OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

We’re golden! Gold to da moon!—–There are key elements of the current environment reminiscent of 2007.-BOOYAH!

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:05 on June 29, 2019  
Why do bond markets at home and abroad have about zero fear of a Trump/Xi agreement with positive ramifications for risk market sentiment and economic prospects (with, seemingly, receding central bank dovishness)? Because, I would posit, the collapse of bond yields is chiefly about unfolding global financial fragilities rather than trade disputes and slower growth. More specifically, faltering Chinese Bubbles significantly raise the likelihood of the type of global de-risking/deleveraging dynamic that would wreak havoc on securities and derivatives markets across the globe.  
There are key elements of the current environment reminiscent of 2007. Recall that after the initial subprime scare that pushed the S&P500 down to 1,370 in mid-August, the index then rallied back to post a record high 1,576 on October 11th.

This is the best analysis about the Xi-Trump meeting and its affect on stocks and interest rates

Posted by Richard640 @ 16:38 on June 29, 2019  

Looser monetary policy

[We would expect that the President now views tariff threats as not only a successful negotiating tactic following the immigration agreement with Mexico but also a useful tool in pressing for looser monetary policy–Best-Case Scenario Has a Worst-Case Twist]

My Best-Case ScenarioKnave Dave

So, I did say my “worst-case scenario” did not seem like the most likely scenario to play out from the G-20 summit. Now we know my “best-case scenario” and most likely scenario is the one Trump and Xi have chosen, but what does that mean for the month of July?

Here was the best-case scenarioXi and Trump agree to come out of their meeting sounding like there is hope for a future agreement soon (albeit with nothing specific that has been agreed upon). We all know there is no chance they come out with a deal. So, the best hope is they come out with Trump talking (again) like a deal is imminent and, therefore, he’ll hold off on his tariff increases a little longer. The market feels relief and breaks resoundingly through its eighteen-month ceiling. The remaining indices that have not cleared through their upper barrier manage also to poke through to a new high and manage to hold … for a little while.

Market Mania Bets the Cash Registers Go Xi Ching!”

In that scenario, I said the next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that (and I probably should have been clearer originally) I meant those indices like the Dow that were very close to breaking past their old heights, not those like the Russel 2000 and NYSE that are still deep in their bearish zone.
Here sits the Dow trapped at its old summit of nine months ago:
It has remained trapped at this height for a year and a half:
With the Xi summit being something Trump can trumpet about for one or two toots, I would not be surprised to see the Dow break through its past ceiling due to the market’s relief that the G-20 did not result in tariff escalation that had been threatened. However, I also gave a major caveat in my best-case scenario, so hang on:
Then what? All is roses, right? Well, the market has clearly already priced in a trade agreement being reached — also, with apparently 100% certainty — so hope won’t buy a lot more headroom at the market’s top because it’s the same hope that investors have been spending all along. Buybacks are now temporarily frozen out. Even Crazy Cramer is saying the economy looks worse than what the market thinks, He has even stated that, with all of his many executive contacts, he knows of no company that is not going to come in with lower earnings than last quarter. Economic data has been trending down. Forward projections are already being written ahead of any Chinese trade deal, so they won’t likely go up just because, once again, the Trumpet blares an announcement of a trade deal on the horizon. (The market will go up if Trump makes such a proclamation (again), but corporate reports aren’t going to change because of it.)
 We would expect that the President now views tariff threats as not only a successful negotiating tactic following the immigration agreement with Mexico but also a useful tool in pressing for looser monetary policy. If so, this suggests that the White House will at least threaten further tariff increases and might follow through with some of them…. 

Latest topping action looks like a Head Fake to me..!,a pause !not a TOP !Its missing in the renko Chart as its price ratio to $gold continues down as price continues up ! ,we shall see……

Posted by Ororeef @ 16:16 on June 29, 2019  

head-fake-not-on-renko-chart renko-no-head-fake

R6 – Agree

Posted by Buygold @ 12:44 on June 29, 2019  

I also think they’ll cut and also believe the other article about the US headed toward zero interest rates forever because the debt is unsustainable without it. The debt is unsustainable anyway.

The scum may need to try to carpet bomb gold ahead of the cut in July. I think they’ll do 25 bps, not 50 but who knows? Bullard is one of the Fed’s chief mouthpiece liars.

Not really looking forward to Monday, especially with a thinly traded holiday week coming up.

Tariffs…shmariffs…gold’s going up with or without them=The FED must cut and/or keep rates low

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:11 on June 29, 2019  

It’s Recognition Time for gold-why. now? No one ever knows!…but a zero-bound interest regime is what gold is sensing


U.S. Is Heading to a Future of Zero Interest Rates Forever
By Noah Smith
Bloomberg News
Thursday, June 27, 2019
The Congressional Budget Office has just released its projections for the U.S. federal budget during the next 30 years. The picture is one of steadily rising deficits. the growth in deficits is mostly about two things. First, government health care spending is projected to grow, which is partly due to population aging and partly because the CBO predicts that medical costs will keep going up. Second, and even more importantly, the CBO predicts that interest rates will rise, forcing the government to spend much more on simply paying interest on its debt.  that will cause an exponential increase in the amount the government has to pay for debt service. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:

Buygold-I still think the rate cut is. secure for July-it must be cause the sole mission of the FED

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:03 on June 29, 2019  

is to inflate financial assets—but if this interpretation is right, we might have a problem…but what HAPPENED in Japan was the EXPECTED outcome….and stocks really soar and gold didn’t crash=


Finally, global markets will breathe a sigh of relief on news of the resumption in U.S.-China trade talks, even as an official deal remains elusive, and there is no indication of how the two countries will bridge the most difficult aspect of a feud that has emerged beyond simple trade and now affects most aspects of US and Chinese life.
The flip-side is that with trade talks back on, the Fed will feel far less pressure to ease in July, and since in June stocks exploded higher on hopes that the Fed will cut rates as much as 50bps next month, such a reversal in US-China relations could potentially prevent Powell from capitulating, and leave the Fed on hold, an outcome which would lead to a sharp drop in US capital markets. Indeed, in recent weeks, the S&P has returned to record highs, treasury yields have tumbled to their lowest level in years. The Japanese yen, a traditional beneficiary of flight to quality, has gained, while the U.S. dollar has slipped across the board, including against China’s yuan.

R6 – Concur, any old excuse to hit gold

Posted by Buygold @ 9:55 on June 29, 2019  

The SM seemed to anticipate good news on Friday with the DOW finishing up 110 and the USD flat.

We’ll see but this will definitely gives them a reason to goose the dollar and spike rates and the SM – not a positive recipe for pm’s.

and the beat goes on….

Buygold–I am not sure but any ole excuse to crush gold has always been the operating premise

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:38 on June 29, 2019  

Remember the night Trump won, DOW futures were down 800 pts and gold up. $50….by morning all had reversed…maybe we’ll get off easy with gold opening down then recovering

We got all weekend to sift through. the various interpretations

Any ole excuse to run stocks up…


stocks and gold go up together–that’s exactly what happened. so far—cause when stocks are inflating the EVERYTHING bubble keeps inflating

R6 – I’m thinking gold will get crushed on that news and the SM will soar. Agree the Fed will cut .25 bps in July though but Monday could be ugly

Posted by Buygold @ 8:52 on June 29, 2019  

Ceasefire: US, China Trade Talks “Back On Track” After Trump Concedes On Huawei

“Now comes the hard work of finding consensus on the most difficult issues in the relationship, but with a commitment from the top we’re hopeful this will put the two sides on a sustained path to resolution.”

Trump/XI talks–not much happened-FED rate cut. in July safe, probably

Posted by Richard640 @ 5:34 on June 29, 2019  

Osaka, Japan (CNN)US President Donald Trump says trade talks with China have been successfully revived and new tariffs are on hold after his highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping—-

  • Trump suggested he will be reversing his government’s decision to ban American companies from selling products to Chinese tech giant Huawei.
“We’re right back on track. We’ll see what happens,” Trump said after the talks wrapped. The leaders met for more than an hour.
Later, Trump told reporters he would hold off — FOR NOW (!) — on imposing new tariffs that he’d threatened IF an agreement couldn’t be reached, though said existing duties would remain.
“I promised that for at least the time being we’re not going to be lifting tariffs on China. We won’t be adding an additional tremendous amount — we have $350 billion left that could be tariffed, taxed — we’re not going to be doing that,” Trump told reporters at his closing G20 news conference in Japan.As to whether or not we can make a deal, time will tell,” Trump said US officials said this week there has been little indication over the past weeks that China is willing to cede to American demands they reform their economy.

no CBD for Joe, he went hyperbaric O2 for cranium tune up

Posted by overton @ 22:47 on June 28, 2019  

Maddog @ 16:25

Posted by ipso facto @ 22:35 on June 28, 2019  

“Trump to unleash Hell”

On the bright side maybe the Iranians will be able to receive enough income so that they don’t feel so desperate as to do something stupid like close the Straits.

Looks like COT impact suspended for now,,,

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:28 on June 28, 2019  

[anybody. remember 5 or 6 weeks ago-maybe longer-we had a couple of super bullish. COT reports–we got all bulled up and nothing happened? This 2 week 

rally. took place in spite of horrific COTs…makes ya wonder bout their value…they caused. a lot of traders to miss out–and today we have another bearish one]

goldielocks @ 15:20

Posted by ipso facto @ 19:24 on June 28, 2019  

Absurd ain’t it! At least it’s gonna cost the Demos. Not many Americans as looney as those candidates!

To put it into perspective

Posted by Alex Valdor @ 19:18 on June 28, 2019  

Where the Hell is the SEC ?


No coordinated manipulation here folks …just move on

Posted by Alex Valdor @ 19:14 on June 28, 2019  

Apologies for the fuzzy blowup .
This is the Kitco three day graph for gold at the close (17:00 EDT) …all within pennies of each other, on days when when the swings were of the order of tens of dollars intraday .


Credit Suisse. isn’t. some nut job-perma-bull gold site…at least the last time I checked

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:16 on June 28, 2019  

Credit Suisse: Gold May Retest Record High of $1,921

28, June

“Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,” according to David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse.

Gold has established a multiyear base that could provide the platform for a “significant and long- lasting rally” for gold, he said. We concur with this view and indeed are more bullish as we see gold going to well over $3,000/oz in the long term

Gold traders will be reluctant to go short today due to the scale of risks ahead of the likely Trump and Xi talks. Indeed some may move to cover their short positions as if there is no progress in ending the year-long trade dispute or indeed tensions escalate, gold will likely go higher.

Gold’s mood music has changed radically in the last month and banks, hedge funds and other institutions internationally have become much more bullish on gold. They are revising upwards their price forecasts for gold in 2019 and the coming years. 

Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley are two such institution and they see gold having strong gains in the second half of 2019.

Credit Suisse analysts, like us, see gold returning to it’s record nominal high of $1,921/oz.

“Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,” according to David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse.

Gold has established a multiyear base that could provide the platform for a “significant and long- lasting rally” for gold, he said. We concur with this view and indeed are more bullish as we see gold going to well over $3,000/oz in the long term

R6 – The only thing unusual in that report to me was in gold

Posted by Buygold @ 18:04 on June 28, 2019  

*The commercials increased their longs by 18,235 contracts


G & S are either going to get slaughtered or are going to da moon. Which??? I gots no clue!

What a joke-like the only reason. to buy. gold is if the. FED lowers rates 1/4 pt…if not, then sell all your. gold

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:03 on June 28, 2019  


Combine the prospects of vast central-bank easing with possible fireworks in the Persian Gulf…and you have your answer.

What about the bond market?

The bellwether 10-year Treasury has slipped to 1.98%…its lowest point since the 2016 election.

And so the infinitely expanding gulf between stock market and bond market widens further yet.

One vision is bright, cheery, trusting. The other is dark, dour…and morose.

One of these markets will be proven right. One will be proven wrong.

Our money is on the bond market.


Meantime, it is 10 years into the present economic “expansion.” Next month will establish a record.


How is the business at all sustainable?


Corporations have loaded themselves to the gunwales with cheap debt – cheap debt coming by way of the Federal Reserve.

First-quarter nonfinancial corporate debt increased to $9.93 trillion. That is a record.

And this we learn from the Treasury Department:

Today’s nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest since 1947…when records began.

And here we spot a straw swaying menacingly in the wind…

Fitch informs us nearly $10 billion of high-yield corporate bonds have already defaulted in the second quarter – double the amount of first-quarter defaults.

Warns Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer at SkyBridge Capital:

“Whatever the cause [of the next recession] may be, the acute point of pain will be in corporate credit.”

Depend on it.

Finally we come to the fabulously and grotesquely indebted American consumer.

Total US consumer debt notched $14 trillion in the first quarter – exceeding the roughly $13 trillion before the financial crisis.

Twenty-three per cent of Americans claim that life’s essentials – food, rent, utilities – constitute the bulk of their credit card purchases.

And 60% of Americans hold less than $1000 in savings.

How will they keep up come the next recession? How will they meet their debts?

They already groan under the load – and the economy is still expanding.

Meantime, the cost of a middle-class lifestyle has surged 30% over the past two decades.

But Pew Research reports the average American worker wields no more purchasing power today…than he did 40 years ago.

That is, he has jogged in place 40 years.

The past 10 years of central bank intervention on a grand and heroic scale have worked little benefit.

The coming recession will bring yet more intervention – on an even grander and more heroic scale.

But why should we expect it to yield any difference whatsoever?

For the overall view, we turn to Mr.Sven Henrich:

“The grand central-bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention that have brought you record global debt to the tune of $250 trillion and record wealth inequality are about to embark on a new round…The new global rate-cutting cycle begins anew before the last one ever ended. Brace yourselves, as no one, absolutely no one, can know how this will turn out…

“We are witnessing a historic unraveling here. Everything every central banker has uttered last year was completely wrong. Every projection they made over the last 10 years has been wrong…Why place confidence in people who are staring at the ruins of the policies they unleashed on the world and are about to unleash again?

“All the distortions of 10 years of cheap money, debt, wealth inequality, zombie companies, negative debt…will all be further exacerbated by hapless and scared central bankers whose only solution to failure is to embark on the same cheap money train again. All under the banner to ‘extend the business cycle’ at all costs. Never asking whether they should nor considering the consequences. But since they are not elected by the people and face zero consequences for failure, they don’t have to consider the collateral damage they inflict.”



Lovin this scenario…

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:48 on June 28, 2019  

CNBC. evening Brief

Stocks just posted their best first half in more than 20 years. The direction of the second half could be determined in its first week. 

The ideal scenario for Wall Street next week would be a trade truce, followed by a TEPID  jobs report that allows the Fed to step in, but one that doesn’t indicate a deeper economic slowdown than just a soft patch.

Over the weekend is the big trade meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 summit. Wall Street’s expectations are low, Michael Bloom reports. So a cease- fire in which the U.S. agrees to hold off on additional tariffs and restart talks but keep current tariffs could be enough to get a relief rally.

And then once the G-20 is over, traders will turn their sights to next Friday’s jobs report. As Patti Domm notes, economists expect 158,000 jobs were created in June, up from a disappointing 75,000 in May. 

Ironically, traders may want a number weaker than that, giving the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut rates more aggressively (50 basis points?) at its meeting later next month.

Big picture: Diminishing inflation and slower growth have positioned the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates as soon as July to help prolong a record 10-year-old economic expansion and reassure investors, households and businesses.


R6, Maddog – Here’s your COT’s

Posted by Buygold @ 17:47 on June 28, 2019  

Just flat crazy – everyone pressing their bets


Maddog – Concur, IMHO a lot of folks are going to get scammed on Crap Coin. It’s a game of musical bag holders. Crazy swings. As longs as I have a few metal coins in my possession, I imagine someone will want to trade either fiat or goods for them.

Not sure I could say the same for Crap Coin.

The Right to VOTE

Posted by Ororeef @ 17:41 on June 28, 2019  

Democrats clearly show what happens when you give people the right to vote when THEY did nothing to earn it.  They try to sell it .They didnt earn it,so they sell it because it has no value to them. Every politician offers them some fantasy if they would sell their vote to him. They offer up  a lie and it gets bought .  You got what you deserve. ! WE have NEVER really ELECTED  a GOOD President .The Good ones were the Founders and those that were accidental Presidents.where somebody got shot or died in office.Some of the Good ones got SHOT in office,,thats gratitude for ya..  Lincoln,kennedy,Reagan ….Its almost impossible to ELECT a good man to office,they dont have the votes.People dont want good Government ,they just want THEIR TURN to pillage the public Treasury .  Democracy gives everyone a chance to be a crook ….

COTs–no surprise=Bearish!

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:38 on June 28, 2019  

The Commitment of Traders Report


*The large specs increased their long positions by 4,298 contracts and reduced their shorts by 11,751 contracts.

*The commercials reduced their longs by 10,193 contracts and increased their shorts by 8,872 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 1,182 contracts and decreased their shorts by 1,834 contracts.

The commercials are net short 53,552 contracts.


*The large specs increased their long positions by 23,475 contracts and reduced their shorts by 8,756 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 18,235 contracts and increased their shorts by 54,530 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 7,073 contracts and decreased their shorts by 3,009 contracts.

The commercials are net short 260,150 contracts.


Just saw the SM ramp job…no shame at all

Posted by Maddog @ 16:30 on June 28, 2019  

the last 45 mins of S&P trading, including the after hours, saw it up 18 full points !!!!!!!

The EU is mad, but we all know that….now they have proved it.

Posted by Maddog @ 16:25 on June 28, 2019  

Trump To Unleash Hell On Europe: EU Announces Channel To Circumvent SWIFT And Iran Sanctions Is Now Operational


Stand back folks, this will get nasty.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.