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The Iran-Saudi conflict has entered a new phase, with the real threat of a full-scale conflict.

Posted by Richard640 @ 23:06 on October 6, 2019  
And even if the damage done to Abqaiq is technically restored, and Saudi oil is flowing at the same rates as before, the world has changed. We now know that with a small amount of low intensity advanced weapon systems, the heart of the global oil sector can be significantly disrupted. Saudi Arabia’s pivotal position as the main stabilizer of the oil markets has been at best dented or, at worst, destroyed. No repair shop will be able to bring back the unquestioned confidence in Saudi Arabia as the eternal swing producer upon which the security of energy supply can depend. With less than 30 drones and cruise missiles, Saudi’s spare production capacity was removed from the market. And, contrary to what many analysts believe, it is yet to come back online
The Iran-Saudi conflict has entered a new phase, with the real threat of a full-scale conflict. The situations in Iraq and Libya will also suffer from the instability created by this stand of. And despite this instability, Saudi Arabia’s important ally, the United States, has refused to be fully drawn into the conflict. The link between Trump and MBS appears to be weakening as the geopolitical pressure cranks up. Washington appears will to bark but not to bite when it comes to Iran’s actions against Saudi Arabia. U.S. analysts and policy makers don’t seem to understand that this stance not only weakens US influence in the region, but directly opens the doors for opposition to MBS inside of the Kingdom.

Rick. Ackerman

Posted by Richard640 @ 22:20 on October 6, 2019  
The Morning Line for Monday
Published Sunday, October 6, 6:30 p.m. ET

The Whoopee Cushion
Rules on Wall Street

The Dow Industrials ended the week with an 800-point Whoopee Cushion bounce that recouped two-thirds of a 1300-point loss suffered days earlier. The swoon, exhilarating as it may have seemed to traders, will do little to brighten an economic picture that has gone from boom to gloom since mid-summer. One might think that the dark cloud of recession over China and Europe would have caused investors to lower their expectations for the U.S. economy. However, evidence that they care even a little about a global slowdown was nowhere to be found on Friday. Shares were up across-the-board, with the S&Ps tacking on a 40-point gain and the FAANG stocks in the rapacious grip of trade-desk madmen. Short-covering provided nearly all of the buying power, as it nearly always does, warning bears still on the sidelines to stay put for the time being.

We had confidently expected the bounce to come from lower levels — specifically, from a 25,363 ‘Hidden Pivot’ target in the Dow that had looked certain to be achieved. Alas, the forecast seemed to miss by a not-so-trivial 380 points when the Indoos trampolined off 25,743.  The jury is still out, however, since 25,363 will remain a valid price objective unless the rally exceeds 27,303. But it is usually a bullish sign when downtrending ABCD correction patterns fall short of their ‘D’ targets, as may have occurred here. Moreover, there is no reason to think that a deepening global downturn, impeachment mayhem and signs of a top in the U.S. economy will impair buyers’ bad judgment. For at the end of the day, the rally is not being driven by bullishness, but by urgent short-covering, a world awash in credit money, entrenched institutional mindset and a lack of high-beta alternatives.

Love That Bad News!

Although short-covering was the technical reason behind last week’s oversold bounce, the news media served up an explanation of its own that we can laugh at as we might the emergence of twenty clowns from an Isetta. So what was on investors’ tiny, febrile brains that might have justified their week-ending exuberance? Why, the prospect of more Fed easing, of course! Manufacturing, capital investment and consumer confidence falling off a cliff? No problem. As long as the securities world’s most useful idiots continue to believe that more easing is coming, bad news will be greeted as good news.  You say the Fed governors have promised no such thing? Well, they don’t need to as long as Powell, when addressing his masters on Wall Street, remains on his knees.

Concerning the technical picture, we are still literally banking on Apple shares to tell us when the fat lady is ready to sing. The stock has an outstanding rally target at 243.68 (slightly revised from the 242.48 given here earlier) that looks very likely to be achieved. As long AAPL keeps progressing toward it, the ten-and-a-half-year-old bull market will endure. Yes, this is at odds with the prediction above that the Dow will fall to at least 25,363. But because I am much more certain about Apple’s bullish chart than the Dow’s bearish one, I’ll place my bets on the former for now.

Should be good for pm’s but we’ll see, plus China’s holiday is over

Posted by Buygold @ 18:06 on October 6, 2019  

Futures Set To Slide After China Balks At Pursuing “Broad Trade Deal”

“It’s a funny kind of negotiation where both sides’ so-called concession is something that they need.”

samb – Got ya

Posted by Buygold @ 8:46 on October 6, 2019  

Thanks for the response. We’ll see how it all shakes out. Your DUST might end up being a better bet than DRIP since it seems to be earlier in the move and the pm shares have been weak compared to the move up in the metals.

But hey, what do I know?

I try to buy low and sell high, but too many times end up selling lower, although that’s mostly just in pm shares.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.