The torrential rain has begun, and all those that have been making such easy money selling flood insurance have begun to panic. And I don’t think the prospect for zero rates and massive QE is about to instill calm and confidence. Indeed, the entire notion of open-ended QE and fiscal deficits creates acute market uncertainty. How does this melt-up in Treasury prices impact “carry trade” speculation in corporate Credit? Could dollar prospects (and currency market stability) be murkier in such a policy backdrop? How does such uncertainty play for global leveraged speculation? It is difficult to envisage a scenario where myriad global risks (i.e. coronavirus, financial, economic, policy, geopolitical) don’t incite a momentous de-risking/deleveraging dynamic. The odds of the dreadful global “seizing up” scenario are rising. The Modern-Day Bank Run.
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