23:55 That explains why gold seems to be doing better than silver right now.
Silver is going to be making a spring board for post election provided the Fed doesn’t lay the hammer down.
Not to throw caution to the wind from the invisible forces but except the Fed sounds pretty bullish Does Xau and Hui go up during midterms?
| Index / Asset | Performance Trend During Midterm Election Years |
|---|---|
| HUI Index (NYSE Arca Gold Bugs) | Strongest year of the cycle. Highly reactive to rising political uncertainty and market volatility. |
| XAU Index (Philadelphia Gold & Silver) | Upward trend, but historically behaves as a precursor to even stronger gains in the following post-election year. |
| Gold Bullion | Strongest year of the cycle, averaging an 11% to 12.5% return since 1968, heavily driven by an upward rally that begins in July. |
| S&P 500 / General Equities | Muted or negative through the first 3 quarters due to policy uncertainty, followed by a sharp post-election rally. |
buygold
We had one in Dec 24 to May 25……the ratio ran to Feb 26….. Hui more than doubled
Maddog
I like that “w” pattern on the GDX/GLD chart. Looks like you may be on to something there.
Buy/sell signal in relationship of 50 day and 200 day av’s
When the 50 day dips below the 200 day, for only a short while and then climbs back above, especially when the 200 is already climbing, can be a very strong buy signal, that can last for months. When the reverse happens u get sell signals
Here the Hui/Au relationship has done just that…for a buy signal
Maddog
Good charts and good thinking thanks.
Hui to spank AI !!!!!!!
the ratio has formed a large base on top of the previous low back in 2000….the base say we can easily rally back to the 0.16 area, currently @ 0.28 which is 6 times current values …..if we get back to the highs, then says the ratio goes up @ 10 times from here.
Meanwhile the Hui/SPX chart shows PM shares as the place to be relative to the SPX, for the next few years or more
A clear break of the top line, with a point perfect back test……one for the records in perfection so far.
Oh so close…..
Depending on how u draw the line or as they said in ancient times, depending on how thick your pencil was , we have yet to really break out in the GDX/GLD ratio….which explains why the shares still seem sluggish, relative to any PM rally, we are still not seeing the multiples of any PM rally in the shares and the Algo shorts are still happy…ie this rally is just another opportunity to add.
Though GDX.Au does now suggest the break out is real
Wheras Hui/AU, has broken and backtested the trend line …which says we should soon be running.
Yield Curve I found this interesting.
Were hearing a lot about possible recession coming. 12 to 18 months after the un- inversion time line to late 26 to mid 27.
I found this.
-
- Average Lag: Historical studies tracking the normalization (steepening) of the curve show that downturns typically begin within 7 months of the un-inversion. [1]
- Range: The time gap between the curve turning positive again and the start of a recession has historically ranged from as short as 2 months (such as prior to the 2001 recession) to as long as 14 months (before the 1990 downturn). [1]
- Initial Inversion vs. Reversion: While market watchers often cite a 12 to 15 month average lag measured from the start of the original inversion, looking at the subsequent un-inversion often signals a tighter window for near-term economic stress.
Further I found with the S&P can remain profitable at first slowing during later months in one year and a down turn in another.
- 3 Months Later: +4.9% average return. The index has historically been positive in 80% of studied cycles during this immediate 90-day window, demonstrating a brief “last gasp” or relief rally.
- 6 Months Later: +2.2% average return. Momentum begins to stall significantly as macro pressures mount.
- The Recession Lag: Historically, a recession begins an average of 7 months after the yield curve un-inverts.
- Historical Extremes: Performance can vary wildly depending on whether the economy achieves a “soft landing” or enters a severe crisis. For example, the S&P 500 posted a massive +23.1% 12-month gain following the 1980 un-inversion cycle, but suffered a steep -17.3% drop over the 12 months following the 2001 un-inversion as the dot-com bubble unraveled. [1, 2]
5:55
Yahoo Finance
5:02
Catherine A F
More insight of the stable coins. First part explains what they’re up to and it’s no good in a callous way like how they profit over pandemics and about 8:50 minutes near the end how stable coins surveillance can nose itself into private accounts. Those in other countries should see this, it could affect them too.
aufever @ 18:29
Just an aside, that fellow has a lot of Mexican operations. I like to try and limit my exposure there. Probably just paranoid …
What is the exact window for the next US recession — and why are multiple economic indicators pointing toward 2027–2028?
I also learned though this guy who might know because he’s from there, China has and can sell AI thats a lot cheaper to make and sell than the ones the US.
Our concern is what are they going to use it for and the amount of energy they will eventually use that surpassed community human needs including hospitals and frozen food storage. That’s not counting water to cool them. And that’s what leading the market.
ipso
I also thank you for that posting that article.
Some things to consider
Ipso Deer
This is a metals site so of course we’re going to share info. At the same time most of us by are in another time zone than the young who have a longer time to wait although I’d Argue why should they have to wait for everybody else doing what they do because they’re expected to lose like they did combined with thinking they know better when they let something like that happen apparently they don’t. It’s more like misery spreads misery that could of been avoided.
At the same time because pretty much everybody else that’s in the market for years and including AI is expecting a crash between. 27 and 28. To keep that in mind when chosing stocks at this point along with the memory of these miners who hold debt or non producers dependent on loans, funding or someone buying their finds like Dolly like explorers. Because in 08 and even before they took all their money in these mines no longer trading. Also during A crash if it’s going to put someone in a situation they would have to sell either phyzz or stocks because loss income wind up selling for a loss. Also remember trying to sell when the crash hits. We might see a bull market ahead but it might come with a drop zone first.
deer79
You bet! That guys owns a lot of different ones!
Florida
The droughts have ended? At least when daughter and the guys drove to Orlando for universal. They didn’t go one day because of the lightening. Another day they went the coaster side had to close for awhile because of the lightening so the went to the other side and were soaked by the time they got there but had change of cloths in thr car. I guess is multi parks now from the two sides when I took her when she was a kid in 2000. There over in the fort Meyers or something area now. Had to remind them of tile change when they call at 4:40 am Calif time.
Ipso
Thanks for sharing! Always good to have some new ideas…..
One guy’s rankings
Brian Wilkes
@BrianGoodner
Updated Silver miner rankings after I have done more extensive analysis comparing miners. After more research and looking at some more companies I will update with more comments.
Keep in mind, this is based on my risk profile, what kind of upside I want, etc. One could easily say Hecla, Couer, Pan American and First Majestic are the best ones to own (and for me, I own them all, but they have less upside..and less torque when Silver goes up).
Endeavor Silver (huge upside, moderate risk producer)
Aya Gold & Silver (huge upside lower risk producer)
Santacruz Silver (huge upside, moderate risk producer)
Avino Gold & Silver (huge upside, lower risk producer)
Viszla Silver (huge upside, moderately high risk late stage developer – production first half 2027)
– these next 3 are very close depending on what you are looking for
Discovery (considerable upside, huge Silver deposit they are developing and bought a producing Gold mine (Porcupine) from Newmont to help with financial position, moderate risk)
Silvercorp Metals (nice upside, but not as much as above lower risk producer, nice financial position)
America’s Gold & Silver (nice upside, though not as much as top 5, moderate risk producer)
Hycroft (enormous upside, but very volatile, very leveraged to Silver price even though they will be more of a Gold producer, 51 year mine life, but still early in development so that presents some risks. If you’ve owned this stock and watch the price action, it can really move, but it is volatile and has already gone up a lot).. in some ways, even though the project is in Nevada, I feel this is a risky play, and it’s not near producing at all. But I wouldn’t fault people for putting it anywhere in the rankings.)
Hecla – I used to have First Majestic higher but after my recent updated analysis I have to put this one spot higher. It’s just a low risk huge Silver producer. First Majestic is higher risk due to location.
First Majestic – I place this and Hecla higher than Couer and Pan American simply because I am more interested in Silver and those two are primarily Gold mines with about 30% Silver. Hecla and First Majestic are primarily Silver mines
Highlander (This will probably move up above Hecla, First Majestic and possibly Hycroft but I just started looking at it and did my first detailed analysis…but huge deposit, considerable upside, high Silver leverage)
Silverco – (This is a new add, so I may move it around the more I look at it, but I like it. Enormous upside. Restarting Cusi Silver mine in Mexico, starting production, ramping up in 27, relatively low historical AISC (in the mid $20 range. One big plus is it has huge insider backing. 38% by founders and 18% by Eric Sprott, I would normally say it is higher risk, but it’s more moderately high given it’s a restart and the huge insiders)
Guanajuato is one I think would be firmly in the top 10 if they didn’t have their recent high AISC in their results, but at the same time I understand their strategy of using Capex now to become more efficient and bring down the cost later as they incorporate the new mine purchased from Endeavor. Might as well get things running as cost efficient as possible while the Silver price is likely a lot lower than it will be a year from now.
My guess is that within 6 months, this jumps back up into the top 10, probably 7 or 8.
The next two that I would say I like, and much of the reason is because of their stock performance, is New Pacific Metals and Silver Storm. I need to analyze them both a little more closely to decide if they make top 15 for me. Same goes with Silver X and Silver One Resources.
And then I do have pretty good sized positions (for me) in Southern Silver and Honey Badger but Honey Badger is very high risk (though it does have backing by Eric Sprott and Rick Rule)..it’s a small market cap though so it can get kicked around in price. Southern Silver I had to buy because I think TheApeofGoldStreet knows his stuff, but I don’t personally have as high as conviction. I will say the price seems to move. But it’s an early developer and it does have decent upside, but at the same time they are looking for a JV deal, or possibly will get bought out, so that cools off the excitement a bit on that one.
My other holdings, in order of size are Blackrock, Silver Tiger, Silver Mountain, GoGold, Andean Silver, Kuya, Impact, Excellon.
I will likely pick back up GR Silver next, and then Apollo and Outcrop. I do also like Chesapeake and Skeena but they are only about 30% Silver, Chesapeake is years from production, but they do have enormous upside. Skeena is a little different. They are a junior near term producers which I like but they also don’t have near the upside of most all in my list except for Hecla and First Majestic. Their upside is not at the multiples I am looking for. And their stock price is near it’s high I believe. This obviously means it’s a strong company and probably a good core holding especially if you like Gold, given it’s 70% Gold.
I had dropped all those because I needed to rotate some funds, being fully allocated, and GR, Apollo, Outcrop, Aftermath and Chesapeake will not be in production until the 2030s (GR maybe more like 2029).
Well I think that’s all my miner analysis and work for the week. Feels like it was a lot. Have a great weekend everyone and after Labor Day volume should pick up on the markets which should help the Comex especially where Silver trading is thin, giving the banksters an easier time with manipulating it. Hopefully Silver and Gold start moving this month. I think it’s going to happen. Those call options from big money for Silver in October and Gold in December I think may be hinting at something….that someone in the know is positioning early.
Maya
You can see it much better in real time here. I’m watching both. The other one gonna miss California but probably shut down the coastal cruises to Mexico Riviera.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=7.6,-155.6,4.13z
It’s gonna be close… Hurricane Lowell approaches Kauai
They are going to get some wind and rain, but hopefully damage will be minimal. A lot depends upon how much forecast ‘wiggle’ there is to this turn.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp4+shtml/060232.shtml?cone#contents
Even on the East side of the Big Island where I am we will get a lot of rain Sunday from fringing effects of Karina passing to the north. It’s warm & humid… “hurricane breath” weather.