did a little nibbling around the shares a couple of hours ago.

These guys are going to bring the SM back if they can get oil to flat.

If that does happen, even the miners might catch a bid.

I guess we’ll know in a little while whether we have it right or not.

The power of paper. Imagine how much it took to manage this turn.

We need silver to step it up here and drag gold with it.

Was the US attack on Iran the right thing to do?

No (52%, 16 Votes)
Yes (32%, 10 Votes)
I don’t know (16%, 5 Votes)
Total Voters: 31

The commies in DC have done an exceptional job of dumbing down the public … that said … because of the increasing existential threat DC is becoming … droves of people are waking up now … and this will spill over into the markets as things unfold …

Looks like a great time to buy to me …

Chuckle

https://sdbullion.com/deals

It’s a giant can of worms and I guess only time will tell us if it was all worth it or not. Everything’s crossed!

almost $20 off the highs last night. Pretty strong reversal.

Dollar slowly sliding, 10 yr. now down 1 bip.

Can we reverse course today for a couple of days too?

Seriously profound and true statement. I’m pretty sure it’s where Trump finds himself very soon, if he hasn’t already had the realization. I suspect he’ll be asking the question, “but you guys told me we could get it done in 3-4 weeks”.

Hunter Stires
@HunterStires
Wisdom from Winston Churchill: “Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that any one who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”

https://x.com/HunterStires/status/2030834074470732226

Mentioned oil, was up 27% at one point last night, now up 11%.
The dollar is starting to soften, rates have come back to flat after being up nearly 5 bips.

SM slowly getting better.

Intervention or too much fear?

I have no idea, but what I do know is that last night in Shanghai they opened the am fix at $93. Apparently, that was a bit of a bargain because they closed the pm fix back above $96.
Wondering if this might be why silver isn’t down $3-4 right now on Crimex.

As Captain’s headline suggests, maybe retailers are panicking out while pro’s are calmly buying. You guys know I’m always the optimist. 🤔

Gold, while sucking, has still managed to hold the line at $5k during the tumult of war and sell offs. Can this continue?

Shares are in trouble as long as oil continues to rise IMHO. I see that the U.S. has actually thrown enough paper at oil to bring it down from the highs. Is it possible that we saw a blowoff top last night in the short term and oil got ahead of itself? I hope so.

I wonder how high the discount needs to be before this will happen?     ….10%?   ….15%?

—————————————————————

Clash Report
@clashreport
·
3h
BREAKING: U.S. Navy reportedly strikes three Iranian vessels, believed to be oil tankers, in the Persian Gulf.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2030966102541443347

Professionals Are Draining the COMEX Every Single Day While Retail Sells, Another Reason Why Silver Is Going Much Higher!

H/T KAREL MERCX FOR CHART

One of the most powerful signals in any market is a major divergence between the “smart money” and the retail crowd. Right now, we are witnessing one of the most profound divergences in the silver market in over a decade.

While professional, institutional buyers are quietly and relentlessly draining physical silver from the COMEX warehouses, retail investors are more bearish than ever, dumping silver-backed ETFs and driving the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) to a steep discount.

This is not just a minor anomaly; it is a glaring, flashing sign that the real, physical-driven silver bull market has only just begun.

The data is undeniable. Every single trading day, physical silver is leaving the COMEX. This isn’t paper trading; this is the settlement of futures contracts for physical delivery into professional hands.

Simultaneously, the premier vehicle for retail investors to own physical silver, PSLV, is trading at a significant discount to its net asset value. This tells us one thing with absolute clarity: the current bull market is not being driven by Western retail investors. And that is precisely what makes this setup so incredibly bullish.

You Need to Know:

• The Smart Money Is Taking Delivery: Professionals are systematically draining physical silver from the COMEX. As the above data shows, Registered (deliverable) silver inventories have been in a steep decline, a clear sign that large buyers are demanding physical metal, not cash settlement.
• Retail Is Asleep at the Wheel: The Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) is trading at a steep 5.7% discount to its net asset value. This is a direct, real-time measure of retail sentiment. It shows that retail investors are net sellers, not buyers, of physical silver.
• This Is the Opposite of 2011: The 2011 silver bull market peak was driven by a frenzy of Western retail buying. During that time, PSLV traded at a massive premium, averaging 17.3% for the full year as investors chased physical silver at any price.
• The “PSLV Kicker” A 23% Bonus: If this bull market sees the return of the Western investor, that 5.7% discount can flip to a 17.3% premium (or higher). This represents a potential 23% return on top of the move in the underlying silver price. It is a coiled spring waiting to be released.
• The Fundamentals Are Stronger Than Ever: The macro setup for silver today is vastly more bullish than in 2011. Unprecedented global debt, accelerating de-dollarization, a structural supply deficit, and a historic demand stack from the energy transition and A.I. make the case for a much higher silver price than the previous cycle.

What follows is a deep dive into the data behind this great divergence. I will break down the mechanics of the COMEX drain, the 2011 premium, and the powerful “PSLV Kicker” that could supercharge returns in the coming rally.

Let’s Dig Into The Following:

1. There is a great divergence in the data that needs to be understood. In just the last month, we have seen a significant drain, with tens of millions of ounces leaving the warehouse. This is not the action of weak-handed speculators; this is the footprint of sophisticated, well-capitalized buyers who want or need to hold physical metal. At the same time there is tremendous selling pressure within the fund. Why this divergence is key and is the exact opposite of a market top!
2. The ghost of 2011 when retail chased the silver market higher should be on every investors minds. To understand how powerful this divergence signal is, we need to look back at the last major silver bull market peak in 2011. That rally was characterized by a mania among Western retail investors. As the price of silver screamed higher, the public piled in, desperate to get exposure. The result was that PSLV, the most trusted vehicle for physical ownership, was bid up to a massive premium over its net asset value. For the full year of 2011, the average premium for PSLV was a staggering 17.3%, today it is currently -5%+.

   Why the next retail mania will not be a slow burn; it will be a flash fire, fueled by algorithms and amplified by a global network of influencers and meme-stock veterans!

3. There is a 23% potential alpha on the table. The current 5.7% discount in PSLV is not a permanent condition. It is a temporary reflection of sentiment. When sentiment turns; and in a bull market, it always does, that discount will close. As more investors seek the safety of physical silver, the buying pressure will erase the discount and, if history is any guide, transform it into a significant premium. Why this creates a unique opportunity for alpha that equates to a potential 23% return that would be captured in addition to the percentage gain in the underlying silver price!
4. The 6-year supply deficit keeps the pressure on. Beneath all of these powerful market signals lies a bedrock fundamental reality: the world is consuming more silver than it produces, and it has been doing so now for six consecutive years and the world’s accessible, above-ground stockpiles are being steadily depleted to meet the relentless demand from both industry and investors. Why even as the silver price moves higher, new supply will be slow to respond, ensuring that the deficit persists and likely worsens, providing a powerful, long-term tailwind for the price!
5. Then there is the byproduct mining constraint. Compounding the structural deficit is one of the most critical and least understood aspects of the silver market: the vast majority of silver is not mined on purpose. Approximately 70-80% of all newly mined silver is a byproduct of mining for other industrial metals, primarily copper, lead, and zinc, as well as gold. Why this means that the supply of silver is not primarily driven by the price of silver itself, but by the economics of mining for other metals and a higher silver price does not automatically incentivize one of these miners to increase production if the price of the main metal they are mining does not also justify the expansion!
6. And the macro environment suggests this bull market will be bigger that 2011. Unprecedented debt, de-dollarization, the industrial demand explosion and the structural supply deficit, plus other factors are swirling around like no other time in recent history. Why given this incredibly bullish macro backdrop, it is not unreasonable to assume that the coming retail mania in silver will be even more extreme than in 2011!

So, let’s dig in…

The Great Divergence In The Data

The spreadsheet image at the top of this article tells a fascinating story. On the left, you can see the daily decline in Registered Silver at the COMEX. This is the inventory that is fully available for delivery to settle a futures contract.

In just the last month, we have seen a significant drain, with tens of millions of ounces leaving the warehouse. This is not the action of weak-handed speculators; this is the footprint of sophisticated, well-capitalized buyers who want or need to hold physical metal.

On the far right of the spreadsheet, you see the column labeled “PSLV Percent Premium.” Notice how it is consistently negative, recently hitting a deep -5.7%. The Sprott Physical Silver Trust is a closed-end fund, meaning the number of shares is relatively fixed.

When there is more selling pressure than buying pressure from investors, the share price can and does fall below the actual value of the silver it holds per share. This discount is really a direct, unfiltered measure of retail investor apathy and bearishness. They are literally selling their claim on physical silver for less than it is worth.

This divergence is the key;

• The professionals are buying the physical.
• The retail crowd is selling the paper.

This is the exact opposite of a market top. It is the anatomy of a stealth bull market, accumulating power in the hands of the strongest players before the public even realizes what is happening.

The Ghost of 2011: When Retail Chased the Market Higher

To understand how powerful this signal is, we need to look back at the last major silver bull market peak in 2011. That rally was characterized by a mania among Western retail investors.

As the price of silver screamed higher, the public piled in, desperate to get exposure. The result was that PSLV, the most trusted vehicle for physical ownership, was bid up to a massive premium over its net asset value.

For the full year of 2011, the average premium for PSLV was a staggering 17.3%. At the peak of the frenzy, it was even higher. Investors were so desperate to own silver that they were willing to pay nearly 20% more than the spot price just to get a piece of the action through Sprott’s fully-allocated, deliverable trust. Here is the chart I showed earlier to highlight this.

That is what a retail-driven mania looks like. It is a tidal wave of fear-of-missing-out, a desperate, emotional chase for exposure at any price. It is a force of nature that can defy all logic and fundamentals for a time, driven by the most powerful motivator in all of finance: greed.

The current market is the polar opposite. It is quiet, rational, and professional. But the ghost of 2011 is a reminder of what happens when the retail herd finally awakens. That same irrational, emotional energy that created the 17.3% premium then will return, and when it does, it will be like pouring gasoline on an already-raging fire.

It is crucial to remember that the 2011 mania occurred in a world with far less social media penetration and a less-developed ecosystem for online investing. Today, narratives can spread across the globe in an instant, and new investors can be onboarded with a few clicks.

The next retail mania will not be a slow burn; it will be a flash fire, fueled by algorithms and amplified by a global network of influencers and meme-stock veterans.

The potential for an even more extreme, more volatile, and ultimately higher premium is very real.

The “PSLV Kicker”: A Potential 23% Alpha

The current 5.7% discount in PSLV is not a permanent condition. It is a temporary reflection of sentiment. When sentiment turns; and in a bull market, it always does, that discount will close.

As more investors seek the safety of physical silver, the buying pressure will erase the discount and, if history is any guide, transform it into a significant premium.

This creates a unique opportunity for alpha. An investor who buys PSLV today at a -5.7% discount is not just making a bet on the price of silver. They are also positioned for the sentiment to shift.

If this bull market simply sees PSLV return to its 2011 average premium of 17.3%, that represents a 23% swing (from -5.7% to +17.3%). This is a 23% return that would be captured in addition to the percentage gain in the underlying silver price.

It is a powerful kicker that you cannot get from buying a standard ETF or even physical coins (where you typically pay a premium upfront).

Think of it as a sentiment-arbitrage trade layered on top of a fundamental commodity trade. You are simultaneously betting that the price of silver will go up and that the sentiment surrounding silver will improve.

In a true bull market, these two forces feed on each other, creating a powerful virtuous cycle. Higher prices attract more positive sentiment, which in turn drives prices even higher.

The PSLV discount-to-premium swing is the purest expression of this sentiment cycle, and it offers a way to generate returns that are mathematically independent of the spot price itself.

The Six-Year Supply Deficit

Beneath all of these powerful market signals lies a bedrock fundamental reality: the world is consuming more silver than it produces, and it has been doing so now for six consecutive years.

This is not a forecast or a projection; it is a fact. This persistent structural deficit is the primary driver of the inventory drawdowns we are seeing at the COMEX and other exchanges around the world. The world’s accessible, above-ground stockpiles are being steadily depleted to meet the relentless demand from both industry and investors. Have a look at the Shanghai silver stockpiles.

A one-year deficit can be dismissed as an anomaly. A six-year deficit is a trend. It is a sign that the mining industry is simply not investing enough in exploration and development to keep pace with demand.

This is the direct consequence of the brutal, decade plus-long bear market that starved the sector of capital.

You cannot simply flip a switch and bring new silver mines online. It takes years, often a decade or much more, to permit, finance, and build a new mine. This means the supply side of the equation is incredibly inelastic.

Even as the silver price moves higher, new supply will be slow to respond, ensuring that the deficit persists and likely worsens, providing a powerful, long-term tailwind for the price.

The Byproduct Mining Constraint

Compounding the structural deficit is one of the most critical and least understood aspects of the silver market: the vast majority of silver is not mined on purpose. Approximately 70-80% of all newly mined silver is a byproduct of mining for other industrial metals, primarily copper, lead, and zinc, as well as gold.

This means that the supply of silver is not primarily driven by the price of silver itself, but by the economics of mining for other metals. A higher silver price does not automatically incentivize a copper miner, for example, to increase production if the copper price does not also justify the expansion.

This creates a profound and dangerous inelasticity on the supply side. Even as the world screams for more silver to meet the demands of the energy transition, military and grid modernization, and the A.I. boom, the miners who produce most of it are not responding to the silver price signal.

They are responding to the price signals of their primary metals. And right now, the major base metal miners are not about to experience a mining explosion anytime soon, despite the obvious need for it.

They are still scarred by the last cyclical downturn and are focused on returning capital to shareholders, not on building massive new mines. This all but guarantees that the silver supply will remain constrained, regardless of how high the price goes in the short to medium term, tightening the physical market to a breaking point.

Why This Bull Market Will Be Bigger Than 2011

As compelling as the PSLV discount-to-premium story is, it is simply the accelerant on an already raging fire. The fundamental, macro case for silver today is stronger than it has ever been, and dwarfs the setup from 2011.

• Unprecedented Debt: Global debt levels have exploded since 2011, creating a powerful tailwind for all hard assets as fiat currencies are systematically devalued.
• De-Dollarization: The weaponization of the U.S. dollar has accelerated a global move away from the dollar as the sole reserve currency. This structural shift benefits monetary metals like gold and silver.
• Industrial Demand Explosion: Silver is indispensable for the energy transition (solar panels) and the A.I. revolution (semiconductors, data centers).

  This is a massive, non-negotiable, and price-inelastic source of demand that simply did not exist on this scale in 2011.

• Structural Supply Deficit: For the past several years, the world has been consuming more silver than it produces. This structural deficit is drawing down global above ground inventories and creating a tight physical market that is vulnerable to a price shock.

Given this incredibly bullish macro backdrop, it is not unreasonable to assume that the coming retail mania in silver will be even more extreme than in 2011. This implies that the PSLV premium could surge well past the 17.3% average seen in the last cycle, providing an even larger “kicker” for today’s investors.

The Smart Money Is Absorbing The Metal

The silver market today is a coiled spring. The smart money is absorbing all the physical metal it can, while the retail investor, scarred by a decade-long bear market, is still selling.

This is a classic, textbook contrarian setup. The divergence between professional accumulation and retail apathy is the fuel for the next explosive move higher.

Buying PSLV at a discount is a great way to play it, offering leveraged exposure to both the inevitable rise in the silver price and the equally inevitable return of the retail investor. The opportunity is staring us right in the face, clear as day in the data. The only question is who is paying attention.

Thanks for the detailed explanation, yeoman’s effort.

To summarize (correct me if wrong):

All the conventional surgeons had (still have) the same technique for a skull based tumour.
Charlie does keyhole surgery. Trained under Ossama Al-Mefty

From your description, implementing the newer procedure entails a great deal of training (and perhaps skill), which conventional doctors are reluctant to undergo.

A while back I counted current action as a possible C wave down …I still think that is the case , hence we are going sideways to down action…..

Oil has broken up from a large bull flag…..here we see the possible targets for wave 3/C.

Same here. Have never seen PMs perform during war, crisis, or turmoil.
Which I thought was one of the reasons to buy them — insurance against uncertainty. Still doesn’t make sense to me. Insanity — every time, I think surely they will perform this time. Nope. Never

Santa Fe all the way
https://www.railpictures.net/photo/894321/

I sure can’t explain it. PM’s have NEVER done well during war and crisis, at least not in the 25 years I’ve been watching this stuff. They’ve always sucked right along with everything else, although it does look like Bitcoin is now a flight to safety, it’s reversed and is up 2% tonight.

Pretty frustrating to watch again. Oil up $25 now. I thought they were going to help control the oil market using futures? Doesn’t appear to be working so far. 🤣

Ps I’m not well right now. Getting somewhat better but taking a pause. Not up to war stress either. I’m not reading much and didn’t see that video.  I do have to say though not all retired military are automatic good guys. I was kidnapped at 18 by one. It took me about a hour to escape and very hard to except after his 3 tours and 8 purple hearts hard to kill lol I didn’t call the police cuz I felt sorry for him thinking it was the war that did it to him. I didn’t even know him and he said we’re going to get married. . To make it worse a high school friend nice guy came by to ask me a few nights later when I’m coming to the party. I said what party. He said my engagement party. The guy had a party announcing our engagement. Silent no more due to being naive I guess plus escaping with minor injuries by outsmarting him I told him the guy is nuts and told him what happened. Very soon after he was evicted from the apts I was living and a fight broke out at his job after he was questioned and didn’t deny it and then some fight and was fired. Even some time after I was still cautious around any corner and more than normal of my surroundings not sure if he was really gone or not.

I’m sure this Dave is fine but just sayin.

Not Stepping into WWIII, Peace Coming – Bo Polny

I hope so.

I wonder if they realize that computers and robots don’t pay taxes. Will it fall on businesses or consumer.

Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz says not only can AI take your job, it’ll make the ‘tech bro’ class richer while doing so https://share.google/PB7FrChgi9WAmrJOv

Everything is good.