Sierra Leone’s horrific Ebola outbreak is a humanitarian and health disaster which is impacting all aspects of society and daily life. Sadly, recent reports and projections indicate that the worst is far from over. The Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation’s latest figures – a vast underestimate of reality according to most international observers – showed 451 new cases in the seven days ending October 15^th. This figure represents more than 15 percent of the total cases diagnosed in the country since May. Far from abating, the crisis is accelerating.

Underneath the acute and very real health issues facing thousands of Sierra Leoneans, is an equally nefarious and perhaps even more far reaching series of issues facing the business and investor communities. Jonathan Shafer, CEO and Chairman of First Step Economic Opportunity Zone (a subsidiary of faith-based humanitarian organization, World Hope International) and Managing Director of Africa Felix Juice, Sierra Leone’s only value added exporter, has had the unpleasant opportunity to view Ebola’s negative commercial impact firsthand.

“Our juice factory, which buys fruit from more than 5,000 small farmers, has been shuttered since August for a variety of reasons – nearly all Ebola related,” said Shafer during an email interview. “My COO and Chief Technician – both expatriates – have evacuated the country and have no immediate plans to return. Checkpoints and new public transit restrictions have greatly increased the time and cost for my employees to reach the factory. Banks and other critical businesses are no longer open for a full day making even the simplest tasks extremely difficult to complete. As a result of all these issues, our 125 highly capable local employees are unable to make fruit juice products for our customers in Europe and throughout West Africa.”

Shafer’s situation is not unique. Nearly all ‘non-critical’ expats have evacuated the country, meaning that most businesses requiring any kind of international managerial assistance have either halted operations or are functioning at a fraction of capacity. Employee wages are either being temporarily reduced or completely eliminated via layoffs. Africa Felix has thus far been able to avoid drastically reducing its own workforce, but Shafer stated that any deepening of the crisis will certainly force the option to be reexamined.

Planned investments and new projects are also being delayed or halted as a result of Ebola’s widespread impact. Since the conclusion of the civil war in early 2002, Sierra Leone has enjoyed growing attention from the international investment community, attracting billions of investment dollars in industries as diverse as manufacturing, agriculture, mining, tourism, and bio-fuel. Planned investments in steel, power, mining, and agro-processing that were announced in late 2013 and early 2014 are now on hold until the uncertainty surrounding the length and depth of the Ebola crisis can be brought into some kind of focus.

Shafer has noticed a marked shift in his interactions with the investment community in the last two months. “Initially, investor fear was primarily limited to those players who were inexperienced in the African setting. Seasoned investors saw the initial outbreak as merely a standard risk of doing business in the region. However, in recent weeks, as the crisis has deepened and uncertainty of outcome has increased, the tone from even experienced investors has changed. Uncertainty really is the key word here.”

Business planning and investment decisions are very difficult in an environment where the World Bank is projecting widely divergent scenarios with possible 2015 regional GDP losses ranging from $1.6 billion to $25.2 billion – two very different outcomes with very different business responses. With so much uncertainly, no one knows how the underlying health crisis will play out. As a result, Shafer warns that currently operating businesses will suffer and hundreds of millions in investment dollars will remain parked on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.

During his first term, Sierra Leone’s President Ernest Bai Koroma boldly and repeatedly declared to anyone who cared to listen that his country was “open for business”. Thanks to the efforts of thousands of Sierra Leoneans, that hopeful statement was largely actualized with GDP growth rates of 15.2% and 13% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Huge gains were made, and are, sadly, now being conceded. According to the current Finance Minister, Kaifala Marah, speaking during a recent interview, “every gain that we have made has been lost.”

At the moment, Sierra Leone is hoping that the international community responds forcefully enough to the Ebola health crisis so that its impact is not overshadowed by the effects of the Ebola business crisis. In the meantime, Africa Felix, and many companies like it, will be biding its time and planning for a future where Sierra Leone is, once again, “open for business”.

For more information on how to help Sierra Leone fight the immediate Ebola crisis, please visit: http://www.worldhope.org/ourwork—ebola-emergency

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Sierra Leone’s horrific Ebola outbreak is first and foremost a humanitarian and health disaster, which is impacting all aspects of society and daily life.