Loading ...Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes:
What about the the “winner” in the 2016 polling fiasco, the Democracy Institute, and its Latest Poll for September:
- Only asks likely voters, and asks about so-called ‘shy votes’.
- Trump leads Biden 46%-45%, nationally.
- Trump leads in swing states (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI) 47% to 43%.
- Trump’s swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes, and Biden 218.
- 77% of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family.
- Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters.
- Law and order is top issue (32%). Economy is second (30%).
- Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden: 60% to 40%, respectively
But wait, there’s more shocks, because according to Camelot, Republicans are also likely to retain their control of the Senate.
- Current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents.
- 35 Senate seats up for grabs.
- 23 seats are held by Republicans; 12 held by Democrats.
- Republicans at disadvantage; need to protect more seats.
- Most vulnerable incumbents are in: Alabama (Jones-D), Colorado (Gardner-R), Maine (Collins-R), Michigan (Peters-D).
- Assuming Trump polling in these four states will determine the Senate race: Republicans likely to pick up AL, Democrats likely to pick up CO and Maine – for net gain of one seat in Senate.
- Outlier Scenarios: Trafalgar polling shows Republican in Michigan (John James) with slight lead; and Democrat in North Carolina with slight lead.
- Likely November: Republicans keep Senate control with 52 seats.
Finally, in what may be the worst possible news for markets which are now convinced a blue sweep is inevitable, Camelot says that Democrats will continue their dominance in the House, where they have a clear advantage:
- 2016: RealClearPolitics Average had Democrats +0.6 near Election Day -> Final was Republicans +1.1 -> GOP lost 6 seats; maintained majority 241-194
- 2018: RealClearPolitics Average had Democrats +7.3 near Election Day -> Final was Democrats +8.4 -> Democrats gained 41 seats; retook majority 235-199
- 2020: RealClearPolitics Average has Democrats +6.0 during the last week.
Readers curious for more can register for the next Camelot call, which will take place next Tuesday, Oct 13 at the following link.