OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Rah Rah-Sis Boom Bah-!

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:49 on July 6, 2019  

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares NYSE) is the world’s largest gold-centric Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). On Friday June 21, 2019 

– a record single day’s inflow (gold buying) of over $1.5 billion took place.

This stampede, led by hedge funds and “algos” (automated computer buy/sell programs based upon volume ows and trigger price points) involved dollar amounts substantially eclipsing the record set during the 2008 global panic.

The price of gold rose to a 6-year high, left a series of gaps on the way up, and smashed through all sorts of technical “resistance” points on traders’ charts around the globe.

At the same time, silver – almost unnoticed because its rise was relatively muted – broke out on the strongest volume since 2011, printing its second highest Up Volume ever!

So what is going on? When a major market movement like we witnessed

in late June takes place, everybody looks for an answer. And everyone has an opinion.

But the only
opinion which really matters – that of the Market – usually takes a while to reveal itself.

Buygold-I. respect Mark Mead Baillie but he has locked himself into the old frame work of RSIs and historic correlations

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:38 on July 6, 2019  

[I want to give gold the chance to break all the old parameters]

“support no lower than 1377, yet with resistance so as not to move materially above 1434, let alone last week’s “overshoot” high of 1442.”

Not to damper our “endless winter” enthusiasm, but per the key point from a week ago: we’re not anticipating any imminent Gold milestones from here. Price settled out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1401 after having in the prior two weeks (as you well know, lest you live in a hole) surpassed Base Camp 1377 and our “conservative” forecast high for this year of 1434. For as summer’s sun churns winter’s snow to water, likewise do we sense the trading process to churn Gold’s superb upside progress to oscillation, ideally with

support no lower than 1377, yet with resistance so as not to move materially above 1434, let alone last week’s “overshoot” high of 1442.

Indeed, our recent missives have cited how rare ’tis been for Gold to be trading in the 1400s period. To further update that data, since Gold’s All-Time Closing High of 1900 on 22 August 2011, there’ve now passed 1,980 trading days, in which for only 37 of them price has settled in the 1400s : that’s just 1.9% of the time. One might thus opine that Gold having not essentially endured this area before, nobody really knows what to do.

Buygold–in. the Sprott article he makes the same assumptions that have kept so many. out

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:10 on July 6, 2019  

of this rally…and caused so many to. exit early…I can’t. be sure but I am operating on. the premise that the old rulebook must be set aside…if u. have your portfolio of PM shares already just sit tight and don’t trade. the squiggles…I think gold will go to 1700, 1900 or higher in 3 to 6 months…He writes=

Gold also is extreme overbought at levels not seen since the peak of July 2016, based on the daily RSI and MACD Line, and in the case of the weekly RSI, since the August 2011 peak. Large and small speculators are loading up long while the Bullion Banks are piling on the shorts with open interest only higher in July 2016. As for sentiment, it seems everyone is bullish Gold these days. The data is not on Gold’s side.

That’s old school folks…stocks aren’t contained. by these rules anymore…neither is Bitcoin…so. why just gold?

Sprott’s Guy Dave Brady agrees with Ballinger – at some point silver should start to perform right?

Posted by Buygold @ 17:35 on July 6, 2019  

If Gold is in a Bull Market, Buy Silver

When Gold falls, the GSR typically rises as Silver falls even further than Gold. Call it a high beta play on Gold. The same happens in reverse.

Looks to me like clear sailing for gold. Maybe a pullback to 1350 but otherwise good to go!

Posted by silverngold @ 13:33 on July 6, 2019  


Buygold–Ballinger. IS still concerned with COTS–for some reason he failed to mention them

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:43 on July 6, 2019  

While you’re out getting those bonds. see. if u can. get me some 10 yr Somali. t-notes and libyan. 5. yrs–if u’ll loan me the price of them today, I will gladly repay you on Tuesday…

Image result for wimpy i'll gladly repay you on tuesday

If this is a real rally, the shares should catch fire at some point, right?

Posted by Buygold @ 10:25 on July 6, 2019  

A couple that have always done pretty well for me are AXU and AAU. They are failing me at the moment but so are most of the shares.


Disclaimer: Whenever I think a gold rally might get real, it’s usually a bad sign…:(


Posted by Buygold @ 8:50 on July 6, 2019  

Thanks for sharing the Ballinger. I’m a little surprised he doesn’t seem concerned with the COT’s, I always thought that was something he monitored pretty closely. Gotta think he’s going to catch the silver move one of these times.

Rosenberg’s data was interesting yesterday too. That was an Obama era type employment report with the BLS fudging the numbers. Probably contrived to give the banksters an opportunity to crush some longs in gold and bonds. If he’s right though, it will be business as usual next week some time.

Gonna rush out and buy me some of those Lebanese bonds. 🙂

The great Ballinger is back with a new strategy-gets long gold and long SLV

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:13 on July 6, 2019  

That “greatest single danger” has not occurred (thus far at least) and gold now resides comfortably above the three-year band of resistance and that singular event has changed the landscape and my trading strategies moving forward. With apologies to John Maynard Keynes, when conditions change, I change and since conditions are now unequivocally bullish for all things golden, I am now looking to buy back the half positions in GDX and GDXJ sold a few pennies higher than where they reside today. As for the leveraged ETFs (NUGT and JNUG), I will stick to my guns and only initiate new positions when RSI approaches 30. As for gold and silver, all indications favor silver over the short-term horizon as it carries far less downside risk and far less vulnerability to massive profit-taking due to the fact that with the gold to silver ratio (GTSR) above 90 (eyes rolling while stomach turning), silver has been an absolute dog in any and all analysis. They used to refer to silver bulls as “gold bulls on steroids” but with the manner in which the silver bullion banks, the most notable being JP Morgan, have capped, sat upon, choked, muscled, and generally manipulated the price of silver, the silver bugs are now hiding in the dark sanctuary of silence. In fact, any time a silver “luminary” posts his or her bullish opinion, the comments range from vitriolic to laughable in their assault and ridicule.


The inevitability of the gold bull market=distorted markets (with aberrant signals) that will throw a frenetic tantrum if central banks don’t follow the markets’ directive

Posted by Richard640 @ 5:00 on July 6, 2019  

When markets go into speculative melt-up mode, the signaling process turns dysfunctional. Technology stock prices in March 2000; record high equities prices in July 1998 and October 2007; sinking bond yields in late 1993. Never before have so many securities (bonds and stocks) been held by passive index products; and never have algorithmic trading strategies played such an impactful role in the marketplace. Moreover, never have global securities and derivatives markets been so closely interconnected. And perhaps most consequential, never have central bank policies had such a profound impact on global bond prices, market perceptions and speculative trading dynamics.

Central bankers are now faced with the predicament of having nurtured distorted markets (with aberrant signals) that will throw a frenetic tantrum if central banks don’t follow the markets’ directive. There is bold discourse aplenty these days regarding the merits of an “insurance” rate cut. Chairman Powell himself has stated “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” – a comment markets have interpreted as guaranteeing a July cut. Pundits, including former central bankers, have been speaking as if there is essentially no risk to a cut they believe would offer protection against bad outcomes. This, however, completely disregards the risks associated with adding monetary stimulus to dislocated global securities markets already in dangerous detachment from fundamental realities.

With a rate cut cycle commencing imminently, the view is that the fixed income investment cycle is closer to the start of something than the end. Yet it sure has the look of the craziness that comes at the end of a long cycle. That central banks are prepared to further loosen monetary policy with global securities markets absolutely booming should be sounding the alarm bell. Central bankers will either hand over the keys to the asylum – or try to regain control. Either way, there is market uncertainty and volatility on the horizon.

It used to be that seasoned market players would fret late-cycle excess (appreciating associated fragilities). But that was before “whatever it takes” QE and $13 TN of negative-yielding global bonds. Why not buy 10-year Treasuries at 2.0% when bunds trade at negative 0.37%. Why not own U.S. investment-grade bonds at historically (highly) elevated prices that appear attractive relative to negative-yielding European corporates? Junk, even better. MBS, why not. Basically, virtually the entire fixed-income universe is expensive on a fundamental basis – yet cheap relative to negative-yielding foreign bonds. And how high can U.S. stocks trade if Treasury yields go negative?

Market speculation used to be grounded in “the greater fool theory”. Who needs a fool when markets have central bankers with the wizardry of their QE tool. Bonds have been around for centuries, but we’ve finally reached the point where there is no longer a ceiling to bond prices. This is a precarious juncture for global markets, and the Fed should think twice before it feeds this beast.  


By the end of the Friday session markets were back pricing a 100% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s July 31st meeting.

Posted by Richard640 @ 4:30 on July 6, 2019  


This week had somewhat of a capitulation look to it. After ending last week at 2.10%, Italian 10-year yields had sunk an incredible 55 bps at Thursday’s 1.55% low. Greek yields were down 42 bps for the week at Thursday’s 2.01% low. Elsewhere, Hungary’s 10-year yields were down 36 bps – India 31 bps, Turkey 70 bps,

Lebanon 61 bps

Mexico 27 bps and Brazil 24 bps – at Thursday’s lows. Turkey’s dollar bond yields were down 39 bps at Thursday’s 6.88% low. 

 In derivative “dynamic” trading strategies, virtual panic buying to hedge exposures during the market upside blow-off phase can abruptly reverse into aggressive selling as market prices turn lower. Market liquidity, seemingly so permanently abundant during the ascent, is prone to quickly becoming almost non-existent into the decline.

A Friday afternoon Bloomberg headline: “Fed Debate Shifts From Large Cut to Whether to Cut at All.” While it did dip slightly in early-Friday trading, by the end of the session markets were back pricing a 100% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s July 31st meeting. Fed funds futures imply a 1.81% Fed funds rate at the end of the year, up from Wednesday’s implied 1.63%.

Curiously, the market is still highly confident of a rate cut this month, this despite record stock prices, a trade “truce,” and a sharp snapback in job creation. Markets are clamoring for a rate cut and few believe the Powell Fed will risk a repeat episode of disappointing the markets.


Gold Train

Posted by Maya @ 1:53 on July 6, 2019  


A private reproduction of the
Lincoln funeral train.


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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.