Neil Ringdahl
@NeilRingdahl
·
Oct 9
Its perhaps a little bit utopian, but here is my general (retail) investment strategy:
I am metals focused. I do not hold a diversified portfolio, b/c I do not want to dilute performance with average stocks I probably do not understand.
This is therefore, obviously, a higher risk strategy.
I am bullish PM & base metals over the next 10-15 yrs, which is my current expected timeframe; while its exciting to see metal price action the last 18 months, I have lived & worked a brutal 30years of painful market downturns with a few, short-lived upturns. So this “dampens” all my investment decisions which therefore have to be into Co’s I believe could survive any downturn or crash. I prefer to avoid day/week/month trading on trends, but admit I have have been trapped by this a couple of times. That aside I have been most successful holding a stock over a few years rather than weeks/months sometimes through -40% downturns. Good businesses recover from these, bad ones do not.
With this in mind I look for solid Co’s which still show cash flow when modeling -35% metal prices. AIC & AISC per unit metal produced is important to me. I avoid Co’s that have royalties & streams on the assets as much as possible b/c this REALLY RUINS Co. ECONOMICS & retail value & often steals the security of the assets from the SH’s too.
Then- KISS- Keep it simple stupid:
Simple, relatively easy to mine & process –> Must, surely, therefore make cash easily.
If the team is good & the AIC is low & there is CF or near term CF & there is a clear path out of any debt, then I look deeper into the asset and try to decide what the resource or future expanded throughput might look like.
On the basis of the above I will then consider buying a stock.
$MARI.TO
&
$RIO.TO
both potentially meet the above requirements, but are on development phase of the L curve, therefore should have a better delta over & above another Co. operating at steady state which normally are at full value and provide DIV’s as a mans to dropping my acquisition cost. But they also have to have no community issues (fatal flaws) and no government permitting dramas (fatal flaws).
I will v. likely not exit at 1st production & hold these stocks LT through commissioning into steady state ops to enjoy the CF, unless they start doing more acquisitions. Then I will usually look for a time to sell.
When do I sell? When I am frustrated by the lack of SP performance against whatever applicable metal price.
I average down a little in big downturns if I have the time & opportunity. I average up in big upturns if I have time.
I don’t check in on my stocks daily, b/c I have a pretty demanding day job & I am not interested in short term delta.
Otherwise I usually sell when I need cash or want to rotate into a fresh story. But my aim is to HODL long term as a hedge to FIAT and will sell out probably 50% in the next 10-15 yrs if things go well in that period.
My dream stock is one like
$CMCL
which -if I hold long enough- should pay me a decent % of my acquisition cost from dividends. I view it as a store of value for me rather than an investment to make money on, until I think it is not this.
I try to “make real money” by operating (my own) mining assets in the private space.
Good question
@lachl11733
, thank you. 🙂
https://x.com/NeilRingdahl/status/2108659225073180982
