OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Lots of PIVOT Points right here ..

Posted by Ororeef @ 23:50 on August 18, 2019  

reversals even for S&P stocks ..even HongKONGs  HengSing has botomed …as tech stock VMW

also Hong Kong ETF  , EWH bottomed,China YUAN botomed,The Dollar & GOLD are moving together !  same direction…

Selling treasuries tonight…we’ll see if this lasts until tomorrow…A. few hours ago, Trump just tweeted China-nice-nice-so stocks opened higher

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:24 on August 18, 2019  


The 30 yr t-bond down 1 &. 10/32nds


US National Debt Spiked $363 billion in Two Weeks, $1 Trillion in 12 months. But Who Bought This Pile of Treasury Securities? GOT GOLD?

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:18 on August 18, 2019  

Nope, the Fed dumped. But there was huge demand elsewhere.

The US Gross National Debt has jumped by $363 billion in the two weeks since President Trump signed the law that suspended the debt ceiling. This surge pushed the total debt to $22.39 trillion. That’s up by $1.01 trillion from 12 months ago. And these are the good times. Watch this debt balloon during an economic downturn! Whoopee!  Note the technical term at the top right of the chart

The question, “Who the heck is buying all this debt” – because every dime has to be bought by some entity – is becoming increasingly nerve-wracking, particularly as the trade war with China puts the possibility out there that Chinese entities might dump their US Treasury securities, much like Russia has already done. But Russia was only a small-ish holder. China is – or rather was – the largest one.

So we got some answers on Thursday when the Treasury Department disclosed in its TIC data how much of this debt was held, bought, and dumped by foreign investors through June.

Foreign investors bought hand-over-fist. But not the Chinese!



Keep on stacking

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:58 on August 18, 2019  
Aug 18, 2019 at 8:09 am

The USD$ has already been strong this whole year, up around 20% against many currencies, and many more in developing/emerging economies. It’s a good time to stacks of $$$.

my rent in Denver went from $1400 to $3000

Posted by eeos @ 17:47 on August 18, 2019  

So now we own a house in this bubblicious market! What am I supposed to do? And R640 is spot on, relators are the greediest slimeball turds in the universe. I can’t wait till Zillow and Redfin smack the hell out of the carpetbagger snake oil salespeople that do nothing but unlock doors and pass off fake electronic documents that scum bag lawyers make up to extort huge amounts of money from people. See the taxi market in big cities? Cabbies are toast. Lyft and Uber slayed those turds too, the dot comers pound greed out of the market and they scoop up the $$$$$$$$ instead. Eff relators!

Benoit Mandelbrot chaos prof : Volatility days are defined as days with +/- 3% change.

Posted by Richard640 @ 17:43 on August 18, 2019  
Michael Engel 
Aug 18, 2019 at 7:08 am

1) Tiny tranquility candles above/ under a gap can hide volatility.
Full body candles cannot hide volatility.
2) Benoit Mandelbrot chaos prof : Volatility days are defined as days
with +/- 3% change.
They tend to cluster together. They appear in a downtrend and rallies.
They don’t predict trend.
They predict chaos and a major change.
3) Spx : after six month of tranquility, Aug 5th was a 3.8% day // Ndx was a 4.5% day.
4) US 10Y : Aug 1st & Aug 5th both were 5.9% days.
5) German : 10Y Aug 13 & 14 are very volatile days in vertical max.
6) Stay out of their way.

Hmmm….maybe rates aren’t gonna rise….

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:14 on August 18, 2019  
It has been a thesis over 20 years in the making, but with every passing day, SocGen’s Albert Edwards – who first coined the term “Ice Age” to describe the state of the world in which every debt issue ends up with a negative yield as capital markets and economies collapse into a deflationary singularity – is that much closer to having the victory lap of a lifetime. Although, we doubt he is happy about it.
Commenting on the interest rate collapse he has been (correctly) predicting ever since he first observed Japan’s great bubble bust of the 1980s and which resulted in both NIRP and QE, and which he (correctly) expected would spread across the rest of the world, leading to a “Japanification” of every major bond market…



Posted by goldielocks @ 11:58 on August 18, 2019  

This time as far as mortgage it’s not just blame it on Fed or market. It’s the greed in realtor market. They got wind Trumps in office, the economy is improving so like vultures there they go raising prices. At the same time you got criminals buying up apartments taking them over and raising the rents. In California it’s outrageous. One woman told me one two bedroom apt she moved out from cost too much at 1500 a month is now 2300 a month.She made good money but wasn’t stupid. Across the board they’ve raised the rents hundreds of dollars and no real difference in the place or square footage just greed. All revolving on breaks to the working class with tax breaks and jobs that was meant for them not these greedy brain dead sobs that want to swoop up and take it plus more. They are trying to make it a rental monopoly. Same for housing.
If it collapses it’s their own doing and can’t see too many feeling sorry for them. I bet they’re for open borders too.

Economist-Dave Rosenberg=We just saw first hand the ‘pushing on a string’ theme coming to fruition.

Posted by Richard640 @ 11:41 on August 18, 2019  

I love these ‘non-calls’ like Ray Dalio’s 40% odds for a recession. We get one, he called it. We don’t, he called it. Akin to ‘sort of being pregnant’ if you catch my drift.

We just saw first-hand the ‘pushing on a string’  theme coming to fruition. Mortgage rates down nearly 100 bps since the beginning of the year and yet single-family housing starts have plunged at an 18% annual rate.
Hey, if you don’t like the yield curve as a recession gauge, how about the -5.9% YoY trend in the Cass Freight Index, the -9.7% plunge in Port of Long Beach cargo traffic and the 3.9% slide in US railway carloadings?
Major reason for meltdown in bond yields? We’re back in a deep global savings glut. When investment falls short of savings, rates fall. It’s that simple. And the rising level of uncertainty, on trade and other matters too, has caused capex worldwide to retreat.

Treefrog–Funny! Love it-!

Posted by Richard640 @ 11:28 on August 18, 2019  


Posted by treefrog @ 11:11 on August 18, 2019  

Image may contain: 1 person, text

The last. chart didn’t. fit into the format-if anyone gives a darn, he or she csn view it here

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:10 on August 18, 2019  


Posters on the Great Don Wolanchuk site make the case for stocks bottoming–[I’m. not a tech guy so don’t ask me what. the charts how the. charts work]–maybe the Captain would give us his opinion on them.

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:04 on August 18, 2019  


advance 2681 
decline 568
fear and greed 20

Bob, here’s your Fav CLX Chart. Both CLX AND CLXPP 30 DMA’S bottomed and turned up. Breeze

Friday’s CLX chart with 10 and 30 DMAs. 10 DMA bottomed and on the rise. Breeze

Cheif, here’s the SPX with the Laundry settings. Breeze

I’m looking for a wild rest of the year, aren’t you? Good for nimble. traders–wide swings=”Near-panic has become nearly routine in the U.S. stock market, belying August’s reputation for calm.”

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:50 on August 18, 2019  

August 13 – Bloomberg (Lu Wang and Elena Popina): “A sleepy August morning got frantic in a hurry Tuesday when conciliatory statements on U.S.-China trade ignited an explosion in equity futures trading. Almost 130,000 September contracts on the equity gauge changed hands over five minutes starting at 9:45 a.m. in New York, five times the average for similar periods over the past month… News the Trump administration will delay the 10% tariff on some Chinese products sent prices on the contract up 2% in about half an hour. ‘We go from sipping from the water fountain to drinking from the fire hose,’ said Larry Weiss, head of equity trading at Instinet LLC… ‘The headlines certainly exacerbate intraday volatility, as summertime volumes present us with a decline in institutional and retail liquidity.’ Near-panic has become nearly routine in the U.S. stock market, belying August’s reputation for calm.”

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.