OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.


Posted by goldielocks @ 22:57 on June 8, 2019  

I’m not sure either but it’s a change. Their typical move in the last years is 200 or 100 up from the lows then a smack down.
Did you see all the GOPs including fake patriot Cruz whining about the tarrifs with Mexico over the border they didn’t do anything about when they had the chance. That was a smart move, money talks, especially to Mexico. But then we got Biden telling China to just wait till the elections he’ll give them a better deal after they were ready to sign. He’ll get ” him” a deal alright.

Captain H–I think you and Ballinger have the most valid fix on the gold market

Posted by Richard640 @ 20:12 on June 8, 2019  

and I am going with you two…until I see your scenarios violated…only them will I know something has changed

You go Buddah

Posted by Buygold @ 20:08 on June 8, 2019  

I’m pretty sure we’re all with ya!

Not sure we all think you’re gonna be right but hey, I’m pulling for ya!

China is susceptible to collapse–they got big time bank rescue problems–it’s all outlined in the Credit Bubble Bulletin

Posted by Richard640 @ 20:01 on June 8, 2019  

June 5 – Financial Times (Don Weinland and Archie Zhang): “A $647bn blind spot in financial reporting by China’s city and rural commercial banks is fuelling investor concerns that more of the country’s lenders face government intervention or collapse in the wake of the state takeover of Baoshang Bank. Baoshang was one of 19 banks with a combined Rmb4.47tn ($647bn) in assets that have yet to publish 2018 financial results, according to… Barclays. The delays are a potential sign of a build-up in non-performing loans and leave investors blind to how many of those assets may have turned into bad debt, as was the case with Baoshang, analysts said.”


Options-shmapshuns–charts-shmarts-fugget. about it=Gold’s time is here-it’s inevitable-read em and weep:

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:43 on June 8, 2019  

And if there is any doubt that market prices have completely detached from underlying fundamentals, look no further than Italy. Italian 10-year yields collapsed 31 bps this week to 2.36%. Spectacular panic buying across global bond markets.

Powell, Draghi, Kuroda and the like fully appreciate that a decade of ultra-loose monetary policies has fueled dangerous Bubbles. But they’ve thrown in the towel; a fight they are afraid to confront. The Fed has not only abandoned “normalization,” it has deserted its primary responsibility for safeguarding financial stability. We’re witnessing nothing short of a historic failure in the Bernanke inflationary policy doctrine, today masked by precarious Speculative Dynamics throughout the risk markets and a historic melt-up in global sovereign bond prices.

History has never experienced such powerful financial Bubbles on a globalized basis. The scope of international trend-following and performance-chasing finance is unprecedented (many tens of Trillions). And with these Bubbles at risk of bursting, central bankers are resolved to employ “whatever it takes” monetary stimulus to hold dislocation at bay. The upshot is only further emboldened market participants, more intense speculation, a greater accumulation of speculative leverage and even more precarious “Terminal Phase” Bubble excess.

ZERO BOUND INTEREST RATES=Swiss 10-year yields down three bps to negative 0.52%

Ten-year Treasury yields declined four bps this week to 2.08%. German bund yields dropped another six bps this week to a record low negative 0.26%, with Swiss 10-year yields down three bps to negative 0.52%. Japanese JGB yields declined three bps to negative 0.12%. Some of the more spectacular yield moves have unfolded away from the typical safe havens. Spanish 10-year yields dropped 16 bps this week to a record low 0.55%, and Portuguese yields sank 19 bps to an all-time low 0.62%. Greek yields fell eight bps to 2.81%.  



Posted by Captain Hook @ 19:05 on June 8, 2019  

No need to see the lunacy at work…look what happened yesterday with an extremely bullish Employment Report.

JNUG, NUGT, PM shares were down.

Why do you think that happened?

10 years ago when the ETF gambling was not so pervasive PM shares would have been through the roof.

Samb – when we have an up cycle I’m just like everybody else — everything is crossed it keeps going.

That said — I have a memory (i can remember the last decade as I chronicled much of it) — and I refuse to live in an eight-year old’s bubble mentality.

I just wish we had more adults in the room all the way up and down the line.


Hi Samb

Posted by Buygold @ 18:45 on June 8, 2019  

Good to see you posting again!

Been a long time since we’ve seen you around these parts.

I guess all I can say is that I don’t know anything and haven’t for years. Just know it hasn’t been good, and I don’t know shite other than charts have been relatively useless when trying to predict upside action, but they’ve been great at predicting downside, as have the ridiculous COT’s.

Hope all is well with you!

It’s Crazy

Posted by commish @ 17:58 on June 8, 2019  

Buygold @13;32

Posted by Samb @ 15:40 on June 8, 2019  

Hook is all over it during Int. downturns but relatively silent during Int. cycle upturns. When the cycle turns up then is it because all these mis-informed specs  suddenly got their proper religion? Even the Hook Bible says it: Thou shalt not play options or Etf’s.  All would be well in gold land if these speculators would just wake up to this truth!   These speculators are really but a flea on the Central Bank’s and Banksters backs. But when you, as an analyst,  still can’t figure $golds downturn from its highs some 8 years ago then you must promulgate a theory that will absolve you. It has to be the option/Etf players. Try not to think any harder or state that you just don’t really know.

Captain – R640’s article should wet your whistle and give you the opportunity to prove your point about speculators

Posted by Buygold @ 13:32 on June 8, 2019  

“Today’s bullish bias echoes a broader trend seen among GLD options traders. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 95,263 calls were bought to open in the past two weeks, compared to just 49,669 puts. The July series, in particular, has been popular in recent sessions, with almost 41,500 contracts collectively added at the July 126, 128, and 131 calls in the past five days.”

I don’t watch CNBC anymore but I imagine the Najarian brothers on “Fast Money” were going crazy bullish about the options action on GLD.

Personally, without silver and the shares running ahead, I think those option players are going to get wiped out.

Maybe the basis for a new poll. Where will gold close at the end of June? Below $1300, Above $1300, Above $1320, Above $1350, Above $1400? Below $1280?

Richard640 @ 10:00

Posted by Captain Hook @ 12:01 on June 8, 2019  

With speculators now positioned for a breakout off a rate cut…your theory should see a good test in coming days.


Maybe gold won’t go to the moon but this sets a sold floor. under it

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:18 on June 8, 2019  

Here’s My Prediction: If the Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates 3 or 4 Times by Dec 11, Markets Are Going to Crap

Stock market and corporate bond market are in la-la-land, pricing in an economic boom. They’re not seeing a rate-cut economy. So why would the Fed?

Granted, Wall Street always wants rate cuts, no matter what. But this is getting funny. The probability of three and even four rate cuts by December 11 are suddenly gaining the most favor in how the market are betting on 30-day Fed Fund futures. And the markets are now pricing in practically a zero-percent chance – currently a 2.2% chance up from a 0.8% chance yesterday – of no rate cut by December 11, the day of the Fed’s post-meeting announcement and press conference.

In other words, the market is betting there’s just a near-zero chance the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate will remain at the current range between 2.25% and 2.50% (chart via Investing.com):

Here’s My Prediction: If the Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates 3 or 4 Times by Dec 11, Markets Are Going to Crap


Jun 7, 2019 at 12:35 pm

You’re right. I’m incredulous just reading this. It’s absolutely the silliest and stupidest thing I’ve ever witnessed in the history of the central bank, centrally planned, financed, debt-monetized phony baloney economy. It’s embarrassing actually. The only thing left now is the bottom falling out of full faith and credit in, and total collapse of, the US finance system itself.


Jun 7, 2019 at 11:22 am

– The FED is going to cut (very) soon. The 3 month T-bill rate took a dive today (june 7, 2019).


Gold is just..gold
Jun 7, 2019 at 3:50 am

Silver now is about the same as it was 10 years ago. Gold is about USD 200 above its 10 year old price. Pennies.

So tell me, where’s the price gonna go…..as the economy/currencies/d’ entire world goes to crap thanks to the PhD geniuses/criminals running the joint.

But what would I know as much smarter than I have said… “Gold is just….gold..”


Max Power
Jun 6, 2019 at 9:42 pm

Some things really don’t change… recessions always start –

AFTER the yield curve has inverted and already begins to steepen

After consumer confidence has reached its normal cyclical peak

Once Corporate debt to GDP reaches a cycle peak based on historical peaks

Once House price growth starts plateauing

Unemployment rate stops decreasing and stabilizes at a low rate for a short time

…All these are obviously pointing to an upcoming downwards trend in the business cycle. While the economy is still robust today, these signs are all pointing to the party coming to an end in the next 6-12 months.

Only problem is that we are starting all this at a Fed funds rate of just 2.5% and an already bloated central bank balance sheet, oh and an already large fiscal deficit (certainly for what are considered ‘good’ times).

Watch out.


Posted by Richard640 @ 10:00 on June 8, 2019  

[short term, this may be.  bearish, but big picture implications are that gold is coming back on on pro and amateur traders/money managers radar–believe it or not, there comes a recognition time where the overbought/oversold game and too much call buying become irrelevant–not saying we are there yet]
Published on Jun 7, 2019 at 2:17 PM

Gold prices have been red-hot amid recent trade tensions, and today, August-dated gold futures locked up their eighth straight daily win as a weak jobs report weighed on the U.S. dollar. Below, we’ll take a look at what this hot streak has done for gold exchange-trade fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).

At last check, GLD was up 0.8% to trade at $126.77, and earlier nabbed a fresh annual high of $127.25. In addition to its own eighth straight win — its longest winning streak since late 2017/early 2018 — GLD is about to wrap up its best week since September 2017. Plus, the fund’s surge has attracted a bevy of options traders.

Daily Stock Chart GLD

More specifically, GLD has seen 210,000 options change hands today, double what’s typically seen at this point, and total options volume pacing in the elevated 99th annual percentile. The September 133 and 139 calls are most active due to matching blocks of 14,900 that traded earlier. This could indicate the initiation of a possible long call spread, where a speculator is targeting a move up to $139 by September options expiration.

Today’s bullish bias echoes a broader trend seen among GLD options traders. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 95,263 calls were bought to open in the past two weeks, compared to just 49,669 puts. The July series, in particular, has been popular in recent sessions, with almost 41,500 contracts collectively added at the July 126, 128, and 131 calls in the past five days.


Posted by Buygold @ 9:57 on June 8, 2019  

Perhaps, Bloomberg should be made to take a horse and buggy everywhere he travels around the US. If he has the need to go overseas, surely he can take a sailboat.

All in the name of climate change of course.

Whatever he intends to impose on the rest of us, should be imposed on that piece of shit too.

Never mind the thousands or hundreds of thousands of workers he intends to impose hardships upon their lives. The guy should be strung up by his gonads in Times Square. Effing New York City should eliminated from the map.

Ororeef–couldn’t happen to a nicer guy-I am surprised it hasn’t happened here yet.

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:52 on June 8, 2019  

He wants to keep us dependant on MID EAST OIL to keep us Military there ,tail waggin the DOG ..DEVIOUS !

Posted by Ororeef @ 9:15 on June 8, 2019  

Bloomberg Pledges $500M to Get Rid of Coal, Slow Natural Gas Production

CORRECTS HIS TITLE - Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg speaks at a news conference at a gun control advocacy event, Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2019, in Las Vegas. Bloomberg on Tuesday applauded the recent passage of gun background check law in Nevada, but said he has yet to decide …
AP Photo/John Locher

7 Jun 2019652


Michael Bloomberg is giving away more of his personal fortune to advance his radical environmental agenda, this time pledging $500 million to shutter every coal mine in the United States and slow the production of cheap, clean, and plentiful natural gas.

Push Back German style..

Posted by Ororeef @ 9:07 on June 8, 2019  

German Pro Mass Migration Politician Found Shot Dead

FRANKFURT AM MAIN, GERMANY - DECEMBER 18: The 1st police station in the city center pictured on December 18, 2018 in Frankfurt, Germany. Police have expanded an internal investigation into a possible network of neo-Nazis among police officers in Frankfurt and the outlying region. The existence of a possible network …
Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

7 Jun 2019936


German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) politician Walter Lübcke, who recommended anti-mass migration Germans to leave the country, was found dead at his house, having been shot in the head.

Morning Goldie

Posted by Buygold @ 7:23 on June 8, 2019  

Well, I can say this for certain.

Charts have captured 1 out of the last 10 gold breakouts.

Lets share

Posted by Ororeef @ 2:16 on June 8, 2019  

some strategies for dealing with FREE money and NEG interest  money ,besides paying off debt and mortgages  !!! Buyin like GOLD ,and whatever in case the Gubberment restricts that !  Lets Plan for contingencies  ..

“If you thought you saw QE before, this is going to be QE squared,” Posen said.

Posted by Ororeef @ 1:49 on June 8, 2019  

The Federal Reserve’s two-day Chicago strategy conference laid the groundwork for the aggressive use of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, to counter the next recession, experts who attended the forum said.

With short-term interest rates in a range of 2.25%-2.5%, the Fed does not have a lot of ammunition to fight the next downturn. In the past, the Fed was able to slash rates by 5 percentage points to stimulate the economy as needed.

So the Fed is going to use “pretty aggressive, desperate, measures,” to stem the next recession, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.


Too funny

Posted by goldielocks @ 1:38 on June 8, 2019  



Posted by goldielocks @ 1:30 on June 8, 2019  

The Yield Differential between 10-year (purple) and 3-month (lime) Treasury yields is now negative, a reliable early warning of recession.

Corporate bond spreads, the difference between lowest investment grade (Baa) and Treasury yields, are rising. An indicator of credit risk, a spread above 2.5% (amber) is an early warning of trouble ahead, while 3.0% (red) signals that risk is elevated.

Falling employment growth is another important warning. Annual employment growth below 1.0% (amber) would normally cause the Fed to cut interest rates. In the current scenario, that is almost certain.

What is holding the Fed back is average hourly wages. Annual growth above 3.0% is indicative of a tight labor market and warns against cutting rates too hastily.

Stats for Q1 2019 warn that compensation is rising as a percentage of net value added, while profits are falling. As can be seen from the previous two recessions (gray bars), rising compensation (as % of NVA) normally leads to falling profits and a recession. Cutting interest rates would accelerate this.img_3070






Dollar and gold from Twiggs

Posted by goldielocks @ 1:22 on June 8, 2019  

We all know 1350 is constant resistance but he has a more moderate PO on Gold. Usually I’m more conservative but see a potential in current atmosphere to hit a higher PO or near it even if brief.
He’s pointing to a possible recession which I’ll post next. As we are expecting to get hammered back down on the positive side if we have any left there is a possibility the institutional or level 1 s could come in early on Monday before we can see a breach of 1350 and gap up the price. Guess we’ll find out. Keep in mind if it does it will try to fill the gap by the next day so might get a better price the next day. Keep in mind also there are dollar shorts. Also oil heading to 50 which seems to be around its support area. Dyodd

Gold surges as the Dollar falls
The latest rally in Gold reinforces my bearish outlook for equities. Gold and Treasuries are rising as investors seek a safe haven from the likely turmoil in equities.
The Dollar Index plunged below its LT rising trendline, warning of a test of 95.

Gold responded, testing resistance at $1350. Breakout above $1350 would offer a medium-term target of $1400/ounce.


Gold Train

Posted by Maya @ 1:04 on June 8, 2019  


150 years ago, America was tied together
by a ribbon of steel.


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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.