OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

To short. or not to. short, that is. the question.

Posted by Richard640 @ 18:19 on September 29, 2019  
The Morning Line for Monday
Published Sunday, September 29, 5:00 p.m. ET
 

A Permabear’s Dilemma
As Market Top Draws Near

Readers rightfully took me to task last week for putting out two headlines that appeared to at least mildly contradict one other and which taken together could only have left one wanting more clarity. The first said Don’t Load Up on Puts Quite Yet;  the second, There’s Still Time to Load Up on Puts.  So which is it? Do we get short here, or not? Well, the answer, like the market itself, is more art than science and for me reduces to this: The bull’s ten-year rampage has at least a little farther to go, but it can’t hurt to nibble on put options now, just in case. Thus was your editor a buyer of DIA October 4 265 put options on Friday after pondering the chart above. It is one that I’d shared with you earlier but which I put aside in favor of an AAPL chart that looked more bullish.  It still does, and it leaves me quite confident that shares of Apple, a key bellwether for the bull market, are very likely to rise from a current 219 to at least 242 before the fat lady sings. That would equate to a rally of about 10 percent, which, if it occurs, would imply that the broad averages will remain buoyant at least until then.


Formidable Wall of Worry


Like many of you, I’m convinced stocks are a bad risk at these levels. Indeed, it is not difficult to reel off a list of good reasons why a bear market should already have begun. September is historically the market’s worst month, and this year there were plenty of things to worry about when it commenced. For one, Europe is well into a recession that threatens to be bottomless. At the same time, China’s growth has contracted sharply. The trade war has dramatically slowed the global economy and smothered capital investment everywhere. U.S. manufacturing output has begun to drop, accompanied recently by a steep plunge in consumer confidence.  Of even greater concern is that consumer spending itself, the main engine of U.S. prosperity, has started to weaken. Unsold automobiles from 2019 are piling up on the lots and the crucial housing sector is in an apparent dead-cat bounce, spurred by desperate Fed maneuvering. The central bank is struggling increasingly to hold a potentially catastrophic deflation at bay, unable to prop up even crude oil’s price. Sobriety has returned to the IPO market with a vengeance, forcing WeWork’s greedy handlers to abort a deal tied to a $50 billion valuation when it got marked down to $15-billion-or-less. Perhaps most significantly of all, the corporate money freed up by Trump’s tax cuts has been spent after having pumped almost two trillion dollars into share buybacks over the last two years.

Party Is Over


On the evidence, only an idiot could doubt the party is over. And yet, U.S. stocks have been frolicking in record territory since early July, detached not only from such concerns, but from reality. In the meantime, trying to predict exactly when a decade of easy-money madness will end is a fool’s errand. Despite this, for most professional forecasters the challenge is too tempting to pass up. Gurus have technical tools that supposedly can help us put this nearly impossible feat within reach. In truth, we are no better at it than you and possess no special knowledge that would give us an edge. Like you, and considering the recessionary drift of the global economy, we regard the stock market at these levels as nothing short of terrifying. A few hundred dollars invested in put options from time to time is not likely to produce big profits, if any, but it can help one sleep a little easier.

Kellyanne Conway sure has thick skin to put up with this group of assholes and manage to keep a smile on her face!

Posted by silverngold @ 17:40 on September 29, 2019  

Angry Bird

Posted by Maya @ 17:15 on September 29, 2019  

index

angrybird

 

Is This The Real Driver Of Gold’s Recent Weakness?

Posted by ipso facto @ 15:07 on September 29, 2019  

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/real-driver-golds-recent-weakness

Pharma says they’re in it for stock profit not helping the sick.

Posted by goldielocks @ 13:08 on September 29, 2019  

Big Pharma CEO: ‘We’re in Business of Shareholder Profit, Not Helping The Sick’

Mr Copper 12:30 Sept 27

Posted by goldielocks @ 7:22 on September 29, 2019  

Good post. Something to educate the people especially young who never knew a good economy.Post war didn’t end for us. Now pulling a blanket over their eyes with lying to them the reason jobs are going is environmental. Without the concept of what it means to them because the young never saw them. Now they see fast food chains. Since a war we didn’t even want Europe couldn’t contain their own rogue enemies were now expected to fight the majority of any future conflicts to infinity. While we bury our soldiers who have no jobs to go back to they send their kids to college. They still have their car manufacturing too.

Posted by Maya @ 0:44 on September 29, 2019  

mrz092719-color-1mb_orig

Elon

Posted by eeos @ 0:32 on September 29, 2019  

elons-rocket

This is wild stuff, check out the video below. Try the full-screen button on the lower right hand of the video player.

Got oil? Got gold?

Posted by Richard640 @ 22:56 on September 28, 2019  
Al-Emad explicitly told me that Houthi attacks are not over, and further drone swarms are inevitable.
Now compare it with analysis by one trader:
If in the next wave of drone attacks 18 million barrels a day of Saudi crude are knocked out, it would represent a catastrophe of epic proportions. The US does not want the Houthi to believe that they have such power through such fourth generational warfare as drones that cannot be defended against. But they do. Here is where a tiny country can bring down not only a Goliath such as the US, but also the whole world.”
Asked about the consequences of a possible US attack against Iran – picking up on Robert Gates’ famous 2010 remark that “Saudis want to fight Iran to the last American” – the consensus among traders is that it would be another disaster.
“It would not be possible to bring Iranian crude on line for the world to replace the rest of what was destroyed,” said one.
He noted that Senator Lindsey Graham had said he “wanted to destroy the Iranian refineries but not the oil wells”. This is a very important point.  The horror of horrors would be an oil war where everyone is destroying each others’ wells until there was nothing left.”
While the “horror of horrors” hangs by a thread, the blind leading the blind stick to the script: Blame Iran and ignore Yemen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-how-yemens-houthis-are-bringing-down-goliath

Here Ye perma Bears the first week in OCT defies Logic ,at least the incomplete form ,2019 is not a normal year ,in the Ten year Cycle its very bullish! The First Week.that is …

Posted by Ororeef @ 20:05 on September 28, 2019  

Dow Jones Industrial Average Seasonal Chart - Years Ending in

R6 – Re: Morris Hubbart

Posted by Buygold @ 15:20 on September 28, 2019  

Certainly the table appears to be set for the pm bears when it comes to gold, silver and the shares.

COT’s are unbelievably bearish when it comes to gold and silver. The fact that the HUI didn’t even eclipse the highs from 2016 is pretty concerning. Almost reminds me of 2011 when gold made new highs, but the HUI did not.

Pretty concerning.

Not sure if I hope all those folks hoping for war with Iran and the end of days get what the are hoping for, but it’s definitely out of our control. They all gotta do what they gotta do. I’d like to see my kids live to see a better world, but I have my doubts.

Ha Ha!! LOL!!!!! Lotsa fun on. ZH today-The Israel. haters. are. swarming. all over. an article about Israel bombing Iran forces in Iraq-I finally found one pro-Israel post

Posted by Richard640 @ 14:21 on September 28, 2019  
You and all those paid shills who voted you up are really idiotic if you think that Jews, less than 2/10,000th of the world’s population, are your masters, and are all the world’s problems. What have you been smoking? You are mimicking Hitler and the Nazis and I am sure the Ayatollah that pays you 25 bob per post is very happy as he whips and tortures children who danced and girls who didn’t wear their hijab.

But I am sure you love Jewish technology. On the verge of cures for cancer and AIDS. That’s the Jews. Inventors or high tech non-invasive medical equipment. That’s the Jews. Inventor of many of the software and hardware that goes in your phones and computers and devices. Yup, that’s those horrible Jews. On the cutting edge of agriculture technology. Yup, that’s those horrid Jews again. Inventors of technology that increases efficiency of electrical transmission by more than 30% and which nearly every country in the world uses. Yup, it’s those Jews again causing trouble. Oh yes, and all those safer drugs that have been invented by Israelis to cure all sorts of diseases. Those Zionists are up to their evil.

And don’t forget how the Israelis were the first to set up a field hospital in Haiti and the last to leave after the earthquake. Same in Nepal. Those nasty Jews…

But those wonderful Arabs and radical Muslims have been lovingly spreading terrorism, peacefully raping women, delicately using children and civilians as human shields, gently enslaving Africans and Asians, democratically insisting that their women wear hijabs or else they will considerately stone them to death; and in an entrepreneurial spirit, selling children and women as sex slaves. Now that is a list of benefits to humanity that the Arabs and radical Muslims can be proud of.


Got to just love your lies, don’t you? And to think that less than 2/10,000th of 1 percent of the population are your masters shows how weak your thinking is. And how weak you are. Now you can crawl back to the sewer you were born in.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-believed-behind-overnight-attack-irans-land-bridge-iraq-syria

America and the Middle East

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:53 on September 28, 2019  
Three things you need to know:
1. Vlad’s hardware is junk. I know many now retired colonels, etc, that spent their careers in the ME beginning with the First Gulf War and have repeatedly over run Russian hardware. it is all junk and incapable of defending against US hardware. Down vote all you want to–this is a fact. And the US goes where ever it wants whenever it wants to.
2. The F-35 has flown all over Iran, Syria and Iraq and it is invisible–just like the B2 bomber and F-22 Raptor. They own the skies and the hardware coming down the pike will make it so for the next 100 years.
3. Iran is scared shitless and all of its chest feather pumping is nothing more than an attempt to keep its population in line because the average Iranian has had more than enough of the Ayatollah bull shit.

Pento intervie=when we have the next recession=we are going to go from $1 trillion to 3 trillion. $3 trillion of deficits every year

Posted by Richard640 @ 13:13 on September 28, 2019  

Well, let’s just go over a couple of things you said there. So, candidate Trump said he was going to pay off the national debt. And let me caveat this by saying that I voted for President Trump. I think he’s infinitely better than what we have to face possibly in November of next year. But candidate Trump said he was going to pay off the national debt, which was under $20 trillion is like $18, $19 trillion at that time. It’s now $22.5 trillion.

So, not only did we not pay off the debt, we’ve added to it, and we’re adding to it now at the pace, as you correctly point out, of over $1 trillion per annum. And this is when the unemployment rate, Mike, is at multi-decade lows. And when we have the next recession, when the automatic stabilizers kick in, welfare, food stamps, unemployment insurance, =. And that’s assuming that the interest on the debt stays quiescent. So that’s a pretty big assumption, by the way, so we could be adding close to 15% of GDP, 15% of GDP per annum to our national debt. That’s how scary things could be.

And who’s going to buy all this debt? And at what interest rate? We were talking about repo market before, banks are loaded with Treasuries. By the way, these treasuries have a zero risk rating in the capital ratios. That’s how they’re calculated. What happens when these Treasuries really tank in price, what happens to the bank solvency? So, that’s a big question for us.

You and I talk about things all the time about how awkward and how tenuous and fragile the global economy has become. But so far, it hasn’t really become acutely manifest other than we had that little slight hiccup. We had one in 2016, we had one at the end of 2018, but central banks are doing something. Global central banks have printed $22 trillion worth of counterfeit money in the past decade to re-inflate asset prices and try to make the massive $250 trillion global debt pile serviceable. That’s a tremendous amount of printing to paper over what’s really going on in the world.

Let me repeat that. $22 trillion worth of new money, of fiat paper, has been created in the past decade. Think about that.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/michael-pento-scary-warning-signs-cash-funding-markets

Posted by goldielocks @ 13:01 on September 28, 2019  

They’re blocking this on FB. Clobes Pushes pharmas on damage control. Someone managed to get it posted from another site.
It kept saying it goes against their community standards. So much for their community standards. Paid for by pharma?

Catie Clobes’ Story Drives Big Pharma’s Hit-Squad Into Damage Control

@Richie

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 11:37 on September 28, 2019  

Your posted Gold charts, look almost the same as US Dollar charts below.

http://schrts.co/CeFAMXcD

http://schrts.co/IZkjRdZH

 

 

Have some poison with your Joe? That damn glyphosate is everywhere these days.

Posted by ipso facto @ 11:26 on September 28, 2019  

Nestle Steps Up Testing After Finding High Levels Of Dangerous Weedkiller In Coffee Beans

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nestle-steps-testing-after-finding-high-levels-dangerous-weedkiller-coffee-beans

Iran

Posted by Richard640 @ 10:04 on September 28, 2019  

The attacks in May and June on Gulf installations and shipping were the first shot across the bow. The downing of a U.S. drone was another step up the ladder of escalation. These larger attacks are the third step. So far the attacks have drawn no significant retaliation against Iran and also no breakthrough on their goal of lifting at least some sanctions.

President Donald Trump is in a very difficult position, largely of his own making. He signaled a great reluctance to retaliate or escalate after the drone downing, and later fired his hawkish national security advisor, John Bolton. These are likely seen in Iran as signs of weakness, which in a sense they are, and encourage further escalation.

Trump and Iran have each other over barrels. Trump’s sanctions are badly hurting Iran, and their escalation is putting enormous political pressure on him.

If he does nothing, the Iranians will keep raising the temperature and oil prices will steadily edge upward, impacting his reelection campaign. If he retaliates militarily, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will take the blow and then have license to stage a larger counterstrike in the Gulf, driving oil prices more steeply upward. If Trump concedes and extends waivers or suspends a few sanctions, he might defuse the crisis, but he will look very weak politically.

What he is trying to go for is a quick photo-op negotiation in which Iran gives some minor concessions on sunset clauses and perhaps the range of its ballistic missiles, and he can relievedly announce the lifting of at least some sanctions, and trumpet the “Trump Deal” over the terrible Obama one. So far, the Iranians are playing hard ball and not offering him that off ramp. Indeed, Iranian hardliners might not even want to offer Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif that off ramp.

But there is a deal that can and should be made, at least to ward off a ruinous escalation between now and the U.S. elections in November 2020. The Iran issue will be on the desk of the next president, whether it’s Trump 2.0 or a Democrat.

https://www.mei.edu/publications/monday-briefing-attack-saudi-oil-facilities-has-impact-far-beyond-kingdom

Gold Stocks: An Evening Star Kills The Rally

Posted by Richard640 @ 7:33 on September 28, 2019  
September 27, 2019

Here are today’s videos and charts.  The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers.  Double-click to enlarge the charts.

SFS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis

SF60 Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-stocks-evening-star-kills-rally

Silver Train

Posted by Maya @ 3:47 on September 28, 2019  

rrflasher-copy

The Coast Starlight, coming ‘round the mountain
on Cuesta grade, into San Luis Obispo
https://railpictures.net/photo/708522/

 

Samb

Posted by redneckokie1 @ 22:44 on September 27, 2019  

Close below $1485 on December Comex gold confirms correction.

rno

Oh Well

Posted by commish @ 19:06 on September 27, 2019  

Gold     1495.90

Silver   17.50

Message to the banksters.

index

Samb @ 17:41

Posted by ipso facto @ 18:48 on September 27, 2019  

Thanks for the reply. Sounds reasonable.

For me I guess I’ll just stand pat full long. You never know when some economic land mine will change all.

Plus it seems to me the metals did great in this last run up when the SM was falling. The PM shares were winners too at this time.

Cheers

Ipso @ 14:44

Posted by Samb @ 17:41 on September 27, 2019  

Yes, The shortest Int. Cycle that I can recall over so many years came in after only 7 weeks but, that was a one time outlier. Two months would bring us to early Nov…that would still be quite short in time for this downtrend to end. I don’t try to say  how long in time or deep in price because then I would then only be guessing.

We have many options on how to play these corrective downtrends. You can simply stay with Buy and Hold because in a major Gold Bull you will eventually be rescued even if you had  bought at the very top of the last cycle.

Far better would be to sell some and rebuy at the next Int. low providing you have some decent trend reversal signals. What I did was to buy DUST. Some prefer PUT options but, I prefer the 3x ETF’s as I am then not so concerned with time erosion. We might get off easy this cycle in terms of both time and price…Who knows?  I just won’t assume the best happens.

I would NEVER listen to the Con Guy

Posted by eeos @ 17:41 on September 27, 2019  

Shill

« Newer PostsOlder Posts »
Go to Top

Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.