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Posted by Midnight Gardener
@ 20:59 on October 17, 2024
Hi Winedoc
Sitting here enjoying a glass of Teruzzi Peperino, a nice red I picked up in Italy this summer.
Gold at ATH. Sweet. Ok, so the phys is “doing well”. Great, but it doesn’t seem to get the excitement, Not sure why Im not bouncing off the walls. I guess Im just so jaded that it will take a 100 dollar up day and the shares up 20% in a day,
Ive been long and strong since 2000, Returns have been good, so why am I not thrilled. Who knows.
90% G and S in the holdings and 10% Uranium. Another good position, I don’t seem care about that one either.
I think its the juniors wrecking everyones day. Im sure we all hold a few. Crickets there.
I have a big position, for me, in CGC. Talk about a lesson in patience. Management good. Fundamentals good bla bla bla. Decent drill results and a good story don’t mean a thing.
Maybe when the juniors move, the wine will taste a bit sweeter.
Premiums on silver eagles at the dealer I use are pretty healthy, over $5. Demand must be decent. He’s paying $1 over spot. Paper silver appears to be too cheap.
Paying just under spot on gold eagles though.
Why do I get the feeling that silver is the wrecking ball in the paper markets?
as shown by the lack of volume is pretty much the only thing the scum has going for itself, makes it easy for Aladdin to push things down like we see almost every afternoon. Especially in the shares. Hopefully when we start to see some volume, we’ll get short covering like we always tend to see in the regular SM
I think that’s right. Earnings for the majors should be strong again when they report in a couple of weeks. It’s sort of an unwritten rule here on Wall Street not to touch pm shares, anything pm really, but greed will take care of that eventually and momentum players will come in. I don’t know when, maybe after this quarter’s earnings, maybe after gold and silver hold certain levels for a while, I really don’t know, but I suspect when they do finally go, they’ll go up lightning fast.
Hard to see it will be that much longer. As for the juniors, they need to show some decent profits as well. There are still stocks like AG out there that are serial underperformers that need to get their crap together.
I think we’ll start seeing some good things before year end. Can’t stress enough the need for some volume though, then these computers will have a much tougher time keeping things down.
re the shares the more I think about them, the more it looks like they are ready to go ape….Earnings have to explode, that will ram the yields through the roof….at current levels u may well see double digit yields in the majors….couple that with the chance the shares could go six times, just to match previous highs and the massive shorts that the Algo’s must have and u have a very explosive situation….and when it comes to the majors and Divi’s…u can’t naked short them without paying the dividend….and more importantly the buyer will demand the certificates….for the dividend….
Once the majors start to run, then the juniors will look cheap and again the Algo shorts will have to cover …..as the cheaper they stay, the cheaper u can buy the metal in the ground…..the shorts are ‘effed here.
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 12:25 on October 17, 2024
One thing is for sure, they can’t stop debasing the currency/system like they used to do … not with all their growing commitments and ballooning deficits.
They spend money like drunken sailors on steroids now.
Thing is, they have held off on ceasing Quantitative Tightening (QT) in front of the election for optics but need to get on it right afterwards with bonds ready to melt down without QE to keep yields suppressed.
So, the question is how long they will go post-election before QE is rolled out and the bull market in the metals really gets going with negative real yields trending down again a la the stagflation these geniuses have already guaranteed in terms of an outcome moving into next year.
If markets are still future discounting mechanisms … the answer should be not long.
Just seems that the extent of what they’ve been able to do lately is what they’re doing now intraday. They come in, dump some contracts all at once, and knock silver down $.20 and gold $5-10 bucks. Then they are either slowly covering or some steady buying is right behind it. According to the COT, they’ve covered 40K+ contracts in the last couple weeks in gold. They can always rely on Aladdin to consistently dump shares in the ETF’s all day long, but it almost looks like they’re trying to unwind at Crimex. Maybe I’m just doing some wishful thinking, but on a day like today, if they could have waterfalled us, they would have.
Then there’s bonds, with rates up 1/2% since they cut a 1/2. Dollar strength. What happens when they do QE in the bond market and the dollar reverses? Crazy times.
Seems they are lucky there’s no real interest in pm’s in the US, because all they are doing now is slowing the ascent.
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 11:08 on October 17, 2024
I certainly hope you are right.
Key ratio charts are supportive of such an outcome.
Few square head thinkers are looking for such an outcome with the COT positionings being so extreme.
Personally, I don’t care because I don’t trade the vast majority of my holdings, but I would still like to see the shares get a jolt with a silver breakout.
And if we need to wait for another COT cycle – so be it.
We need to see strong yearly closes in gold and silver this year in order to pave the way for 2025.
So, a little weakness over the next month would not necessarily be a bad thing if December is a good month – especially for the shares after tax loss season. (Of course we may need to wait until January.)
Back in 2020:a auditor picks apart the COMEX you can’t trust them or their pricing and why. They self audit, no chain of custody can’t prevent manipulation don’t know how much they have.
That’s good then. Hard to see it as a “sell the news event. The shares are starting to firm up, the dollar and rates are becoming irrelevant to our prices, although they’ve had a pretty good grip on silver.
I think we’re about to blow the cap off this sector. JMHO
Posted by Captain Hook
@ 10:29 on October 17, 2024
Actually the BRIC’s meeting is next week.
And while it could be a ‘buy the rumor – sell the news’ event with current COT positions – what nobody is discounting right now is an announcement that the “Unit’ will be live as of next week.
All of the gold buying over the past year is certainly sniffing out the eventuality of the Unit coming online at some point in the future; but, such an announcement next week would be a surprise because of last year’s (BRIC’s meeting) disappointment.
Such an outcome would certainly send gold to $3,000 very quickly; and quite likely break silver above the $32.50 minot line … possibly causing some cabal defections and a big squeeze in the LMBA and COMEX paper. (they will attempt to preserve their jobs)
You can’t count on such an outcome but markets like surprises … and that would be a doozy.
Couldn’t agree more. Dollar doesn’t seem to matter much anymore does it?
BRICS meeting next month in Russia?
Fiat currencies in the west are becoming untenable.
They try to mask the strength by keeping the miners weak. They can do that until Aladdin has to trade more than 5-10 shares at a time.
Best they are doing now is dumping a bunch of contracts to knock us back some during the day, just to keep us from flying. How much longer can they do that until we start having $100 up days?
They keep dropping the bids, but no trades are made until the bids tick up, and if there is a trade, it’s 10 shares. Same thing with SLV to a lesser extent.
The games these computers play. How could you ever have actual price discovery?
Afghan Taliban Vow To Implement Media Ban On Images Of Living Things
Afghanistan’s Taliban morality ministry pledged Monday to implement a law banning news media from publishing images of all living things, with journalists told the rule will be gradually enforced.
It comes after the Taliban government recently announced legislation formalising their strict interpretations of Islamic law that have been imposed since they swept to power in 2021.
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