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Clip (with comments) from last night’s leMet

Posted by Scruffy @ 8:58 on July 26, 2014  

So where is the US recovery going? There is little sign of it in the latest economic forecast from the IMF which has just slashed its 2014 estimate for GDP growth by 1.1 per cent to just 1.7 per cent.  (My comment: this is of course complete and total bullshit! With real inflation running in excess of 4% the fabricated 1.7% is an actual – 2.3% and that is based in part by the lies that are used to keep MOPE headed in the right direction!)

That’s a reflection of the inconvenient truth that the US economy actually contracted by 2.9 per cent in the first quarter. We will get the first advanced estimate for Q2 on July 30th unless the timetable slips again. (My comment: Why bother? The guestimate is late because it is harder and harder to create the lies without sounding totally ridiculous. The only things growing are govt debt, lies, and political bullshit. Now if I could just by options on political bullshit!)

Market melt-up

IMF officials say they are watching financial markets closely as the disconnect between the summer melt-up in the stock markets and the reality of a very weak global and US economy are obvious enough.

The UK emerged as the surprise rising star of the IMF forecasts with its GDP projection for 2014 revised upwards to 3.4 per cent. Spot the economy with an election coming up next year. Germany’s growth was also upgraded to 1.9 per cent, slightly ahead of the US.

But overall the world economy is now expected to grow by 3.4 rather than 3.7 per cent as high levels of debt continue to weigh it down. The UAE is upgraded to 4.7 per cent growth this year.

The main downside risk to these IMF projections is ‘an oil price spike … due to recent developments in the Middle East and Ukraine.’

Getting it right

ArabianMoney has been pointing out the weakness of the US recovery for some months and the nonsense talked on Wall Street about the recovery gathering strength. There is a strong possibility in our view that the final figures will show the US in recession right now (click here).

New US home sales figures for May were yesterday revised down to 442,000 units from the previously reported 504,000 units – the largest downward revision in history. Last month’s jobs data was highly misleading as we have previously noted due to an increase in part-time employment, with the loss of 523,000 full-time jobs actually the worst performance in 20 years (click here).

The IMF is only catching up with reality in its latest dramatic forecast downgrade for the US this year. It won’t be the last.


Posted on 25 July 2014


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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.