OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Buygold–I know u don’t–I was just. sayin yer. call was right..

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:29 on June 30, 2019  

Gold just printed 1400…13 off the low…

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:25 on June 30, 2019  

Don’t want to tempt fate, but no too bad

Posted by Maddog @ 19:23 on June 30, 2019  

This drop can be a C wave in the current down wave/consolidation for Gold…this drop may even be done.

Plus look at the bounce in Oil….knockin on $ 60’s door again.

fyi–no big deal here and G&S are bouncing very nicely

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:22 on June 30, 2019  
Last Updated: Jun 30, 2019 at 7:11 p.m. EDTDelayed quote

96.27

+0.140

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

R6 – I don’t want to win

Posted by Buygold @ 19:17 on June 30, 2019  

I didn’t want to be right. I wanted to be wrong.

Glad to see the losses have been cut in have since I saw the open at first, although it’s pretty rare to see big losses recovered in the overnights.

Oh well, gold is what it is.

Buygold- Morgan Stanley Chief Economist–“any ole. excuse’ll do to rally stocks

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:09 on June 30, 2019  

Lets see if this euphoria lasts until morning…when the sober truth of the  weekend meeting is realized…as expressed by the  likes of  Morgan Stanleys’ Chief Economist

Nothing Was Resolved Between The US And China, Meanwhile Global CapEx Has Ground To A Halt

Authored by Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist

And so it has come to pass: The much-anticipated meeting between the US and China is over. While we await further details, here are our reactions and takeaways, as we parse the initial readouts.
This is an uncertain pause – no immediate escalation, but still no clear path towards a comprehensive deal. The US administration has indicated that it will hold off on 25% tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion imports from China. There was also an agreement that both parties will roll back some non-tariff barriers (i.e., restrictions on high-tech exports by US companies) and that China would continue to purchase agricultural products from the US. However,as things stand, we lack clarity on whether real progress was achieved on the sticking points that caused talks to break down in the first place.
Hence, our overarching conclusion is that the developments over the weekend on their own don’t do enough to remove the uncertainty created by trade tensions, which began over a year ago and remain an overhang on corporate confidence and the macro outlook.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-30/nothing-was-resolved-between-us-and-china-meanwhile-global-capex-has-ground-halt

Buygold-you won! We’ll see by morning what this bull mkt. is made of…

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:45 on June 30, 2019  

A lot of people missed this move because they had their eye on the “high RSIs” and bearsih COTs…they. will be crowing “I told you so”…The U.S. dollar is down against every currency listed. on the Bloomberg. TV ticker except the euro…and the $ isn’t up much=just .154 which in no way justifies this open in gold…but we know “any ole excuse” will do to sell gold…actually the. euro is barely down=-.ooo6 on Bloomberg just now…

I much prefer this kind of open to an open where gold opens up 10 and is down 15 monday morn…there’s been a lot of big talk. by those that. were shut out that they would buy a pullback—at. the opening low tonight gold was down almost $60 from the high…let’s see if buyers step up…gold did bounce $11 off the low and silver bounced a dime…

Hey Maddog

Posted by Buygold @ 15:12 on June 30, 2019  

We’ll get our first look at the irrational SM exuberance in a few hours.

Just hoping the carnage in the pm sector isn’t too crazy.

DOW 1969 To JUNE 2019 Renko Chart Chart which is basicly a point & figure type chart ,it eliminates a lot of small moves between highs & Lows INTERESTING enough its approximately the Biblical 7 years between major tops ,Bottoms !

Posted by Ororeef @ 15:07 on June 30, 2019  

dow-1969-2019-renkochart

Buygold

Posted by Maddog @ 14:20 on June 30, 2019  

Stating the obvious, there are new reasons to sell PM’s, no new to buy and the scum always out there ….the good news is that the SM will be flying, so the scum will be happy…

Overton

Posted by goldielocks @ 13:41 on June 30, 2019  

Hyperbaric has a lot of good potential and that’s good. One of my brothers had those concussions plus joint issues.
Joe and his team visited PT at a hospital I worked at the time. He was a really nice guy.

Hey Ipso

Posted by Buygold @ 13:12 on June 30, 2019  

I’ve thought about that as well. After so many years of low prices there could be a lot of miners looking to lock in prices at $1400. Hedgers like NGD for example. Wouldn’t they be taking a risk of huge losses if the price continues to climb?

If so, I guess we’ll find out who the big hedgers are depending on how their shares trade?

Sorry to be so negative. I’ve had a lot of years of Pavlovian training. 🙁

Buygold

Posted by ipso facto @ 12:58 on June 30, 2019  

I wonder how many of those commercial sales of gold are miners who think this is a good price to lock in? I imagine that is part of the shorts.

Of course this is not the prime mover of prices …

R6

Posted by Buygold @ 10:11 on June 30, 2019  

Well, you obviously know that I’m hoping your instincts prevail. The Commercials did add 18K + longs in gold maybe for a “just in case” scenario? Or maybe just to dump in a couple seconds anytime gold shows a bit of strength.

You make a lot of good points.

I’ve just been burned so many times by false rally attempts I have a hard time believing any potential rally is real and I’ve actually never seen lopsided COT data like we’re seeing now fail when it comes to the downside.

Couple that with the great news out of the G-20 on trade with China and now Trump meeting with Kim in North Korea on nukes and lastly a thinly traded 4th of July week – things could get seriously ugly in a hurry.

Hope you’re right and my fear is unfounded.

 

 

Tough when the rules get changed on you

Posted by ipso facto @ 10:07 on June 30, 2019  

Eco Oro pulls out of Colombia gold concession amid legal battle -letter

https://www.mining.com/web/eco-oro-pulls-out-of-colombia-gold-concession-amid-legal-battle-letter/

Buygold–I saw that. article–only thing is that when

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:39 on June 30, 2019  

the PM rally topped in June 2016,  it was almost a 7 month run and very dynamic…gold’s only been in this launch about 2 to 4 wks…maybe he’s right but it seems too early…anyway…there are so many “hooks” that. have kept everyone out of this rally…I’ll just keep on trucking until proven differently.

Image result for keep on trucking

Sorry goldbugs-gold is a buggy. whip! People are flocking to crypto-currencies for safety-from manipulation, the tax man, anonimity ect ect.

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:32 on June 30, 2019  

Exit Scam? Dublin-Based Exchange Bitsane Vanishes With Users’ Funds

Earlier this month, reports surfaced that Polish crypto exchange Coinroom reportedly shut down its operations and disappeared with customer funds, having notified users they had just one day to withdraw funds before their contracts would be terminated.

Ireland-based cryptocurrency exchange Bitsane has apparently vanished, taking as many as 246,000 users’ crypto deposits with it. The news was reported by Forbes on June 27.

Dave Brady of Sprott watching the COT’s

Posted by Buygold @ 8:37 on June 30, 2019  

My take: I think Sprott and his guys are gold atheists. They make their money selling gold and silver vehicles and could care little whether metals go up or down.

Bottom line to this article is to be wary of the explosion in short interest and volume in general in the futures market, last time it happened was 2016 and gold fell 18%

I hope this time is different, because I can’t wait another 3 years to recover from that type of beating.

Gold At Risk Of A Sharp Pullback Before Higher Again

Open interest in Gold futures on the COMEX bottomed at 430k contracts on April 30. They have since risen to 526k on June 18.

TRADE DISPUTE=It’s going to go on for 10 or 15 years.’”

Posted by Richard640 @ 21:53 on June 29, 2019  

June 26 – CNBC (Jessica Bursztynsky): “Even if the U.S. and China come to some sort of an agreement at this week’s G-20 summit, the world’s two largest economies will still be fighting for much longer, conservative economics writer Stephen Moore told CNBC… ‘This trade dispute isn’t going to be solved in the next year or two. This is going to be the epic battle of our times,’ said Moore, who withdrew his name from President Donald Trump’s consideration in May for a nomination to the Federal Reserve Board. ‘It’s going to go on for 10 or 15 years.’”

2016-the year of the PM rally–“the highest level since MID-2016**, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.”

Posted by Richard640 @ 21:38 on June 29, 2019  

June 24 – New York Times (Avantika Chilkoti and Pat Minczeski): “Bonds, stocks and currencies are moving in tandem more often, as central-bank surprises and trade uncertainty assert their grip over markets. Known by investors as ‘risk-on, risk-off,’ the phenomenon happens when markets essentially split into two broad buckets that move together: risk-off, or haven assets, which rally when investors grow skittish; and risk-on, or growth assets, which rally when risk appetite returns.

A basket of assets that reflect either risk-on or risk-off sentiment has moved together nearly a quarter of the past 100 days through June 21,”the highest level since MID-2016**, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.”

with some $30 trillion tied up in difficult-to-trade instruments. A lot of that money is in mutual funds and exchange-traded products owned by mom and pop investors

Posted by Richard640 @ 21:30 on June 29, 2019  

June 28 – Bloomberg (John Gittelsohn and Nishant Kumar): “‘You can’t always get what you want,’ the Rolling Stones sang. The band didn’t have illiquid assets in mind, but investors who put their money into funds that put it into things that can be hard to sell in a hurry would certainly agree, as was shown by recent market turmoil. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said funds that hold illiquid assets but allow unlimited withdrawals have been ‘built on a lie.’ Carney warned that the risks are ‘systemic,’ with some $30 trillion tied up in difficult-to-trade instruments. A lot of that money is in mutual funds and exchange-traded products owned by mom and pop investors, raising questions of who’s responsible for keeping investors safe from having liquidity dry up at just the wrong time.”

Got gold?

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:27 on June 29, 2019  

Pension “Death Spiral” Crisis Reaching Fever-Pitch In The US

Put simply: the record, decade long bull market hasn’t been enough to save pensions.

the rally in everything was the strongest since 2011.

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:23 on June 29, 2019  

Market Instability Watch:

June 21 – Bloomberg (Sarah Ponczek): “One crossed-out word was all it took to send financial markets into a unified celebration that has few precedents in the past decade. Stocks rose to records, bonds surged, oil jumped almost 10% and even gold got into the act, as traders celebrated a dovish conversion at the Federal Reserve. One back-of-the-envelope measure shows the rally in everything was the strongest since 2011. Banished of late has been the soul searching that had afflicted investors for more than a year. Instead, investors closed their eyes and bought, fortified by the willingness of Jerome Powell’s central bank to forego its pledge to be ‘patient’ in formulating interest-rate policy.”

GOLD–good to go…on the launch pad…but maybe down sun nite then rite back up

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:34 on June 29, 2019  
And what about the possible impact of a positive G20 and momentum toward a U.S./China trade deal? Stocks, no surprise, are readily excitable. For global safe haven bonds, however, it’s of little consequence. How can this be? Because even a trade deal would at this point have minimal impact on what has become deep and rapidly worsening structural impairment. Trade deal or not, Chinese exports to the U.S. will decline, right along with capital investment. Even with a deal, the Chinese financial system faces the consequences of years of rapid expansion, as economic prospects deteriorate. Sure, 6% growth as far as the eye can see. This implies a further surge in consumer debt and even more dangerous mortgage finance and apartment Bubbles. Unparalleled overcapacity and maladjustment.
 

Record U.S. stock prices in October 2007 made it easy to dismiss the momentous ramifications associated with subprime borrowers (the “Periphery”) losing access to cheap Credit – to disregard the blow-up of two Bear Stearns structured Credit funds, widening Credit spreads, pockets of market illiquidity, and waning confidence in some sophisticated derivative structures. Acute monetary instability (i.e. equities and $140 crude) was mistaken for resilient bull markets.  

 

I would closely monitor unfolding developments in Chinese Credit – funding issues for small and mid-sized banks; ructions in the money markets; trust issues with repo collateral, inter-banking lending, and counterparties; vulnerabilities in local government financing vehicles (LGFV); heightened concerns for speculative leverage; and the overarching issue of the implicit Beijing guarantee for essentially the entire Chinese financial system. The overarching issue is one of prospective losses of monumental dimensions. These losses will have to be shared in the marketplace. As much as global markets bank on Beijing bankrolling China’s entire financial apparatus, the Chinese government will not welcome the prospect of bankrupting itself.  

The solution, of course, is for China to simply inflate its way out of debt trouble – just like everyone else. What an incredibly dangerous myth the world fully bought into. Reflation – in the U.S., China, Europe, Japan and globally – has only inflated the size and scope of Bubbles. China could see $4 TN of new Credit this year – debt of increasingly suspect quality. Such reckless Credit excess is placing the Chinese currency at great risk. It took about 18 months from the initial U.S. subprime blowup to full-fledged financial crisis. While one could certainly argue for earlier (i.e. December), China’s crisis clock began ticking no later than with last month’s takeover of Baoshang Bank.  

Sound like today?=Meanwhile, bond yields completely detached from equities and traditional fundamental factors. Why were yields collapsing in the face of booming Credit growth and inflating risk markets?

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:18 on June 29, 2019  

This is where it gets interesting. Rapid Credit growth throughout 2007 underpinned stock prices, general consumer confidence and overall economic activity. Nominal GDP expanded at a 5% rate during 2007’s first half, 4.3% in Q3 and 4.1% during Q4. 

Meanwhile, bond yields completely detached from equities and traditional fundamental factors. Why were yields collapsing in the face of booming Credit growth and inflating risk markets? Because the preservation of “Terminal Phase” excess was fomenting a late-cycle parabolic rise in systemic risk: inflating quantities of increasingly risky Credit instruments, dysfunctional risk intermediation, destabilizing market speculation, and extreme late-cycle imbalances/maladjustment. Stated somewhat differently: efforts to sustain the boom were exacerbating structural impairment. The bond market discerned an increasingly untenable situation.  

History Rhymes. China’s Aggregate Financing (approx. non-government system Credit growth) jumped $1.60 TN during 2019’s first five months, 31% ahead of comparable 2018 Credit growth. So far this year, Aggregate Financing is expanding at better than 12% annualized. This is a rate of growth sufficient to sustain the economic Bubble (Beijing’s 6.5% growth target), apartment prices, corporate profits, stock prices and general market and economic confidence.  

But extending the “Terminal Phase” has ensured a historic parabolic surge in systemic risk. Consumer (chiefly mortgage) borrowings have increased 17.2% over the past year (40% in two years!). Thousands of uneconomic businesses continue to pile on debt. Unprecedented over- and mal-investment runs unabated. Millions more apartments are constructed. The bloated Chinese banking system continues to inflate with loans of rapidly deteriorating quality.  

Global risk markets have been conditioned for faith both in Beijing’s endless capacity to sustain the boom and global central bankers’ determination to maintain system liquidity and economic expansion. So long as Chinese Credit keeps flowing at double-digit rates, inflating perceived wealth ensures Chinese spending and finance continue to

Older Posts »
Go to Top

Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.