don’t need a lot of health care, not going to college anymore? Too bad you have to pay for it anyways and your student loans too. That will include all the illegals getting free everything and your jobs that will be coming in 100,000 a day.
Funny thing is these illegals don’t even appreciate or respect them because they think their weak and stupid and can walk all over them. Media never says anything on what’s going on in Europe and how high unemployment rates are for they youth.

Liberals!

Posted by Portugeezer @ 12:29 on October 28, 2018  

Who would want to be associated with the university culture that has taken over.

It’s time some universities declared themselves against these foolish, short-sighted idiots.

“O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us!”

As for Billary, poilitics and political parties are all about stifling what the opposition holds dear.

In her case she wants to break the USA up, whereas the Trumpsters want to make the USA great again.

I’ve got an idea for Billary – the current government wants to hold the price of Gold down, why not sabotage them and float the price of PM’s?

Commish

Posted by Buygold @ 9:35 on October 28, 2018  

I am too. Hard for me to believe the left gets elected anywhere except maybe the northeast and left coast. Absolute lunatics.

Got a feeling the next week could be filled with more hysteria as their desperation sets in.

Buygold – Looking Forward to Nov 6th

Posted by commish @ 9:31 on October 28, 2018  

The left side are just loony tunes.

Morning Commish

Posted by Buygold @ 9:14 on October 28, 2018  

Keep forgetting to bookmark “Intellectual Frog Legs”

Thanks for posting, that guy is awesome and funny!

Election Spectacular

Posted by commish @ 8:11 on October 28, 2018  

FUN WATCH “Red November – The Frogleg Election Spectacular”

Hate crime charge against shooter, yah think!

Posted by goldielocks @ 0:29 on October 28, 2018  

Be shooting up a school, place of worship, movie theater, concert, or mall it should result in death penalty. These cowards like to target a place where people are unarmed.
What saddens me is after reading this story they said they don’t usually have armed guards except during high holidays.
Why should any place of worship in the US need armed guards at all.
These days you need them everywhere.
I hope the baby’s okay and gets special care and future counseling. He/she may later feel responsible for this day and must know he/she was not responsible but a potential victim. She/he may feel the world is not safe even where you pray but these days it isn’t.
There are bullet proof inserts you can put in back packs and people should start using them and give them to their children.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/27/us/pittsburgh-synagogue-active-shooter/index.html

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.