OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Then on Oct 1 the Fed won’t need to prop up anymore and they will declare their counterfeiting operations a SUCCESS …That will justify their paychecks and be their reason for continuing their reign of terror on the people of the US.THe voters will tro da bums out…  and everybody can claim victory .Its all written in the “tea leaves ”  or “Tea Party” what ever you want to call it .If you got an Obama edumacation and cant read .Just look at this picture er ..chart ..Its all there if you know how to read it….

Probably some of that ISIS oil coming to market. THE OIL MUST FLOW

Well you know that’s not in my nature! 🙂

I want someone to tell me why oil is falling. Strong USD? I don’t get it!

You are such an optimist! 🙂

Having a decent day on decent volume. No idea why, but good to see.

We aren’t finished just yet. Still could have a strong last hour.  Never know.

Cheers to ye Olde Dutch. Sounds like a good dark beer. 🙂

What was DUTCH has now become  OldeDutch, Want to be correct so I can agree with Mr. Copper, as we come up with the same opinions, he just gets them posted before I do, so I must be older………OD

Ole Remus makes a lot of sense. Not happy reading … but the truth.

We ain’t no scaredy cats

re part:
GAO said the administration kept changing marching orders for contractors who built the computerized sign-up system, creating widespread confusion and leading to tens of millions of dollars in additional costs.

Comment:
Tens of millions of dollars in additional costs means the economy gets tens of millions of dollars in additional money supply for businesses and people. Its never an accident. Even the IRS looks the other way with tax fraud. TPTB even looked the other way with Bernie Maddoff. The no doc liar loans were no accident either.

TPTB need money to enter the system, any way possible.

.

The coming unpleasantness

The guilty are sneaking away unpunished, nobody’s fixing anything, there’s an orderly-so-far devaluation of the dollar going on, the Treasury has fallen into the hands of counterfeiters and the election process has gone third-world. The home folks are broke, or nearly so, and unemployed, or about to be. Suddenly they understand DC isn’t on their side and now they’re debating whether DC is run by the criminally insane or the merely criminal. Oh yeah, this will end well.

According to a new study by the Russell Sage Foundation, the inflation-adjusted net worth for the typical household was $87,992 in 2003. Ten years later, it was only $56,335, or a 36% decline… it’s not merely an issue of the rich getting richer. The typical American household has been getting poorer, too.
Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com

Now the people who warned of 2008 are saying the market is running out of Greater Fools. They say few retail investors are in equities that don’t have to be—meaning the funds, the 401ks and IRAs, the insurance companies, the compulsive gamblers. And those that don’t hate the market fear the market. They say it’s a gas leak looking for detonation. They say the event will arrive before the warning does.

There are usually no warnings that trouble is coming because everyone at the top of the financial food chain are highly incentivized to keep quiet about problems… Just about every CEO from every major bank spent much of 2008 claiming that all was well… As former banker Jean-Claude Juncker put it, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
Phoenix Capital Research at zerohedge.com

In early 2008 I noted a fairly serious decrease in online “revenue per impression” in the advertising space. This was not reflected in so-called “official” reports from various online ad firms, but I saw it quite-clearly across data I had available to me. What followed, of course, was quite clear in the markets. I am seeing the same pattern develop now.
Karl Denninger at market-ticker.org

Due diligence and fundamentals count for nothing because the arithmetic makes no sense, successful investing amounts to insider information and front running the Fed. The oscillations are wild and coming closer together. But still it goes up. One day it won’t. The crash will be 2008 on afterburner because no one trusts anybody, no one honors anything, no one believes anything. The flash-crash will look stately by comparison. It’ll be like being pushed out of a tree in the dark—pain and terror every inch of the way.

Another horrific stock market crash is coming, and the next bust will be “unlike any other” we have seen. We have never had this before. It’s going to be very painful for investors.
Jeremy Grantham, GMO, via moneynews.com

Warren Buffett’s “best single measure of where valuations stand,” comparing the market value of US companies to the gross national product before inflation, is flashing near record bubble red. Still we are sure, you’ll be able to exit before everyone else when this ends.
Tyler Durden and Bloomberg at zerohedge.com

The most reliable valuation measures have never been higher except in the advance to the 2000 peak (and for some measures the 1929 and 2007 peaks), but they have started to treat these prior pre-crash peaks as objectives to be attained… Make no mistake—this is an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one. On the most historically reliable measures, it is easily beyond 1972 and 1987, beyond 1929 and 2007, and is now within about 15% of the 2000 extreme.
John Hussman at hussmanfunds.com

We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash.
Mark Spitznagel via moneynews.com

The market isn’t the economy, true enough, but a couple dozen trillion dollars isn’t exactly budget-dust. The citizenry would see a yawning crater where their 401ks and IRAs used to be. They’d notice when their checking account is gone but their debt isn’t, and when the ATM doesn’t recognize their account number, or when their bank is an empty storefront and their car loan has been sold to Vinnie, or when their insurance company doesn’t answer the phone. As always, people don’t go nuclear until reality invites itself into their living room and defecates on the carpet. That’s when things get interesting—when people notice, when they have to face what was formerly unthinkable and their only fallback is what good people they are.

Those who drove the financial bus off a cliff know the controls still work fine—the brakes and accelerator and steering wheel, all of ’em, but when the rubber isn’t on the road the effect just ain’t the same. But all that “driving” stuff keeps the passengers from panicking. We’ve seen the grandest larceny in all history. Now, after we’ve been cleaned out, we know the wacko conspiracy guys were right. In fact we’re worse than cleaned out, the place has been turned into a debtor’s prison from sea to shining sea.

Some would have us believe things are turning around—the market’s up and the trend is your friend. Trend? Trend?! The market made gains after the Crash of 1929 too, genuine record recoveries. “Prosperity is just around the corner” referred to those 1930-1931 upticks, not to the unstoppable plunge that followed. As they say, it’s not the fall, it’s the sudden stop. The fall itself can be surprisingly profitable. But what a fall it was. By July of 1932 the Dow had dropped from its high of 367 down to 41. Ten years later, in April of 1942, it touched 100 or so, and that was after foreign panic-money poured in from a Europe at war. The highs of 1929 weren’t seen again until the 1950s. That’s a trend.

There’s always been fraud, but sometime in the recent past the market buckled in a fundamental way and the fraud poured in. Proven reforms painfully enacted over decades were swept away. Fundamentals no longer counted. Creative finance counted. Bubbles and deceit counted. It became a criminal enterprise top to bottom. Accounting firms and regulatory agencies went over to the dark side en masse. As Mark Twain said, every profession is a conspiracy against the common man. Finally the retail investor did something sensible—he ran for his life.

The players left are those who have to stay; the funds, the retirement accounts, the insurance companies, et al, and HFT piranhas are eating them alive at millions of tiny nibbles a second. What used to be an investor’s clearing house has become a betting parlor on the Federal Reserve’s next move. The market goes up on tiny volume and bad news, and way up on very bad news and nearly no volume. They know dark horizons light up the printing presses. Meanwhile, the banks don’t know what they own, or don’t know what it’s worth, but they do know they’re insolvent and so does everybody else. So DC gives money to the banks and then pays the banks to lend it back to them. It’s IOUs paid with IOUs and they can’t write ’em fast enough.

The bottoming is not completely done. In fact, it has barely even gotten underway yet. We keep propping up losers. The result is we still need to see a repudiation of debt at a massive scale and until that happens, the Long Wave bottom won’t be here. We’re just dancing on the front end of real economic collapse.
George Ure at urbansurvival.com

What to do. The demand for collateral will be ferocious when the debacle starts. Treat debt like any other roadside bomb. Staying current isn’t enough. Any collaterized debt is too much debt. You can’t know which exit is the last exit. The grace period with the trillion-dollar price tag is ending and it’s ending badly. This disaster has been bought off for decades. When it happens it’ll go down fast. Exactly how and when can be sorta-kinda foreseen but not actually known. A cascade can start from anywhere. But this much can be said: the collateral chaos will hit the system like a weapons-grade laxative. Everything that’s been contained, covered up and denied will come spewing out looking for daddy. It’ll take weeks, not months to come apart. Maybe days.

Get as independent as you can while you can. There are parts of this game where the only winning move is to not play. Doesn’t mean you have to go all Rambo and head off to some mountain valley, although that’s one way. But it does mean putting stuff by so you can get by. “Stuff” means food stored long-term and the wherewithal to get or grow more, uninterruptible for-sure potable water, an off-the-grid heating system, meds and medical supplies, clothing for hard times and hard work and being out in life-threatening weather because you have to be, the means to defend hearth and hoard, batteries and a way to recharge them, cash and real money—meaning gold and silver—all the things you already know but haven’t done. Knowing isn’t doing, doing is doing.

FDR‘s bailout of the Federal government also went so far as to also issue Executive Order 6814 “Requiring the delivery of all silver to the United States for coinage.” And what was that worth at the time? In terms of present dollars, that works out to about $22.77 per ounce. Given that silver is trading below current dollar equivalents of the Depression confiscation prices and gold is still trading at 3.44-times Depression confiscation prices, my personal bias may be inferred.
George Ure at peoplenomics.com

Plan B. If you’re in a city, have a viable destination and two or three tried and proven ways to get there. Practice and take notes. Again, only doing is doing. Plan as if your life depends on it. Take a hike, go the hard way through the hills and woods, you’ll discover how long an unpaved mile can be. Make a squirrel dinner, yes they’re cute, but there may come a day when only one of you is going to live. Besides, they’re yummy. Mankind acquired these tastes over geological epochs, you’ve not lost them, merely misplaced them.

Everything seems obvious and predictable in retrospect. This stuff is pretty obvious and predictable now. And there are always better reasons to not do something than to do it. You know most people won’t get serious until after it was absolutely necessary. Too late. They’ll fail, mostly. Worse, they’ll needlessly fail at the easy part of the learning curve. Prepared is prepared, you are or you aren’t. Do what you can. And as always, stay away from crowds.

http://www.woodpilereport.com/html/index-380.htm

@ Wanka…good afternoon, happy to see that Vito did the job      Wagons ho!

In the world of YIN and Yang there are always stocks that are antithesis of Good investments.Such a stock is FMNJ it always shows up as the evil twin .You know its going to be a bad day when that stock is up ….Its a hole in the Ground owned by a liar ! up 150 % today ! Do not ever consider it…I have been watching it for several years ,its always anti ..no matter what ! hehe… promoted by a Gang from NJ   no less…What else !

yeah, seems to be operating pretty well now. It’s keeping me logged in when I navigate away which is nice. I had to change my favorites link to get on this am because the old link was giving me  “website not found” page from Cable One.

Working great right now though.

Its as simple as that. Its being used like a global gov’t, to redistribute wealth, like a global taxing authority. China got wealthy with the dollar exchange rate and the USA living standards went down.

Japan and Europe benefitted also. Many other countries like Saudi Arabia too. The dollars or wealth go over there to a few big sheiks instead of employees in Texas and Oklahoma for example.

China employees make all the Sony TV sets now instead of Americans. The Japs made all the TVs before the Chinese did. The global bankers, as if they were farmers, are “watering” various parts of the world, as needed, with wealth producing industries.

My view is they started watering the USA after the ’08 meltdown. You could even say they started in 2001 when they stopped the dollar at the 120 highs. Getting oil and metals higher is GOOD for the USA. Not bad as most would think.

Americans lived a lot better when THINGS more expensive with more profit margin, that paid higher taxes and wages. No gov’t budget deficits, less borrowing etc. Nobody even needed credit cards or medical insurance the wages were so HIGH.

5 min Video:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/q2-is-the-best-economic-growth-we-ll-have-all-year–peter-schiff-123736174.html

I didn’t think it was a bad read either, just would’ve been a better read if he’d have kept his personal leanings out of it and recognized that this is not a left/right issue.

I always like reading articles about the scum. 🙂

but the shares look pretty ugly. Bizzare that they’re selling off so much after the recent strength.

It was interesting from the standpoint of The Rothschilds, oligarch inbreds.

But the writer was a total left winger, especially slamming FOX, Repubs, but worse The Tea Party.

I’d say it’s probably pretty impossible to have $100 trillion in wealth and not have your hands in everyone’s pockets.

I’m a little surprised you took an interest in that article. Especially since it seems to have been written by a total libtard.

” The well-paid corporate lackey leadership of the Republican Party pushes this anti-government agenda, while the idiocracy misnomer known as the Tea Party takes this monarchist argument to its fascist extreme.”

So Repubs = bad, Dems like Carl Levin mentioned later in the article = Good

How about bad and bad?

Do you see anything that portends a crash is on the way? It almost seems the SM is on a computer driven auto-pilot. No way it crashes unless the boyz want it too.

It’s a big event anymore if the SM corrects 1%

There are a million fundamental reasons why it could but everything seems pretty dialed in.

Well that didn’t last long…

Desk chatter of large institutional selling and concerns over a forthcoming G7 statement on Russia are being blamed for now…

Chart … http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140730_oops_0.jpg

Days away from the Seasonal Swoon Period for Stocks…

The seasonal “danger zone” for the stock market is August to mid-November so as we close out the month of July, I thought it fitting today to focus more on the current stock market bubble rather than the Gold and Gold Miners.

I was talking to my friend and newsletter whiz-kid Dave Skarica (Addicted to Profits ) last weekend and he reminded me of one of the greatest market calls in history (which I actually watched on October 16th, 1987 during the roundtable discussion on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser) by the late Martin Zweig. I met Marty in 1986 at the Securities Industry Association Commencement Dinner at the Wanamaker’s Tearoom in Philadelphia and determined that he was undoubtedly the most down-to-earth financial “guru” in the history of Wall Street AND he had a great sense of humour. The clip ( Market Crash Call by Martin Zweig ) around the 6 minute mark is now legendary. What was really great was how Mary Meeker completely refuted Zweig’s call for a crash stating that “Fundamentals are too good for a crash…” only to get annihilated on the following Monday. Zweig used portfolio insurance and put 1% of his portfolio into OEX put options on Friday October 16th which went from $2.35 to over $140 allowing his portfolio to actually rise 9% during the famous October ’87 Crash.

David has just published his new book “Collapse!: How the Federal Reserve Created Another Stock Market Bubble and Why it Will Collapse” where he outlines the myriad of reasons that this market is ready for a downturn and it is an excellent read. The rationale laid out by David is the reason that I have been quite timid about re-entering the Gold Miners. I am certainly bullish on zinc and silver (physical) but since the producers, developers, and explorers of those metals are still stocks, I am concerned that any upward move based upon the positive seasonality for gold and silver will be offset by a broad market correction.

As for today, I have added to the SLV October $18 calls @ $1.95 as well as the SLV ETF @ $19.75. I won’t touch the miners until this week is over and all of the FOMC propaganda is behind us. I continue to look at the VIX and urge you all to read this comment by Blackrock on volatility (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-26/blackrock-recommends-buying-volatility-while-pimco-sells.html ) as portfolio insurance is more maligned today than at any point in the past decade.

Last point: An astute client asked me if he should liquidate his juniors exploration holdings for fear that they might “correct” in an S&P selloff. My response was “Correct what?” They have not participated in the 2014 gold rally to any extent worth noting so there is nothing to “correct”. They certainly weren’t lifted by the rising stock tide of the past three years so there is little (if any) profit to protect. My strategy is to overweight the physical silver market and to protect the portfolio with VIX and SDS call options while holding 50% positions in the GDX and GDXJ and sitting pat with TK and SRC.

By being partially short (as was Martin Zweig in 1987), we are hedged against the advent of the seasonal swoon and with the help of regular church attendance and rabbit’s feet, we shall (hopefully) endure…

MJB