Your scenario #2 is a good possibility if they manage to take the guns using something like this Ebola scare to accomplish it. Over 800 FEMA camps are already in place and ready for occupation.
What the hell happened to the testosterone levels in the American male?? It seems they no longer have a pair. Either that or they just have not gotten mad enough yet, but time is running short as the govt takes more and more liberties away. The United Nations Agenda 21 is being practiced covertly in more and more state and local governments. Property rights are disappearing along with all the other freedoms. If the dollar is devalued and property taxes raised they will own almost all the real estate again.
What I am seeing is a giant funnel into which, one by one and gradually in herds, the population is being pushed. First lower educational standards, then welfare, foodstamps, jobs disappearing, mortgage fraud and property repossession. Next dollar devaluation along with massive increases in basic necessities like food, fuel, electricity and that will account for most of the population …..and all the time the country (and the world) is being sprayed with chemtrails so that HAARP facilities around the world can create catastrophes like flood, drought, and hurricane, to further weaken the people both physically and financially. Add to that GMO foods,vaccinations, food toxins, and created illnesses like this Ebola virus and few will be left to need herding into that giant funnel.
Welcome to the End Times folks. These events were all recorded thousands of years ago and we are most certainly living to see them. Get right with your Creator, open your Bibles and read two primary books; Daniel and Revelations. There are so many of those prophesies being fulfilled today it is difficult or impossible to deny there is a God. IMO Silverngold