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Countertrends Can’t Over Ride Basic Long Term Fundamental Trends

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:06 on October 9, 2014  

Trader Dan,
re your part:
Central Bankers are very good at moving their currencies by talking them down or talking them up, but IF the movement is AGAINST the primary trend, which is driven by fundamentals, the countertrend move will not have any staying power. It takes a shift in the fundamentals and that means a shift in policies.

Agreed 100%. But in a major long term view. My hobby has been guessing the future regarding money and the economy since the 1970s. Many of my “guesses” or predictions have been falling into place.

Fundamentally, globalization was a big mistake, and 9/11/01 was a big sucker punch that started a reversal of globalization. The entire global economy is in a reversal “transition” from trends that started after WW II. They attacked during an economy and market dot.com slowdown that peaked started down after March ’00. They waited until 9/11/01.

Because of the attack, the central planners, to avoid an economic collapse, and NOT give satisfaction to the attackers, they dropped rates (manipulated) down to zero, with no documentation liar loans, and created a real estate and “home depot” BOOM to over ride and delay that collapse, until real estate finally peaked and crashed in 2007-8.

TPTB have been “winging it” since ’01. I’m optimistic for the USA future, simply because the old ways are no longer sustainable. The ways that killed our old high living standards of the ’45-’75 era when 40 hours a week at any menial job was adequate to live good. These days? Its 80-100 hours needed. Both spouses employed instead of just one.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.