Loading ...The United States Moving To and Through Pivotal Elections:
The US continues to be a nation divided at levels of polarization not seen since 1860. This is likely to worsen until (and beyond) the November 3, 2020, Presidential and Congressional elections.
The internal US schism profoundly hampers both the attention which the US President can devote to strategic issues, and the prestige which gives the office influence. Thus, most of the strategic actions by the incumbent President fail to get attention in the US polity, such as initiatives to cement a new economic and power framework in Central Asia, extending through a resolution of the Afghanistan conflict, and linking to the Indian Ocean via Pakistan. And attempts since 2017 to break up PRC strategies (BRI) to control Eurasia and Africa.
Of primary importance, then, is whether the US misses great opportunities in 2020 and possibly fails to start to regain unity in 2021, and whether the US can itself regain cohesion at all. It is not inconceivable that the US could see greater moves toward secession by some states, or toward violence between urban-controlled state structures against nationalist elements.
In the US, it is the society-level schism which could work profoundly against the success of the state, as opposed to the PRC where it is the state which is now moving (again) against society.
A Turning Point for Africa:
The collapse of the PRC’s suzerainty over much of Africa has meant a collapse of security there, and a return to corruption at a leadership level in those particular states.
he absence of accountability or major-power pressure means that rapid decline should be expected in 2020 in South Africa, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and elsewhere on the Continent. Problems persist in the Horn of Africa and North Africa. This instability is being exploited substantially by Turkey, working alone and through Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) conduits, and by Iran.
The fundamental decline in PRC investment and loans (and the pressure by Beijing for African states to deliver resources and other outcomes), as well as a tapering off of PRC purchases of resources from African states, will mean growing economic malaise in Africa. This will lead to an impetus toward mass migration to Europe (in particular) at a time when the EU states are increasingly less able to cope economically with this.
A similar scenario could apply to much of Latin America and for similar reasons.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/we-are-entering-period-global-uncertainty