OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

The next year and a Half should be GOOD economy

Posted by Ororeef @ 22:36 on December 7, 2018  

with rates and Dollar headed down and GOLD Headed up…….at a steady pace….if the FED manages it right ….

From Twiggs no time to post the charts.

Posted by goldielocks @ 22:26 on December 7, 2018  

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600 broke support at 350, confirming a bear market in Europe. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Expect a decline to test 305/310.

The Footsie broke support at 6900, signaling a primary down-trend, while a Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. Expect a decline, with a target of 6000.

US markets are high on volatility but low on direction.

Average hourly earnings are rising, warning of further rate hikes from the Fed.

Growth in NonFarm Payroll x Average Weekly Hours is slowing, warning that real GDP growth is likely to follow.

The S&P 500 continues to range between 2600 and 2800. Volatility is rising but does not flag immediate danger. A large trough above 1% extending over at least six to eight weeks, however, would warn of elevated risk. Breach of 2600 would suggest a primary decline. Follow-through below 2550 would confirm.

The Nasdaq 100 shows a W-shaped bottom above primary support at 6500. Declining Money Flow is still above the zero line suggesting that the sell-off is secondary in nature. Breach of 6500 would warn of a primary decline. Follow-through below 6300 would confirm.

Bellwether transport stock Fedex broke support at 210 but entrance of Amazon as a competitor may be affecting the quality of the signal.

Quarterly Fedex Express package shipments were rising in August 2018. Statistics for Q2, ending November 30, are due for release on December 18 and I expect will continue to reflect a robust economy.

We are being barraged with bad news as the bears try to frighten the herd into a stampede. But the jury is still out. Europe is a worry. Rate hikes will continue but have little immediate impact on earnings. Valuations (P/E multiples) were high but have softened considerably. Bearish consumer sentiment may have some impact on sales. The yield curve is likely to invert but any impact is lagged by at least 12 months. Trade tariffs are a two-edged sword and will necessitate some adjustment. Tech leaders — Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft — are still more bullish than bearish. If one or two more enter a primary down-trend, then I will accept this is a bear market. Until then, there is a reasonable chance that this blows over.

This is an invention of mine The spike (black) line occurs when a bottom is reached ,it occurs when the number of short term instruments (or Bonds) it takes to buy an ounce of Gold reached maximum and the curve is about to reverse direction

Posted by Ororeef @ 22:20 on December 7, 2018  


Gold BUGS should keep an eye

Posted by Ororeef @ 21:50 on December 7, 2018  

on GOLD TAXES in INDIA   ..they seem to range from 0 to over 10 % ..The Government has trouble collecting taxes from people with no discernible income and NO bank account.

The Indians use Gold as Currency,gold chains are popular as you can cut off a link and sell it when you need to barter……So they tax gold until gold stops flowing in…that means people have buying power and GOLD is what the Goverment watches as Indians are the biggest Gold buyers in the world..  Usually February is when they set the Gold TAX rate…JEWELERS are the first to complain about the TAX as sales on Jewelry drop fast when Government taxes too much.. ..Jewelers want the rate down to 4 %. to stimulate the GOLD based  economy…Things most Gold BUGS dont know  !  and watch the wedding season   !   June (I think)  People demand low Gold tax as it approaches…Gold Gifts are customery..NOW you know !

Yield Curve ..You dont know what it means ?

Posted by Ororeef @ 21:25 on December 7, 2018  

just remember its like an Airplane ..when its headed up the economy  flies

when headed down for too long a period it crashes …steep moves should be avoided ….

Dont know what happened today ?Why ? today ?

Posted by Ororeef @ 20:43 on December 7, 2018  

yield-curve-12718irx dukIts easy….. short term “YIELDS” PEAKED today in $IRX,$UST1M  and almost all utilitys  PEAKED in “PRICE” or almost at tops…..Short term RATES stopped going up ….preventing a bad YIELD CURVE …  ,preventing a recession in the near termmmmmm..(FED knows what Trump knows)

He does know what he is talking about with the FED….and he’s usually ahead of them…..He’s good at Finance ! and thats why he’s rich !  and he will make America RICH   too ! ,if those idiot DEMS would go away…


I never followed the Chinese head of Interpol, Meng Hongwei abduction story in October.

Posted by macroman3 @ 18:52 on December 7, 2018  

Are there any dots to connect with Meng Wanzhou arrest in Vancouver through Interpol?


Posted by goldielocks @ 18:29 on December 7, 2018  

No it isn’t really. If you were a adult in the 50 s it was different. If you were a child in the 50 s the 70 s is when they were becoming adults. Meaning Everything we were made to believe growing up changed, almost over night. From then on it webt from bad to worse. I remember in the 70s even seniors on limited income were eating cat food. I’ve donated things mostly food when younger to at least 3 widows.

Don’t shoot the messenger, over at ZH, I assume the reports of her demise are premature…

Posted by macroman3 @ 18:17 on December 7, 2018  

If the US economy/market cannot handle positive real interest rates, what is with this “world’s greatest economy” narrative?

Macro data suggests Goldilocks is dead…

Bush Train

Posted by Maya @ 17:45 on December 7, 2018  


I avoided all the TV coverage, but there were some
nice pix posted of the Bush Funeral train for history.


The only time I made any decent money on that continent

Posted by overton @ 17:30 on December 7, 2018  


was more than  a decade ago on Jimbos TR was actually a good trading stock………….I even tried Uranium one time SRS ?    That didn’t end well.



zero AISC @ Durban deep

Posted by overton @ 17:25 on December 7, 2018  

Transports took a beating today

Posted by Ororeef @ 16:01 on December 7, 2018  

down almost twice the Dow in %.Golds did good…

Maddog – Yup

Posted by Buygold @ 15:57 on December 7, 2018  

Hitting us into the close. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Bummer, would have been great to see us really break free of the chains

Now we have to overcome the 1250 handle….scum will not let that go easily

Posted by Maddog @ 15:48 on December 7, 2018  

and guess what the 1 % level has held so far….

Unless you lived in the 1940’s

Posted by Ororeef @ 15:45 on December 7, 2018  

you have NO IDEA what Hardship was LIKE …Every family had a service member,you needed Ration Stamps to buy sugar ,coffee ,gasoline,shoes were in short supply ……Winters were brutal cold,most homes did not have Central Heating,just a iron stove  in the kitchen that warmed the rest of the cold water flat..I had to go down two flights to light a gas burner for the hot water tank before we had hot water to bath.Same when it was Washing day and that was not an auto matic washing machine .You had to feed the cloths through a Ringer to squeeze the water out before you hung them on a Line outside to dry..That was before Plastics ,Automatic transmissions,Storm windows,Refrigerators,most had ICE BOXES …YES the 1950’s were beautiful  compared to 1940’s  ..anybody alive then can tell you …..The Greatest generation was forged in a fire of WAR and deprivation ..You have NO idea !   Just be thankful you were from a later generation.   I was born in 1938 ,so I experienced both    ….


Posted by Buygold @ 15:34 on December 7, 2018  

Trying to avoid a close with a $6 handle.

CNBS not talking about it at all…

Here comes the DOW pump

Good move today in gold

Posted by redneckokie1 @ 15:32 on December 7, 2018  

A gap up Monday would look extremely bullish for gold and silver. It would gap through several forms of resistance which would then become support. The big laggard in the metals complex is platinum. It may be the short side of palladium and gold vs. platinum spreads.

JNUG had a great day today. Up 10% or so.



Mr. Copper, Maddog

Posted by Buygold @ 15:28 on December 7, 2018  

It doesn’t look like the rig is going to pump the DOW up unless they can do it in the last half hour.

I’d love to see pm’s and the shares close at the highs for a change.

goldielocks @ 15:07 on December 7, 2018

Posted by Ororeef @ 15:20 on December 7, 2018  

My recollections are very different than yours ,because I was there and it was East Coast..Yours seem to be more like 1970’s and probably West Coast ….very different ..

scum sending out a Mayday, Mayday……all hands to the pump …..gotta save the SM !!!!

Posted by Maddog @ 15:11 on December 7, 2018  

A little History of Mar- A- LAGO and How Trump rescued this Treasure !

Posted by Ororeef @ 15:11 on December 7, 2018  



Posted by goldielocks @ 15:07 on December 7, 2018  

Best days except for widows and their children. Gov has to get smarter than wars to boost the economy.

It was good times till politicians ruined it again.
All these kids grew up on the fifties made to believe things will be as good for them but got the rug pulled under them, buried in debt and rising prices. Most sons couldn’t just go where their dad worked even if they wanted to while most women learned they can’t stay home baking cookies, making cloths and raising their kids anymore. Some parents don’t even really know their kids anymore.

More people than you think smoked pot. One of my grandmas knew them during the early days 20s-30s and on. As time went on could see why she was trying to keep me away from actors even politics.

They had parties where it was brought out. She said she was R Reagan smoking it. She saw him at a party in Chicago.
Later I asked a patient who worked for him if he smoked pot. She said yeah after dinner with other politicians they’d bring bowls of it out. I only mentioned it after he was gone. Dont think his wife did though.

One thing about pot though, it’s mild doesn’t kill you, less you drive while just taking it. It helps a whole lot of health issues and PTSD due to calming effect it can have. Regan was the only one who knew that that wanted to legalize it. The others were hypocrites who may have smoked it but were against it for everyone else. I didn’t want it but didn’t begrudge those who did. I could smell pot on college kids.

Too bad those times are no longer here but like hearing about what we missed lol


Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:02 on December 7, 2018  

Yes fear, taking over from greed. Finally. The bean counters, think tanks, economic advisors have been delaying reality for a long time. Imo gold physical bottomed in late 2015, and the Trump campaign started interrupting the real trends in mid 2016. They squeezed a couple more years out of the so called recovery that started in 2009.

Mr. Copper

Posted by Buygold @ 14:44 on December 7, 2018  

Yes it does. Fear seems to be overwhelming the rig.

If we can hold our gains into the close I’d call this a great day for us bugs.

Beware the last hour ramp in the DOW. If that fails, Monday could be really ugly for the SM.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.