“I fear a crash. The reason I fear a crash is that when you have a market that goes up relentlessly, and volatility goes down and complacency is high, that means folks are buying equities that are not aware of the risks of the stock market. The moment the fear comes back to the market, for whatever reason, those guys are gone in a heartbeat. “
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“Merk, who has $400 million under management, likes gold and explains, “The medium to long term reason why I like gold is I don’t think we can afford real positive interest rates. . . . If you look at real interest rates, they have been negative. They have gotten more negative of late, and Janet Yellen is promising she is going to be late in raising rates. So, even as nominal rates go up, real rates are going to continue to be negative. So, I don’t buy gold because of a crisis flaring up here and there because those things can be short term. Now, Putin has a long term interest in instability in Ukraine, but I buy gold mostly because if I look 10 years out, and you think we are going back to the historic rate that we’ve paid on financing our deficit, we’ll be paying more than a trillion dollars a year to finance our national debt. We can’t afford that. So, that means the Fed is going to keep rates low, and we are not going to be paying a trillion dollars a year. Something is going to give, and gold is the purest way to play those sorts of scenarios.””
(full article here)