OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

@ipsofacto @goldilocks Re my 11:34 No Crime In Japan, But Like Hitler, No Guns Allowed, and Less Human Rights.

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 22:00 on January 22, 2020  

Don’t ever get in trouble over there. I copied and pasted parts of a story, describing guns are 99% not legal, and what the few gun owners have to go thru. The story implies all countries would be better without guns. But the bad guys always find a way.



If you want to buy a gun in Japan you need patience and determination. You have to attend an all-day class, take a written exam and pass a shooting-range test with a mark of at least 95 percent.

There are also mental health and drugs tests. Your criminal record is checked and police look for links to extremist groups. Then they check your relatives too – and even your work colleagues. And as well as having the power to deny gun licences, police also have sweeping powers to search and seize weapons.

That’s not all. Handguns are banned outright. Only shotguns and air rifles are allowed.

The law restricts the number of gun shops. In most of Japan’s 40 or so prefectures there can be no more than three, and you can only buy fresh cartridges by returning the spent cartridges you bought on your last visit.

Police must be notified where the gun and the ammunition are stored – and they must be stored separately under lock and key. Police will also inspect guns once a year. And after three years your license runs out, at which point you have to attend the course and pass the tests again.

This helps explain why mass shootings in Japan are extremely rare. When mass killings occur, the killer most often wields a knife.

“They are the first nation to impose gun laws in the whole world and I think it laid down a bedrock saying that guns really don’t play a part in civilian society.”

To underline the taboo attached to inappropriate use of weapons, an officer who used his gun to kill himself was charged posthumously with a criminal offence. He carried out the act while on duty – policemen never carry weapons off-duty, leaving them at the station when they finish their shift.

According to Iain Overton, the “almost taboo level of rejection” of guns in Japan means that the country is “edging towards a perfect place”

“The criminals pack the guns inside of a tuna so it looks like a frozen tuna,” says retired police officer Tahei Ogawa. “But we have discovered cases where they have actually hidden a gun inside.”


From Murph tonight

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:45 on January 22, 2020  

Ross Norman, meanwhile, has proved the LBMA’s (London Bullion Market Association) number one forecaster over the last 22 years, proving even more reliable than the 144DMA. He pinged me an email with his forecasts for the gold and silver price in 2020. “2019 was the year we learned that central banks are locked into QE-forever,” he said.  He has a point. The Fed’s recent actions coming to the rescue of the ‘repo’ market, which had ground to a halt back in September, and lending money directly, was QE (quantitative easing) by a different name.

Ross continued: “With global debt-to-GDP ratios hitting a record 322% and with equities massively overvalued… it just depends upon when and not if the proverbial hits the fan. Financial markets are trapped and we expect gold to respond by hitting an all time high in the second half of 2020.”

Ross forecasts an average price of $1,755, a high of $2,080 and lows at $1,520. The LBMA’s number one gold forecaster being as bullish as that will be music to the ears of gold bugs.

Silver, meanwhile, was up 15% last year. Ross sees something similar in 2020 with an average price of $19.25, a high of $23.00 and lows around $17.50. Plenty to ponder then. Currently gold sits at $1,560, while silver is at $18. 

I don’t think I’m quite as bullish as Ross or Jim. But I like the cut of their jib. I’m long gold, I’m long silver, and the trend is up.

Enjoy 2020!

Tulsi suing Clinton

Posted by goldielocks @ 19:37 on January 22, 2020  



Posted by Richard640 @ 19:35 on January 22, 2020  

When Bubbles Go Bang

Gary Tanashian – Wednesday, 1/22/2020 09:01

Watch price, volume, RSI…

The NASDAQ bubble popped in 2000 after motoring upward on increasing volume in two separate phases, writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.

Volume rammed upward and RSI diverged [relative strength index, measuring an asset’s current price moves against recent history]. Like shootin’ fish in a barrel it was, except that at the time I was too inexperienced to see it. It was a steep slope and blow out.

And that brings us to the current headline bubble du jour. Oh wait, it’s not vertical and volume is not building. What is the meaning of this??

Well just maybe, this one is going to expire of its own bloat as volume continues to be less interested.

It’s been supported by panic monetary policy every step of the way and, since 2016, a heaping layer of fiscal (read: political) policy as well.

The above are all daily charts showing the approaches to and crack at the top of the respective bubbles. SPX excepted of course, because it has not cracked.

This monthly chart shows that SPX has gone up in 3 major phases with what could be the final one in process now. In this view the current rally looks vertical. Hmm…

RSI is diverging negatively, unlike some of the momo volume bubbles of the past. But again, my thesis is that the bubble is in the extreme policy propping it literally from 2008 to the current day.

It’s going to stop where it stops. Our targets have been 3200 and 3300, which SPX hit last week. There’s another up higher.

But among the things I’d be looking for on the daily chart above is a short burst of volume and a short burst of parabolic activity. May happen, or as noted above, the pig may just roll over of its own bloat (legacy and current policy is bloated beyond comprehension in support of this monolith to the folly of man).



Good Doom porn

Posted by Richard640 @ 19:25 on January 22, 2020  

*IMF warns of new ‘Great Depression’, Russia ahead of the curve due to increased cash & gold reserves

January 22, 2020

Last week, the IMF issued a stark warning about the global economy. While most large Western states are vulnerable to a new crisis, Russia has prepared its defenses.

Kristalina Georgieva isn’t any sort of conspiracy theorist; she’s the head of the International Monetary Fund. And when she warns that the global economy risks another “Great Depression,” you would think everyone would listen. 

But the Western reaction to her statement last week has been muted, with plenty of media outlets leaving it ‘buried in the mainstream’. Or simply ignoring the story. 

For instance, rudimentary Google searches suggest neither the Financial Times nor the Economist have covered her comments at all. If so, it’s ethically questionable but also understandable, in a cynical sense, given their complete attachment to the doctrine of Neo-liberal economics. 

One place Georgieva’s words haven’t fallen on deaf ears is Moscow, because her warning merely confirms what experts in the Russian capital have been saying for years: a major Western financial crash is both inevitable and reasonably imminent. And it’s going to make the 2008 meltdown look mild by comparison. 

The reasons are simple, according to insiders in Russia: western governments have accumulated too much debt over the past decade, and there are a number of concerning bubbles in the system. These include US stocks, German and British property, and the oversized valuations of tech companies, especially startups unlikely to ever return their costs. Throw in aging workforces, wage stagnation, higher living costs, and disruption to traditional industries from IT innovation, and you have all the ingredients needed for a ‘big bang’.


Mr Copper

Posted by goldielocks @ 19:16 on January 22, 2020  

Not everyone in Japan is Japanese anymore. A lot of S Koreans going their for jobs. They’re having less kids slowing their population so a lot of lower level start up jobs are vacant.
They reward law abiding there.
It looks like high profile not wanting to look bad thing going on.
You don’t think we have corruption here? Look what their doing to Trump. The average person doesn’t have the resources or backing to fight that kind of corruption even if it’s a obvious sham. Show their side even with no evidence just speculation not the defense. The people know it too. Democrats showing their corrupt colors for all to see. It’s pathetic that weak accusations they would even get away with it. They’re lousy at it but doesn’t matter when it’s a partisan hack job.

Stray Cats

Posted by commish @ 18:08 on January 22, 2020  


I can see where that might be a problem

Posted by ipso facto @ 17:06 on January 22, 2020  

EV Blog Admits: Tesla’s “Autopilot Will Probably Not Stop For Service Vehicles Parked In Lanes Of Traffic”


Today will gladly be forgotten. Ouch

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:54 on January 22, 2020  

Bernie Sanders Hasn’t Quite Captured What Wall Street Does: It’s Actually a Fraud-Monetization System with a Money-Printing Unit Called the New York Fed

Posted by Richard640 @ 16:15 on January 22, 2020  

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 21, 2020 ~

Senator Bernie Sanders has come closer than anyone on the Presidential campaign trail in defining what Wall Street actually does. Sanders has repeatedly stated at his rallies that “the business model of Wall Street is fraud.”

That analysis is correct but abbreviated. Sanders needs to go further. It’s not just Wall Street’s business model that has left the United States with the greatest wealth inequality since the Roaring Twenties (a time when Wall Street investment banks were also allowed to own deposit-taking banks). It’s how Wall Street is monetizing that fraud that poses an existential threat to the solvency of the United States and the impoverishment of millions of Americans.

The attempted WeWork Initial Public Offering (IPO) of last year was a classic example of how Wall Street can put lipstick on a pig, pass it off as a hot new startup company, and sell its shares, which were overpriced by about $40 billion, to unwary public pension funds and mutual funds that dominate millions of Americans’ 401(k) plans. The IPO failed to materialize simply because alternative media sent the dirty details of the offering viral, forcing business media to cover the story.

Rather than being a hot new tech startup with oodles of potential, WeWork was a money-losing real estate leasing company with a grifter as its CEO. That, however, didn’t stop two of the largest law firms, Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett, from representing the company and the underwriters, respectively, and it didn’t stop two of the biggest firms on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, from trying to unload the dog of a deal on investors for a hefty underwriting fee.


Pod Peeple=Sure, that’s the greatest economy ever.

Posted by Richard640 @ 15:59 on January 22, 2020  
The economy is now crashing upwards. There hasn’t even been fake growth since 2014 and the entire climb of the stock market is due to multiple expansion. Tesla’s sales actually declined YOY, only rescued by fake reporting of cars supposedly paid for with checks. Yet the stock has added an entire BMW of market cap in three weeks.
Twenty somethings can only look to a bright future of living in 80sq ft pods while working for a Megacap in San Francisco while dodging needles and shit walking to work.
Sure, that’s the greatest economy ever.=
BRIDGEWATER’S PRINCE=As a reminder, in 2018 cash ended up being the best performing assets. And with Bridgewater now claiming that “this time is totally different”, will 2020 be another painful repeat of 2018?


The market is in the process of going parabolic, what do you think is likely to be the outcome?!
We all know anytime a billionaire tells you something on live TV you will almost always profit by doing the opposite.
This story was already written about 100 years ago:
“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

A ZH reader

Posted by Richard640 @ 15:54 on January 22, 2020  
Despite being all-in equities right now I’m still a big believer in Hyman Minsky’s Market Instability Hypothesis and yes, we’re now in what Minsky described as the Ponzi Investment phase.
Long term this comment will surely come back to haunt Mr. Jensen, short term I find hugely encouraging for continued market gains and short or long term, it’s all wildly entertaining and insanely fun.
Staying long, locking in gains and looking forward to more gains.  It’s STILL FREE MONEY and it’s still just laying there waiting for someone to pick it up.
How can anybody not be enjoying this shit?  This is a GREAT time to be alive.


Posted by Richard640 @ 15:49 on January 22, 2020  
but also to the broader cycle of economic expansion and contraction that repeats itself. And as a result of central bank intervention since the financial crisis and monetary easing, that cycle has effectively been disrupted and has helped fuel the longest-running bull market in stocks. That has also led the hedge fund industry to struggle to match gains of passive funds tracking indexes, since virtually no downturns are now possible with central banks intervening every time there is even a modest downturn, something which BofA first pointed out in December 2017 when it wrote that “In Every Market Shock Since 2013 Central Banks Have Stepped In To Protect Markets.“It now appears that this last piece of tinfoil “conspiracy theory” has become “fact”, validated by one of the most respected stewards of other people’s money.
Or, in other words, “stocks prices have reached what looks like a permanently rising plateau.”
Could Bridgewater merely be talking its book? Certainly: the world’s biggest hedge funds suffered its first annual loss since 2000 in its most prominent Pure Alpha II last year, largely as a result of hedging, or short trades. The fund lost 0.5%, only the fourth annual decline since starting in 1991. As such, perhaps Prince’s observation is just a warning that Bridgewater will no longer actually “hedge” and will go all in on the long side.
That may also explain why Prince said that performance this year has been so far good for the firm. It certainly explains why just yesterday, his boss Ray Dalio, rehashes his warning from Jan 2018 – just before the market cracked – when he urged investors not to miss out an opportunity to benefit from strong markets. “Cash is trash,” he said in a CNBC interview in Davos on Tuesday. “There’s still a lot of money in cash.”
As a reminder, in 2018 cash ended up being the best performing assets. And with Bridgewater now claiming that “this time is totally different”, will 2020 be another painful repeat of 2018?


Posted by Richard640 @ 15:38 on January 22, 2020  


The potential BOOM-BUST-CYCLE-IS-OVER top

Could the rally continue?  For sure.  We have crossed firmly into speculative mode.  Is this a great “investment opportunity?”  Not a friggin’ chance…

Thanks for reading,
Kevin Muir
the MacroTourist

PS:  If we end up topping somewhere in here, I will label this the BOOM-BUST-CYCLE-IS-OVER top.  There was another Prince who said something about “dancing while the music was playing” that top ticked the previous cycle.  I sure hope for this Prince’s sake, history doesn’t repeat.

Fib Resonance Target

Posted by Captain Hook @ 14:05 on January 22, 2020  

…is ~ 3450 SPX.

Wouldn’t doubt for a minute it can get there with all the money they are throwing at this thing.

Don’t know how they cut the junky off ever now.

The money printers are trapped.

It will get very ugly at some point.


Hi R640

Posted by Maddog @ 13:40 on January 22, 2020  

Option talk is way beyond my vocabulary, they have turned it into a foreign language….which as far as I can see is just camouflage/bullshit for a rigged mkt, where on expiration they just use brute force, to ram the basis to the mid point of largest OI strike .


Posted by ipso facto @ 13:36 on January 22, 2020  

No one said anything about you being “un-American.”

I see you deleted the main part of the post yourself. You didn’t need to do that. It’s free speech you know.

Watch the S&P 3320-30-50 area-this is beyond my ken-though I get the general idea–Maddog or Capt Hook care to make a brief comment?

Posted by Richard640 @ 12:15 on January 22, 2020  
“Buying Momentum Has Fizzled Out”: CTAs Are Now All-In
estimates of major hedge funds’ exposure to DM equities (30-day beta) show that more hedge funds are exiting longs now than was the case at the end of December. Of course, long/short funds and other fundamentals-based, value-oriented investors following bottom-up strategies are feeling out dips to buy. Prior to this, however, global macro hedge funds, managed futures funds, and other such top-down investors had already started moving last week to tentatively unwind long positions, partly in response to the apparent depletion of market-positive news.
Finally, going back to what has been a key market driver, namely (extreme) dealer delta and gamma positioning, McElligott writes that we “did see some of that “extreme” $Gamma and $Delta “drop-off” after last week’s expiry; however, enough was rolled “out and up” to maintain “still extreme” historic percentiles ($Gamma still 88th %ile since 2014; $Delta still 96th %ile).
So for those asking where is the next level (of gamma gravity), McElligott answers that “well outside of the meaningful aggregate $Gamma “in and around” here ($6.0B at 3300 strike, another $17B btwn 3310 and 3330)”, the “new” largest line is the +$6.3B at the 3350 strike” as dealers remain “very long” which in turn helps insulate the market from shocks while allowing the relentless creep higher in risk prices to continue unabated.
It also means that if and when the selling returns and the S&P breaks below 3,300, it’s going to be a long way down.

This makes sense and will kill the SM stone dead

Posted by Maddog @ 12:15 on January 22, 2020  


ipso facto no, I love guns and accessories.

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 11:56 on January 22, 2020  

Does that post make me appear anti American?? Geez. Delete it for me.

Skeena Resources getting beaten up today

Posted by ipso facto @ 11:43 on January 22, 2020  

Mr. Copper … Have you become a gun control advocate?

No Crime In Japan Because Everyone There Is Japanese.

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 11:34 on January 22, 2020  


Everybody in Japan is Japanese. 🙂 And the country is like a dictatorship. No human rights. Did you hear about the Nissan CEO? No bail, and they told him they will be hard on him until he confesses. No prompt trial either. He was there 400 days in jail, until he probably got “escaped” with a big bribe. Or pay off. Why is the USA doing business with that country? And communist China? And communist Russia? During Vietnam, we were told we needed to stop the spread of communism. My shoes were made in Vietnam. Figure that out.



EMX Royalty having a good day

Posted by Ororeef @ 11:03 on January 22, 2020  

Masks and airport checks for Chinese SARS-like virus are there to keep population calm – no government can stop its spread now

Posted by ipso facto @ 11:02 on January 22, 2020  


Maybe I’m too optimistic

Posted by Buygold @ 10:35 on January 22, 2020  

but I get the sense that these shares don’t want to die…

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.