OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

No wonder silver. has been so. strong

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:34 on July 20, 2019  

The Top Three Contrarian Trades From Bank of America

3. The contrarian policy trade: LONG SILVER, long US banks, short US$, short EU bonds & credit…
  • if Fed cuts 50bps + July payroll >300k…Fed dovish policy mistake which will provoke either disorderly rise in government bond yields (1994 analog) or melt-up in stocks; and…
  • if Fed cuts + July payroll -150k…signals onset of recession & policy impotence… sparks disorderly rise in corporate bond spreads & decline in US dollar.
 
A more grandular look reveals frothy inflows to virtually every asset class, including government bond, IG, HY, and EM debt funds, all coinciding with…
  • renewed global monetary ease (18 rate cuts past 6-mths & 720 cuts since Lehman);
  • record $12.9tn of bonds in developed markets with negative yield (25% of total);
  • record 26% of Euro IG corporate bonds with negative yield;
  • record 56% share of global equity market cap from tech-heavy US stock market;
  • extreme relative valuation of “growth” stocks versus “value” stocks, e.g. US growth & EAFE value have price-to-book ratios of 7.7x & 1.1x, and dividend yields of 0.9% & 4.8% respectively.

Got gold? The entire PM sector was on an R640 buy signal Friday-Cause G&S were flat to up a few pennies but all the PM stocks were down4-6-8 percent–I hope Sunday nite

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:04 on July 20, 2019  
gold opens down-just a few-4-6-9 bucks– and PM stocks open down another 2-4-6 percent Monday–that should do it…then a recovery and a solid upday and week.
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To date, the central banks have gotten away with their easy money policies because they could. The day of reckoning could always be pushed further out via a fresh round of liquidity. But, as Brien Lundin says in the video below, the reckoning is “no longer simply inevitable, it is imminent. We are reaching the End of the Road.”
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The Fed and its central banking brethren are now hostage to rock-bottom interest rates. They can’t raise them, less they asphyxiate the remaining shreds of GDP growth around the world. Especially now, when so much of the global economy is fast sliding into recession. Rate hikes at this point would simply crash the system.
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So we can expect more unnatural and desperate measures from here. Fed rate cuts while the stock market is at all-time highs and employment at all-time lows? Sure. Negative interest rates on high yield (i.e. junk) bonds? It’s already happening in Europe.
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But we shouldn’t expect these to work. The system has reached a point of debt exhaustion where each new $trillion stimulates much more weakly than the previous one, and causes the system to become exponentially more unstable.

British scientist who develops melanoma

Posted by overton @ 16:44 on July 20, 2019  

follows thru on the  latest target drug therapies and talks with recent US Nobel prize winner on immunotherapy for treatment of melonama cancers.  I thought he said the British NHS pays for cancer drugs.

 

R6, Maya

Posted by Buygold @ 16:43 on July 20, 2019  

R6 – 450 HUI easy? You’re speaking my language! 🙂 If the world gangs up on us we’ could lose a currency war, although I think the way they are attacking us now is to make the dollar stronger….that appears to be the way to hurt the US economy IMHO.

Maya – gotta watch that Ipso character, even though I’m taxing my brain cells, he’s always pushing to tax whatever is left…:)

 

Got gold? Buygold-as long as u don’t have options, just sit back and relax…harvest the clover–targets are 375 HUI and your 450 HUI–it’s a no brainer…

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:58 on July 20, 2019  

Be the Warren Buffett of gold=don’t sweat the zigs and the zags, Ziggy…”

Global Bubble Watch:

July 14 – Bloomberg (Enda Curran): “Central bankers readying to fight another economic downturn are tossing hand grenades rather than firing bazookas. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stand ready alongside many of their counterparts to cut interest rates to bolster the weakest growth in a decade and lackluster inflation. Yet they have little to work with and, perhaps more worryingly, what they do have lacks potency. Expansions and price growth are flagging despite the easy money already sloshing around and further stimulus may do little to offset the trade war. Structural obstacles such as rising debt burdens, digital disruption and aging populations also work against looser monetary policy. ‘There are limits on what further monetary easing can achieve,’ Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said… ‘You still get benefit from it, but there are limits.’

July 14 – Bloomberg (Enda Curran): “A full-blown currency war where major central banks and governments, including the U.S., deliberately weaken their currencies can no longer be ruled out, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s global economic adviser Joachim Fels wrote… The view is in line with a rising chorus of Wall Street analysts who warn that President Donald Trump’s repeated complaints about the foreign exchange practices of key trading partners heightens the risk of U.S. intervention to weaken the dollar. Fels describes current conditions as a ‘cold currency war, round three’ that is at risk of escalating.”

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2019/07/weekly-commentary-living-life-near-zlb.html

Buygold @ 8:52

Posted by Maya @ 13:30 on July 20, 2019  

A tax on brain cells, you say?  Fortunately I don’t have any of those left.  And Ipso is implementing a tax on his proprietary snoozing, so I gotta pay to take a nap.  So I’m forced to watch the PMs (or is it ‘PMS’)   Watching the tide turn, if ever so slooowly.

The smart money that sees something big coming is the first to move… quietly.  One watches carefully and you can see the stealthy moves.

one of the better podcasts I’ve listened to this year …Michael Oliver

Posted by overton @ 11:38 on July 20, 2019  

He’s been on Eric King a couple of times this year but Eric used him more to push his own KW pm stocks.  In this in depth interview Oliver says that if everyone is using price charts then you’ll get the same results and that’s the reason for his momentum model.  You can get samples of his earlier metals calls with an email.

 

Michael Oliver On Why Momentum Is Truth In Markets

Maddog, R6, Capt., Ipso et. all

Posted by Buygold @ 8:52 on July 20, 2019  

Maddog – thanks for the chart, I’m glad you know how to read that thing, it’s all Greek to me. Hard to see them getting us back to $15 but we’ve seen stranger things.

I’ve been looking at the similarities between this and the last rally R6 pointed out in 2016, which lasted 6-7 months before crashing in on itself. Actually, the beginning of this rally is pretty much the same in terms of speed, at least in gold.

If we get a similar move then it looks like we could get to $16-1700 Gold, 450 HUI – although the HUI is lagging the 2016 move in terms of price vs. Gold. If gold decides to keep up this pace over 6 months, it seems like we could go much higher. I don’t know.

What I don’t know, other than maybe a potential decline in rates, is what’s driving this rally. The dollar still appears to be trending higher and is higher than it was in 2016. So someone appears to be betting on a decline in the USD.

Lastly, GLD appears to have that gap right around $128-130 that could be filled which would take us back to Maddog’s $1380 level. If the rule of “all gaps in pm’s must be filled” comes into play.

OK, so now I have a headache from taxing my last two brain cells. Would love to hear your thoughts.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.