Loading ...CNBC. evening Brief
Stocks just posted their best first half in more than 20 years. The direction of the second half could be determined in its first week.
The ideal scenario for Wall Street next week would be a trade truce, followed by a TEPID jobs report that allows the Fed to step in, but one that doesn’t indicate a deeper economic slowdown than just a soft patch.
Over the weekend is the big trade meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 summit. Wall Street’s expectations are low, Michael Bloom reports. So a cease- fire in which the U.S. agrees to hold off on additional tariffs and restart talks but keep current tariffs could be enough to get a relief rally.
And then once the G-20 is over, traders will turn their sights to next Friday’s jobs report. As Patti Domm notes, economists expect 158,000 jobs were created in June, up from a disappointing 75,000 in May.
Ironically, traders may want a number weaker than that, giving the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut rates more aggressively (50 basis points?) at its meeting later next month.
Big picture: Diminishing inflation and slower growth have positioned the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates as soon as July to help prolong a record 10-year-old economic expansion and reassure investors, households and businesses.