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Capitalist Exploitsl

Posted by Richard640 @ 23:06 on September 7, 2019  

Recency Bias: How Investors Are Going To Get Screwed – Again!

While indulging in a most delicious barbecued steak washed down by a lovely South African red a couple weeks ago a friend was telling me about a recent seminar he attended. As a senior executive at a Swiss private bank he regularly attends these things.

The topic. “How to invest in a volatile market.”

The suggestion: Buy USD, CHF and JPY.

The kid (he was in his 20’s) who was delivering this presentation to a room full of bankers proved his point by showing his analysis…going all the way back a whopping 10 years which lends itself particularly well to recency bias.

The reasons that these three currencies have rallied in the past are for a number of different reasons. All different from each other. It’s best therefore to understand what those reasons are. Simply looking in the rearview mirror and saying..oh “well it happened last time” may work out…but then again…maybe not.

How It’s Dangerous to Investors

Now let me show how dangerous recency bias really is. You’re gonna like this.

At the beginning of every decade there is a prevailing narrative that amounts to looking in the rearview mirror in order to determine the future. Recency bias.

Remember the beginning of the 90’s?

Every man, the taxi driver and even that cute intern with the lazy eye was long Japan. You HAD to be in the Japanese “economic miracle”. It was like duh of course!

Recency Bias: How Investors Are Going To Get Screwed – Again!

Headed back home tomorrow

Posted by Ororeef @ 22:12 on September 7, 2019  

keep that huckster The Co@n GUY at bay until I get there  …All he does is put doubts in peoples minds ,thats the worst kind of poster .I can respect someone with a different opinion,but a CON guy that just tries to put doubts in honest posters minds while he dosent post his own reasons to support his case dosent deserve a hoot…see you all soon…..

Hysterical. Henry Illinois-village by the river-20 miles from my home town, Peoria, Il.–a para-dice!! $179,900–live. for $660. a month

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:48 on September 7, 2019  
  • 5 beds
  • 2 baths
  • 3,608 sq ft
  • 0.44 acres lot, Peoria,  Il.
$179,900

Est. Payment $660/mo

813 Main St, Henry, IL 61537

813 Main St, Henry, IL 61537

813 Main St, Henry, IL 61537

813 Main St, Henry, IL 61537

813 Main St, Henry, IL 61537

Tariffs…Shmariffs..deal…there. are still plenty of. reasons to own gold-that’s. why this pullback. will be a gift from god buying opp

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:37 on September 7, 2019  

Saturday, September 7, 2019-Credit. Bubble BulletinWeekly

Commentary: $150 Billion Global Corporate Bond Binge

It’s difficult to envisage a more manic bond market environment – at home or abroad. In Europe, it’s tulip mania reincarnated, with a third of European investment-grade bonds now trading with negative yields. Draghi had best not disappoint the markets next Thursday.
*********************************************
“JPMorgan’s analysts say September is shaping up to be the ‘first issuance window where negative yielding bonds are a common feature, rather than an occasional oddity’.
*************************************************
FANNIE AND FREDDIE==It’s worth noting GSE Securities surged $626 billion since the end of 2016 – in what is reckless late-cycle growth for institutions with zero capital buffers. But as a wing of the Department of Treasury (and a probable target of the Fed’s next QE program), GSE debt and MBS have enjoyed insatiable demand. In one of history’s great Bond Binges, combined outstanding Treasury and GSE securities have increased $3.0 Trillion over just the past ten quarters.
****************************************************
“As central bankers weigh up cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory, investors should consider when the risks of this trend will begin to outweigh its benefits. With almost $17tn of negative-yielding debt already out there, I fear we have already hit the reversal rate — the point at which accommodative monetary policy ‘reverses’ its intended effect and becomes contractionary for the economy. Conventional macroeconomic models typically take banks and other intermediaries for granted. As a result, the overall benefits of cutting rates below zero may have been exaggerated.”

Ricks Picks

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:13 on September 7, 2019  
The Morning Line 

Is Dow ‘Magnetic Effect’ About to Kick In?

   

DaBoyz have gotten quite a bit of mileage out of a planned meeting in October between trade representatives from the U.S. and China. There are times 

when the same news would have laid an egg, but this manifestly is not one of them. Cyclical forces are at work, fueling a short squeeze whose bullish 

impact on stock prices seems exaggerated relative to whatever economic effect a face-saving trade agreement itself is likely to generate. We might have 

scoffed a month ago at the notion that a bear squeeze could push the broad averages to new all-time highs with the economies of Europe and China 

sagging so badly. But the Dow Industrial Average is now within 2.5% of a new record — close enough that it will be magnetically drawn toward the old 

peaks if it finishes the week with a further gain of perhaps 250 points.

fauxahontas

Posted by goldielocks @ 17:15 on September 7, 2019  

Won’t be happy till the news shows economy shutimg down, food prices going sky high and people are freezing to death in the winter.

Treefrog

Posted by Maya @ 15:29 on September 7, 2019  

Agreed….  I’m about 3% Chippewa.  Much more than the fakir.

maya,

Posted by treefrog @ 15:20 on September 7, 2019  

out of respect for the original indian princess, lets make that:

 

Fauxcahontas Warren.

Admins

Posted by Maya @ 15:14 on September 7, 2019  

Upon trying to log in, after doing the addition for the ‘captcha’ , I received notice that I was locked out due to too many invalid login attempts.  (There were NONE!). Happened twice.

So I attempted login again and filled out the ‘captcha’ login request with an email and message, as well as the math problem.  This time it let me in.  Something screwy with the security login.

Pocahontas Warren

Posted by Maya @ 15:08 on September 7, 2019  

…wants us all to live in TeePees on the great plains and burn buffalo chips…. if we can find any.   The ultimate “Green New Deal”.

Maddog

Posted by ipso facto @ 13:14 on September 7, 2019  

I’d just like to know where all these fawning political wokesters came from? Our populace has been brainwashed elementary to college!

Butgold

Posted by goldielocks @ 12:46 on September 7, 2019  

Well your doing a good job surviving but don’t forget about your health.
We have foreign moves in places that understand gold more than many Americans today.
I’m still watching retrace in gold and only time will tell. Take a thousand out of the present and we’re following a similar pattern. After some years of 1980 high it dropped had some bounces then had a rise to 500 then continued down back up them down. Take the 1000 out of the 1980s you have the 500 now. We don’t have the same conditions or Fed we had in the 1980s. They’re attacking oil though even though they use it. Anything to tax.
We have people moving into the dollar as one of the few places to go in current events and why it could be a hedge. Not a good time maybe now. Meanwhile as they move into it as well as digital currency the bankers want to eliminate cash. Then they can turn to outrageous fees and no way out of bank failures. I hope the young are smart enough to not let that happen.
Right now with negative yield curve if there is a recession it’s gonna be banks again as they tighten their balance sheets.
So much for digital currency,

ipso facto

Posted by Maddog @ 12:42 on September 7, 2019  

Re God help us…..he’ll be too busy laughing!!!!!!

Yr on yr own…..ours are just as bad , or worse….we have full Cabinet Ministers….that’s 1 down from PM, sitting at Greta Thunbergs feet in adulation !!!!!!

God help us

Posted by ipso facto @ 10:13 on September 7, 2019  

“On my first day as president, I will sign an executive order that puts a total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands. And I will ban fracking—everywhere.” Elizabeth Warren via Twitter

Grain of Salt – He used to be an advocate for gold until he became Fed chief – back to his old roots?

Posted by Buygold @ 9:11 on September 7, 2019  

Greenspan: Rising Gold Price Shows Investors Want Hard Assets That Will Increase In Value

“One of the reasons that the gold price is rising as fast as it is… that’s telling us essentially that people are after hard resources which they know are going to have a value 20 years from now, or 30 years from now as they age…”

Well thanks Goldie

Posted by Buygold @ 8:04 on September 7, 2019  

I’m humbled by those remarks but the truth is I’m just trying to survive this life like everyone else. Realizing that the older I get, the less I know about anything.

I don’t pretend to know where gold is going either. After all the turmoil of the last two days, gold is still above $1500 and silver $18. Well above where it started the year. I have to believe it went above $1500 for a reason and I’m not sure what’s changed.

So much for the constitution in California. Now they’re taxing babies.

Posted by goldielocks @ 1:16 on September 7, 2019  

Sacramento, CA — Governor Gavin Newsom declared his support of a controversial new tax aimed at California’s growing anti-vaccination movement. The legislation, proposed by Democrat State Assemblyman Richard Pan and two others, seeks to levy a tax on parents who refuse to vaccinate their children.
“You need to let go of your fear and anxiety of being judged by others,” said Governor Newsom on the step of the Sacramento Capitol building, “If you’re trying to understand why it is that certain things happen in Sacramento and certain things don’t, at the end of the day, it comes down to the issue of incentives: We do what we’re incentivized to do. And we want everyone in California vaccinated, so this bill is the incentive.”
“The Healthy Families Vaccination Act” left the Assembly Heath and Human Services Committee late last week, and passed the State Senate with only a handful of Republicans objecting. Governor Newsom says he will sign it immediately.
The Details
The bill calls for a tiered income tax for families who choose not to vaccinate their children. A family of four making under $25,000 or less, will pay no income taxes. Families making up to $60,000 will pay an additional 4.5% tax on their adjusted rates and those making over $120,000 per year are expected to cough up an additional 8%.
All anti-vaxx families will be required to attend an 8 hour online training session about the dangers of not vaccinating their children. Undocumented workers and their families will be exempt from the tax.
However, outspoken anti-vaccination advocate Robert Kennedy Jr. voiced opposition to the bill in a video targeted at Assemblyman Pan.
“Richard Pan is a Democrat but he takes money from Monsanto and the other big polluters in California,” Kennedy said in the ad. “This bill is nothing more than a Big Pharma play to poison our children and give them autism, so they can turn around and treat these conditions with more Big Pharma drugs.”
The bill is expected to raise as much as $8 billion dollars in revenue per year, which will be used to provide low-cost vaccinations to California’s children.

Gavin Newsom Supports New Anti-Vaxxer Tax

Maya

Posted by goldielocks @ 1:05 on September 7, 2019  

I think long timers here are smart enough to know what to do with their stocks without coin guys Tokyo Rose imitation, especially when he can’t produce the charts or interpret them. I guess he doesn’t like gold bugs. I wonder if he does that on fully’s site? I kinda think he’s funny because he’s a know it all trying to make himself look like he’s the only one here that knows anything. That is if he knows anything.

Buygold

Posted by goldielocks @ 0:48 on September 7, 2019  

I’m impressed with your humbleness concerning coin guy when you are such a smart person and hard worker. Your ability to wear so many different hats shows you could survive if you had to any circumstance. My brother who died was like that. He knew when to hold them when to fold them. Your wife must get exhausted just looking at you.
I’m not taking sides with what direction gold is going right now other than guarded. I am interest with coin guys example or chart showing the fifth wave fail 3-5? That takes into account no market or Gov intervention.

Gold Train

Posted by Maya @ 0:11 on September 7, 2019  

rrflasher-copy

The beautiful Kansas City Southern
executive train.
https://railpictures.net/photo/707901/

 

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.