OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Maddog Buygold

Posted by goldielocks @ 22:53 on December 10, 2019  

I too am so tired of hearing the negative and the big crash or meltdown but even Armstrong is talking about it.
I have little clue what repos are doing but don’t seem to have any secure plan for managing large sums of money.

I guess for us clueless with real world issues to keep us busy if it plays out like they say look for these signs for those who didn’t read it or having trouble understanding it without having time for research like me.

Translated: “Treasury yields will spike”, Pozsar warns,  identifying the trigger of forced sales of Treasuries around year-end as the FX swap market. It gets worse, because the selloff that is triggered by a freeze in the FX swap market will promptly lead to a crash in the bonds market, and spread from there, or as Pozsar puts it, “these funding market stresses will likely pull away capital and hence balance sheet from equity long-short strategies which could spill over into a broader equity selloff… during a Treasury selloff – that’s not the right kind of risk parity Christmas.”
Which brings us to punchline #1: the dismal liquidity situation within the US commercial bank sector is so dire, that the shortage of reserves will start a cascade of liquidations beginning in the FX swap market, progressing to Treasurys, and culminating in stocks… and a full-blown market crash.

Maddog, Buygold…

Posted by amals @ 22:24 on December 10, 2019  

Just skimmed the ZH articles, printed and will read later.  But I must say it’s timely stuff; seems this sort of thing could be an answer to my questions of last night, i.e. how it could all come to an end.  An event like this, a major crash, could certainly shake some confidences.  Though it wouldn’t end the Fed, or other central bank money creation.  No, probably not a solution.

Hey Maddog

Posted by Buygold @ 15:42 on December 10, 2019  

You obviously have a lot better understanding than I do but your statement about hedge funds is not lost on me and it sounds like they could be the match that lights the fire.

I guess we’ll see how smart this guy is, I know there were some problems in the last repo.

Buygold

Posted by Maddog @ 15:34 on December 10, 2019  

Re Repo’s……as part of the problem is regulatory, the G-Sib’s, that could be changed/fixed if a problem occurs…..however that hedge funds are using massive leverage in the Repo mkt, is a worrying fact, as only a small move could wipe them out and set off a cascade of liquidation……and the short term money mkt, is infamous for huge moves, often just round dates, such as year/quarter/month end, due to liquidity constraints only, as books close, so the hedgies are really playing with fire.

Why the Fed is allowing them to is a very good question, as the mkt does not need them and should be just for short term financing. Operating cleanly, the mkt is an excellent indicator of banking health, why distort it, just for some Co’s potential gain.

Posted by Maya @ 15:14 on December 10, 2019  

leaning-to-left

 

Interesting read about the Repocalypse

Posted by Buygold @ 13:43 on December 10, 2019  

We’ll see how the Fed paper’s over this problem if this guru is right.

“It’s About To Get Very Bad” – Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash In Days

“FX swaps could end up as the orphaned asset class without an obvious backstop, and that may force banks in some parts of the world to the edge of the proverbial abyss.”

“Which brings us to the first of the key observations made by Pozsar: since the Fed’s repos and T-Bill monetizations have done virtually nothing to boost prevailing reserve levels on a sustained basis, “year-end balance sheet constrains will preclude primary dealers from bidding for reserves from the Fed through the repo facility or through repos from money funds. The slope of money market curves suggest that excess reserves won’t build up at banks, and so U.S. banks will not be able to fill the market making vacuum left by foreign banks.”

In other words, the already thin liquidity at year end (which as a reminder, last December 31 sent repo rates soaring even though excess reserves were about $100 billion more than they are now) could get far worse as a result of the Fed’s inability to properly address the reserves (cash) shortage plaguing banks.”

FYI Some Interesting Things I Noticed Today

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 13:34 on December 10, 2019  

ENLC + 16% today. Pays 28% on Schwab and 23% on Finviz. I’m not sure what a “partners LLC” is.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=enlc&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

NGL similar b/o pays 15%?

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ngl&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

PALL Palladium ETF https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=pall&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

SBGL I’ve been on this one Palladium Platinum related miner. “PGMs”

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=sbgl&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

IMPUY ANGPY also PGMs (platinum group metals)

1.5 year views some precious metals. Palladium a stand out.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=w1

same pattern as yesterday

Posted by drb2 @ 10:34 on December 10, 2019  

nice climb up …..until NY opens and the beatings begin

 

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Virginia sheriff to pre-empt Democrat gun grab by ‘deputizing’ thousands of ordinary citizens so they can keep their firearms

Posted by Ororeef @ 9:24 on December 10, 2019  

yeah !

Them theres the CIA

Posted by Ororeef @ 9:14 on December 10, 2019  

with a MUSLIM at its head….what the fuck !

HOROWITZ

Posted by Ororeef @ 9:09 on December 10, 2019  

just another RIG for the Mushroom people   ….You do know who they are dont you ?  You know how they grow Mushroms ?     You keep them in the DARK and feed them a bunch of Shit..

An Obama appointee from the controlled  media ..they pretend to play both sides  ,so either way they win..  RIGGED from the start like a scripted Hollywood bad movie.   TAKE 10 % of the TOP people in the FBI and FIRE them !

Posted by Floridagold @ 8:54 on December 10, 2019  

Bullion is the only real hedge

Gold has had a great run in 2019.

Over the last year, gold prices are up nearly 20%. The yellow metal is on pace for its best year since 2010.

In a note to clients published over the weekend, analysts at Goldman Sachs outlined why the strategic case for owning gold remains strong. The firm cites political uncertainty and recession fears that are unlikely to abate as primary catalysts, among other worries among the global elite like wealth taxes and increasing talk about MMT and central bank effectiveness.

By 2020, the firm thinks the price of gold will reach $1,600 an ounce; on Monday, gold was trading near $1,460.

But the firm also surfaces some really interesting data on how investors have expressed their desire to own gold. Which is that owning the physical metal seems to be the global elite’s preferred way to hedge against tail events.

“Since the end of 2016 the implied build in non-transparent gold investment has been much larger than the build in visible gold ETFs,” the firm writes, citing the chart below.

Trade data implies that gold in storage has increased far more rapidly than is reflected by financial market instruments, indicating a widespread preference for physical gold instead of gold-linked financial assets. (Source: Goldman Sachs)

In plain English, this means that for those including gold in their end-of-the-world trade, owning gold bullion is a must.

“This [data] is consistent with reports that vault demand globally is surging,” the firm writes.

“Political risks, in our view, help explain this because if an individual is trying to minimize the risks of sanctions or wealth taxes, then buying physical gold bars and storing them in a vault, where it is more difficult for governments to reach them, makes sense.”

“Finally, this build can also reflect hedges by global high net worth individuals against tail economic and political risk scenarios in which they do not want to have any financial entity intermediating their gold positions due to the counter-party credit risk involved.”

This thesis also brings to mind Evan Osnos’ 2017 New Yorker story that chronicled efforts from the super rich to prepare luxurious hideaways that will see them through the apocalypse.

The head of an investment firm told Osnos that, “A lot of my friends do the guns and the motorcycles and the gold coins. That’s not too rare anymore.”

As Osnos chronicled, underground bunkers with air-filtration systems and helicopters that are gassed up and ready to go are now the real differentiators in the prepper community.

If you want to be truly prepped, then owning gold is just table stakes.

And for Goldman Sachs, that reality helps round out the already strong thesis for investing in gold.

By Myles Udland, reporter and co-anchor of The Final Round. Follow him @MylesUdland

Morning Amals

Posted by Buygold @ 8:26 on December 10, 2019  

Me too.

There was an article yesterday posted by Maddog on ZH about the liquidity shortage created by JPM that caused the recent repocalyse as they call it (not QE) – apparently they’ll have to keep doing this into year end to shore up a lack of liquidity in the system.

I guess this is sort of another slap upside the head that says, the world’s central banks can paper over any problem. The only thing they need to do is keep gold in check to keep the appearance that there is nothing wrong with the system.

This explains an awful lot about Trump’s problems……and should enrage all taxpayers.

Posted by Maddog @ 3:43 on December 10, 2019  

Former Ukrainian Prosecutor Exposes Yovanovich Perjury, George Kent’s Motive To Impeach T

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/former-ukrainian-prosecutor-exposes-yovanovich-perjury-george-kents-motive-impeach

Very good post amals, you are not alone in your thinking.

Posted by macroman3 @ 1:47 on December 10, 2019  

They are going to have to pry it from my cold dead hands.

I’m only being stubborn for my Grandkids chance to rule the world (what’s left of it).

R640 post @ 21:58

Posted by amals @ 22:46 on December 9, 2019  

This is one of the things that really troubles me.  I see the reality of what’s been happening and wonder how long it can go on.  For about fifteen years I have believed we are headed for financial meltdown, and have preached it as a caution to family and friends.  This fiat expansion is unsustainable and has to collapse. Yet the game goes on.  And on.  And, according to the author of R’s post, on some more… ten years more.  Can it?  How will it end?  What will make it end?  A loss of confidence in fiat currency?  By whom?  The ones who are seeing their stocks rise and rise?  Not likely.  It’s so discouraging to be on the wrong side of a trade for such a long time simply because it shouldn’t be.  But it is, and continues to be.  I am one of the people in that post, ranting that it can’t be, all the while watching as it is what it is.  Are you one of those people, too?  Any thoughts about changing your position?

I’m about to go buy Zimbabwe bonds and JPM stock

Posted by Aguila @ 22:45 on December 9, 2019  

and the rest of it I’ll spend on FREON

Money is funny but I’m not laughing anymore

a copper colored dawn??

Posted by treefrog @ 22:34 on December 9, 2019  

copper stocks rising, on the cusp of a breakout…

copper (metal) prices rising…

copper has in the past, often been the bellwether of a commodities bull.

it may be too early to break out the bubbly, but there’s room for optimism.

Stocks, bonds have a foundational bid underneath them for the next decade=Peter Lynch meets Warren Buffet type equity analysis of yesterday

Posted by Richard640 @ 21:58 on December 9, 2019  
A ZH READER OPINES:
Only honest assessment of reality Team Tyler has posted in 10 years. 
As i’ve been writing for multiple years now’
The equity market is going higher. You dont have to like the reasons. But if you are a trader, you position correctly to the marketplace. 
And it is blowing you kids and these authors minds.
  • On one hand they acknowledge the global profligacy of fiat creation (inflation) by virtually every central bank
  • They understand that banks around the world (who the primary recipients of these inflated fiats) distribute these fiats via loans to govts, corps, small biz and consumers. (Bonds and equities..so there is an incredibly massive standing bid for these assets…to just deploy capital)
  • They comprehend that policy makers are the ones giving the money directly to the consumers via handouts and tax breaks, but this is markedly harder then it is for the CB’s to orchestrate
  • For 20 years now they see these kids have valued these companies on clicks, page-views and likes over traditional revenue GAAP metrics
  • And recognize HFT (which amounts to 80% of equities trading), has models that virtually ignore valuation metrics and are algorithmically looking at technical set-ups, trends and literally “tweets”
EVERYTHING i wrote above, they know about. 
  • And put that all together and you have tons of liquidity schloshing around the system, chasing assets, ignoring yesterdays valuation heuristics.
  • And yet, we continually get these articles blatantly ignoring the realities above, and reverting back to some Peter Lynch meets Warren Buffet type equity analysis of yesterday, in a world that has just inherited trillions of dollars in profligacy, sitting uninvested, and needing to be deployed…and they’re shocked??????? 
And it is blowing their minds apart. They cannot come to grips with it because to them, it “doesn’t seem right” or is “broken” or “fake”.
HERE’S THE NEWS FLASH: WE do NOT get a chance to have a meaningful say wether or not you agree with it. What any of you THINK really…. is absolutely 100% irrelevant. They CBs are printing in NYC, in Brussels and in China for a minimum of 15 years.. 
You play the cards you’re dealt. Stud Poker. 5 cards. Thats it. They’re profligate, and going to inflate fiat and debts for 15 years.
Many here,  see and comprehend what they’re doing (their hands), hate it, and are throwing your cards up in the air like children.
Do yourself a favor…go buy a CD and Cryptos and get out of the kitchen if you can’t stand the heat.
Stocks, bonds have a foundational bid underneath them for the next decade.

The article by Diane Francis in today’s Financial Post lays out the prospects for

Posted by Equisetum @ 20:11 on December 9, 2019  

the two-thirds of Canadian voters who carelessly gave temporary and illusory governing power to the unstable left-leaning side of the political spectrum in Canada ( namely, the Liberal Party of Canada, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party, plus a sizable contingent of newly-elected and left-leaning members of Parliament from Quebec) .  The Diane Francis article would not link for me to post here, but it can be accessed under the title “The inevitable Trudeau recession will ravage the West and the middle class”.  I hope you lefties sink the furthest into the economic hell-hole you have just set up for the rest of us.

Back to $gold talk

Posted by Samb @ 19:27 on December 9, 2019  

Despite all the important goings on, there is still the state of the gold market to consider. And despite the Friday  gold market debacle re: the blowout jobs report…All my signals remain GO, and I’m all in long. Perhaps a few days or even a week early but, I have now solid signals that we have entered a new intermediate long cycle.

Alex Valdor

Posted by Maddog @ 18:51 on December 9, 2019  

Re Horowitz…..no society can survive a two tier system, something will crack eventually.

Posted by Maya @ 18:39 on December 9, 2019  

stg120519_color

 

Well , the Horowitz report appears to be a coverup .

Posted by Alex Valdor @ 17:38 on December 9, 2019  

Very sad !

Volcker and buddies :

Posted by Alex Valdor @ 16:09 on December 9, 2019  

5d351550-cd3f-4285-8333-7a6943fe1993

Older Posts »
Go to Top

Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.