Loading ...interview with John Kosar at Asbury Research
What about the gold market and the dollar?
“Let me take your question this way. I don’t know if we talked about this previously, but back in June I put out a piece that indicated the hedgers in the oil market, and they are using the futures market to hedge their holdings, were indicating to me that they thought oil prices were overvalued about 103 to 104 dollars a barrel. And we subsequently had a pretty steep drop…in a pretty relatively short period of time. I’m now seeing that same kind of hedger that is indicating to me that they think the dollar is overvalued…so what that tells me is…the smart money thinks the dollar has gone a little too far too fast and is actually putting in a hedge that is going to lock in their dollar gains up here. So what I think that means is probably between now and Thanksgiving we are going to have a move down here in the dollar and it’s going to surprise a lot of people…if that happens it’s going to support gold and we’re going to get a gold rally because of the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar over the past 20 years or more. So I wouldn’t touch gold right now. It may have a little bit further to fall but once we get a little movement in the dollar back down…then I’m going to start watching the asset flows in gold. Once those asset flows start to turn positive again, I think gold is going to be a nice place to be…for the next 2-3 months.”
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/john-kosar/top-heavy-stock-market-more-pain