Ipso – a little short covering or maybe buying into the close. Hopefully a sign of better things ahead. This was a rough week for us.
Rates really turned today, they were down big after the jobs report but ended over 4 bips higher – a 10 point turnaround.
maddog – pretty big reversal for oil too. Rates and oil sort of explain the action in the metals, Funny how the SM just sails along no matter what happens.
…going green on the day.
Here we can see the Hit on Gold and ram in Oil…..both 15 minute charts Note the way Oil broke down then was immediately rammed higher, not once but twice…no was was Oil going to be allowed to break……hopefully Bessant will onto this.
Gold is the ‘special needs’ child, the abuser, the serial killer, the sicko child rapist, and the wanna be super hero of the trading world, eh.
Gold rallies $ 40 bucks then drop $ 100 all in 4 hrs ..then goes to sleep at the lows…..no normal mkt does that .
… for about 19 seconds …
I agree. It certainly strengthens the dollar, the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry basket! The moneyed class is packing their bags.
Cheers
Voila
……and this also rationalizes the argument as to why the US $ is so strong ( even in the face of a weaker jobs market in the US). French/Euro money looking to leave European markets and will be parked elsewhere ( US). Coupled with the Russia/Euro war drums beating louder and louder; also strengthens out flow of money from Euroland…..
Michael A. Arouet
@MichaelAArouet
Most people don’t yet grasp what is happening in France. Markets are pricing French sovereign debt as junk, rating agencies will eventually have to follow. This will have two major impacts:
1. Most French banks are already rated at or just below the sovereign, so a move toward junk would likely drag domestically focused lenders with it. Credit to households and firms would slow sharply, hurting the economy and widening the fiscal deficit even further, a vicious cycle.
2. For the ECB, the constraint is legal as well as financial. A fall below investment grade would force sales by ratings-bound investors while making any backstop harder to justify under current rules.
The next euro crisis will begin in France. The first, which began in Greece, will feel like a walk in the park compared with what comes next.
Looks like they had $60 silver planned for the weekly close all week. This is just brute force paper selling that started at the open.
No idea why the metals were up yesterday. They must’ve needed some players to puke.🤮
The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
BREAKING: Iran has just struck an oil tanker conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz under US escort in the US-backed southern Omani corridor, with a fire and a blackout on board, per UKMTO.
It is the 6th vessel Iran has struck in the Strait this week.
One thing that seems interesting to me it seems practically every year at end of the year when they decide the COLA cost of living data they determine the percent of SS increase the inflation rate is always manipulated down.
Your right about that but if they weren’t so eager to jump in so fast although testing the water they wouldn’t be all over the place.
This is the answer I got. Had to change my question from why is it going down cuz it said it’s going up to why it is going down after rising in so many words.
Gold and silver initially rallied after a soft jobs report because weaker employment data initially led traders to price in lower interest rates and weaker real yields, before reversing sharply lower as the market pivoted toward fears of persistent inflation, a surging U.S. dollar, and rising Treasury yields
I suspect it’s a case of burnt fingers and lack of interest. If the SM weren’t higher, these shares would be crushed.
That is weird. I’m going to see if I can find out why. Wonder if it has to do with liquidity.
Pros and cons: As well as treasuries dropping with the labor market cooling due to higher borrowing cost. Although congratulating themselves for job loses may come back on them with the GDP in time that comes out right after the next Fed announcement and consumption. Both the SM and gold bugs still have to watch out in a couple weeks for the CPI data coming out on the 14th.
and the SM best efforts to help us, they’ve got the metals pinned down. Every attempt to move higher is squashed.
not much else. Hopefully we can shake them off, but they are selling in big chunks, especially silver.
I guess the metals had no business being higher yesterday because of dollar strength.
Dollar and rates inching back up now. The only thing they effect negatively is pm’s. Oil down $4, bitcoin up $2K, SM flying.
Looks like tears are coming.
Jobs Huge Miss: Sept Payrolls Plunge To Just 29K, Below All Estimates As July Revised Negative
In our jobs preview post, we told readers to “beware a bond squeeze as august seasonals reverse” and boy were we right: yields are tumbling from 5.22% to 5.16%, a new weekly low, as all those record TSY shorts get bigly squeezed following what was a big miss in the September jobs print which tumbled from a downward revised August (as we said it would be) 133K vs 162K originally to just 29K.
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
BREAKING:
Second and third-generation migrants beat down a female policer in France.
*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaone
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18h
IRAN OFFERS TO ALLOW NUCLEAR INSPECTORS IF SANCTIONS ARE EASED
