Loading ...I realized I never answered your question about how I knew to go long grains a couple of weeks ago. I would like to say “oh i knew this or that pointed to higher prices” but not so. I just realized almost or all were on one side of the boat and I thought I would move to the other side of the boat. Of course usually those on the other side are correct but sometimes they are not correct and when they are not correct because there are so many there they are incorrect in a big way. It is like when we had an option trading company – sure most options lose money and most of ours were no exceptions. But the winners were so big that they overwhelmed the larger number of relatively small losers.
So I guess you can say it was just lucky and it was.
aurum
added:
For those of you who do not follow technicals regardless of the manipulation that always and continues to happen – perhaps with better technology now so more effective –
Still the COT showed the heavy short position and the chart both with fibs and ewave counts showed a bounce at least so technicals did play a big role in my bet.
A bigger contrarian view is that we have seen a 4 year low in the grains and prices will amaze – in which case I missed a chance at a huge fortune.