OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

that be a bottom with support …freefall..

You are probably dead on with the possibility of “vaccinations:” given to the poor people in Africa to create this Ebola scenario. Lots of money could be made selling vaccines but I think it is just one more distraction in a whole pile of distractions that have come along lately. I believe something ugly comes forth to the US or globally. We sure have a lot of other things to keep our minds preoccupied. What will the magician pull out of his magic hat next?

interview with John Kosar at Asbury Research

What about the gold market and the dollar?

“Let me take your question this way. I don’t know if we talked about this previously, but back in June I put out a piece that indicated the hedgers in the oil market, and they are using the futures market to hedge their holdings, were indicating to me that they thought oil prices were overvalued about 103 to 104 dollars a barrel. And we subsequently had a pretty steep drop…in a pretty relatively short period of time. I’m now seeing that same kind of hedger that is indicating to me that they think the dollar is overvalued…so what that tells me is…the smart money thinks the dollar has gone a little too far too fast and is actually putting in a hedge that is going to lock in their dollar gains up here. So what I think that means is probably between now and Thanksgiving we are going to have a move down here in the dollar and it’s going to surprise a lot of people…if that happens it’s going to support gold and we’re going to get a gold rally because of the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar over the past 20 years or more. So I wouldn’t touch gold right now. It may have a little bit further to fall but once we get a little movement in the dollar back down…then I’m going to start watching the asset flows in gold. Once those asset flows start to turn positive again, I think gold is going to be a nice place to be…for the next 2-3 months.”

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/john-kosar/top-heavy-stock-market-more-pain

Fracking the US – Monterey Shale’s 96% downgrade blows the scam

Dylan Murphy & Jo Muphy

19th June 2014

The US’s drive to become a top global oil and gas exporter by fracking has been blown wide open by a 96% write-down of California’s Monterey Shale – meant to hold two thirds of the US’s shale oil. How long before the whole enterprise is exposed as a monstrous Ponzi scheme? But the myth of American energy independence from fracking has been dealt a huge blow by the downgrade of recoverable oil from the Monterey Shale formation.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slashed its estimate of oil reserves from the Monterey shale formation by a massive 96%.

This field was meant to contain 64% of US shale oil

In 2011 the EIA released a report that reviewed US shale oil and gas reserves. It stated that the largest shale oil formation in America was the Monterey play in Southern California. The report estimated that the Monterey Shale formation held 15.5 billion barrels of oil or 64% of total US shale oil reserves.

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2442482/fracking_the_us_monterey_shales_96_downgrade_blows_the_scam.html

1 all derivatives are settle in usd

2. very heavy demand for dollars because of failures every where

a snippet from a hat trick letter by Jim Willie

http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/bricspost-analysts-hail-yuan-euro-direct-trading-announceenmt/

Analysts have given the thumbs up to the Chinese central bank’s announcement on Monday that the Chinese currency can now be traded directly against the euro in its interbank currency market.

Read the rest:

http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/bricspost-analysts-hail-yuan-euro-direct-trading-announceenmt/

winedoc

Money talks!!  There ought to be a law!! Boycott them all!!

the price is going to go down. Period!

One last chart for right now… it is the big gold ETF, GLD, which reported holdings that once more dropped. Total holdings are now at 772.25 tons, having now dropped to a level last seen in early December of 2008. All that gold that was bought based on the experiment we now call Quantitative Easing has been sold and the money put to work elsewhere. Simply put, Western-origin gold investment demand stinks to high heaven. Just remember that whenever some huckster out there regales you with wild, baseless and unverifiable claims of “massive gold buying”.

Sure someone is buying the gold that is being sold but that is true in any market, even as it falls in price because there must always be a buyer when there is a seller. The point to remember however is that if there are more sellers willing to sell at a lower price than there are buyers willing to buy at a high price, the price is going to go down. Period!

A last written item – in watching the Japanese Yen trade in the midst of this carnage this morning, I am noting some firmness in that currency, as well as in the bond market, telling us that there is some safe haven buying occurring against this backdrop. It does appear that is what is keeping gold supported about the $1200 level for now even as the gold mining shares evaporate in price.

On this map of the US, partly hidden by a Radcon 4 concern/watch, is a Radcon 5 Alert. That’s the highest reading given and the first one I’ve seen. I wonder what’s going on there???

http://radiationstation.com/                                                         Silverngold

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/29_John_Embry_-_Silver_Is_The_Cheapest_Asset_In_The_World_Today.html

Bill H:
It’s no laughing matter.

I read an article penned by Michael Snyder and posted on ZeroHedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-25/5-us-banks-each-have-more-40-trillion-dollars-exposure-derivatives last week and could only shake my head. In fact, the more I thought about it the more I started laughing. Yes, I laughed until tears came to my eyes. This is really not normal for me to break up laughing so hard at anything and certainly when it’s not even close to a laughing matter. Why did I laugh? Because it struck me as so funny that the “side bets” are so much larger than the system itself yet people expect the system to survive?

Snyder dug into the OCC’s latest quarterly report to find that the U.S. now has a 5th bank with derivatives held surpassing the $40 trillion mark, yes, TRILLION! JP Morgan of course has the largest U.S. position with $68 trillion while DeutschBank leads globally with $75 trillion. If you recall, some 4 years back the BIS changed the “way they count” derivatives and what “was” globally $1.4 quadrillion (with a “Q”) was magically recounted and restated at $700 trillion. Maybe they figured any number starting with a “Q” was just too scary to allow out to the public? I personally believe the “Q” number but for this exercise let’s assume the $700 trillion figure is correct

How much is $700 trillion? We can make a comparison and get some perspective by looking at a few other benchmarks. If we add up total global public debt we get a number of $54 trillion. If we include ALL global debt it is about $230 trillion. Looking at global stock market capitalization we get a number a little over $60 trillion. So, adding the values of ALL debt and ALL stocks on the planet together we come up short of $300 trillion. In case you were wondering, global GDP for 2012 was just shy of $72 trillion and the value of all gold ever mined we get a number of a puny $6 trillion.

If you take “only” the derivative holding of just the five biggest banks in the U.S., it dwarfs everything else. How is this really possible? How is it that the “bets” made and “insurance” purchased can be bigger than the system itself? I think the best way to look at this is the house has become far too large for the foundation. The house has grown far outside of the footings and grown multiple stories high. The “growth” of this financial house has been caused by the overuse of debt and the ease of financial derivatives. They were “good” once upon a time and did serve a purpose of hedging and protection. This all changed as they became used to “force” pricing, negate unwanted market moves and to paint whatever picture was desired. The problem is this, these derivatives are already in place and have already been used (spent) to paint “pretty prices”, it will take exponentially more derivatives to keep the picture painted correctly. The “bullets” have already been spent so to speak. This is a problem, there is not enough equity (collateral) left to create more derivatives from but they are needed to keep the game going… a serious problem.

The potential to be real scary is certainly there. If Ebola gains traction in the US and Europe etc that would surely be a Black Swan and throw a giant monkey wrench in the world’s economies.

PS Good advice!

If true and you see it pop up in your town stop eating out and fast food places and wash all food that is handled or don’t buy it. Food workers and anyone working in public will have to be careful what they touch, even doors especially inside of bathrooms.

hi bill,
here is a five year silver chart from SilverSeek.
silver is so oversold we are due for a bounce, and
a classic bull trap. the masses will think the bottom
is in, the price is going up, and pile on.
this isn’t the bottom. clive maund just posted on
kitco. i like clive, but he has been calling bottoms
for months now. none of us know where the bottom
is. even the Big Banks don’t know how far they can
push this.
yes, $15 silver is a real possibility and only about
$2 away tonight. there is nothing but air under
the price.
the obvious answer is to load up at these prices
and be thankful. we’ll look back at 2014 in
disbelief that silver and gold could fall this far.
look at the fundamentals, the big picture,
the long road ahead, and buy all you can.
roger

CDC Confirms First Ebola Case Diagnosed In The US

Tyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2014 16:45 -0400

As experts (not President Obama) had warned:

*CDC CONFIRMS FIRST EBOLA CASE DIAGNOSED IN THE UNITED STATES
CDC will hold a press conference at 530ET. This perhaps explains why CDC was “taking precautions in the US” as we noted previously. And don’t forget the administration’s interference in Ebola treatments.

That news explains this from last week..

*CDC SAYS NEED TO SCALE UP EBOLA TREATMENT CENTERS ASAP
*CDC SAYS TAKING PRECAUTIONS IN U.S. AGAINST EBOLA
It appears the term “contained” means a different thing once again…. as we warned here:

There’s a roughly 25 percent chance Ebola will be detected in the United Kingdom– and as much as an 18 percent chance it will turn up in the U.S. – by the end of September, the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows. The new paper includes the top 16 countries where Ebola is most likely to spread.

Though concerning, a spread to Western nations is not the biggest threat. At most, there would be a cluster of a few cases imported to the U.S., probably through air travel.

…

“We are at a crucial point,” Vespiginani said. “If the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground.”

As we have noted previously (via Michael Snyder):

Even more noteworthy is the fact that the U.S. State Department has just ordered 160,000 Hazmat suits…

cont. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-30/cdc-confirms-first-ebola-case-diagnosed-us

u can just go here and view the article with all the charts=

http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2014-09-29

[MAUND’S main contention rests on O.S. conditions and extreme pessimism–these are not enuff to turn a mkt but could precipitate a tradable bounce–After todays plunge in crude, I dunno how cavalier I’d be about taking a long stab–cause PM technicals are god-awful…but I might–this article is quite good though–DYOD]

Gold Market Update
originally published September 29th, 2014

the dollar hedgers chart (COT) shows that positions are already at record extremes – this chart calls for a reversal, and very soon.

Gold Hedgers chart shown below, which is a kind of COT chart and goes back further, makes plain that from the standpoint of traders’ positions we are now well into bullish territory – readings above the green line are bullish, and we can see that it is now well above this line, and in the past readings such as this have lead to significant rallies, with a similar reading in 2008 leading to an enormous rally. Looks good.

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Gold Optix (optimism) chart below makes fascinating viewing as it displays the current all-pervasive pessimism towards gold in graphical form. This chart makes plain that we are close to record pessimism, and thus it can be concluded that we are either at, or very close to a bottom.

The whole world is optimistic on the dollar now, probably up to and including IS, which is understandable considering how many greenbacks they have robbed from banks, and sentiment towards it is at wild “off the scale” bullish extremes. For this reason, a correction in the dollar looks imminent, even if it later continues higher for a while, and if it is gold and silver should turn higher. Let’s now review the evidence.First, the long-term 11-year chart for the dollar index shows the runup of recent weeks in the context of prior pattern development, and while the runup so far doesn’t look all that big historically speaking, it has arrived at a twin target and is critically overbought on its RSI indicator.

The 4-year chart shows to advantage the dramatic spike in the dollar index, which has resulted in it arriving at the target shown in a wildly overbought state. Thus it is now vulnerable to a sudden reversal.

Meanwhile, the dollar optix or optimism index chart shows that optimism also is already at record extremes and is “off the scale”The record shows that such wild optix index extremes have almost always coincided with a top or closely preceded it.

Conclusion: we can now emphatically conclude that gold is believed to be either at or very close to an important low here, especially as the dollar looks set to turn lower soon. Only in the event of an immediate all-out across the board deflationary plunge would gold prices be likely to drop further.
End of update.

you took the words right out of my mouth on,  “You didn’t build this” shite…..get ready America. Something’s going to happen, too many dumb people in the cart riding, nobody pulling

I wonder if  Africa had a  set of people who were vaccinated with something before the break out.  Just wondering and if not what is causing so many people getting at once since it isn’t airborne. I would be looking around at a source besides someone going out killing a monkey, what about everybody else that didn’t. They make the excuse that they are not informed enough so don’t take precautions and keep sick person home but what about everybody else as it is not easily airborne  as of yet anyways. Then suddenly theres a possible treatment for something that has been pretty dormant for so many years. Or at least look for the Typhoid Marys.

He must think he’s talking to a bunch of mushrooms because he’s sure trying to keep them in the dark and feed them full of shit!! I’ve never heard so many lies from that POS all collected in one place, but I can’t bring myself to listen to the whole thing. Anybody that says they can’t see through that is either retarded or on the take. #%^@@#$$%!! (IMO)  Silverngold

I think collectively Europe has more gold than the US and as we’ve seen Europe trying to get back any gold US holding has been a problem.

spooky science 101

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsnZi-Kn4pU

all my democrap friends think this is hocus pocus….it’s right here in your faces people. We’re not even talking about whether he’s a citizen or not. Obozo does all the talking himself. I don’t care that he’s muslim, but don’t lie about it Obozo.