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STAWKS

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:04 on April 1, 2019  
(“APRIL SETS-UP FOR A BULL RUN IN SPX…BUT WITH A CAVEAT”), April seasonality for US Equities is a powerful phenomenon: April has posted the best avg monthly return for the S&P over the past 30 years (+1.64%) and actually posts the second-highest % hit-rate of “positive return instances” of any month over the past 90 years
More granularly, the first two weeks of April (dating back to 1994) have shown to be particularly “pro-cyclical” / “reflationary” in nature across seasonal US Equities sectors- and factor- behavior (Sectors: Materials +1.4% on the median over the first 2w of April; Fins +1.2%; Energy +0.8%; Discretionary +0.7%; Factors: Beta L/S +0.5%, Size L/S +0.5%; Cross-Asset: Crude +1.7%)
Perhaps the largest tailwind now for Equities is under-positioning from within the Leveraged Fund universe:
  • Long-Short Hedge Fund “Beta to SPX” remains just 15th %ile, while “Beta to Beta Factor” too is just 14th %ile 

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.