OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Trader Dan claims the wee hrs a.m. sellers are trapped longs crying “get me out” at any price–this writer disagrees:

Posted by Richard640 @ 8:21 on November 6, 2014  

“This swamped an otherwise excellent session in Shanghai,”

After searching and searching for the “capitulation crowd,” it seems he/they/it has a new proclivity and particular urge to indiscriminately hit the nuke sell button at 12:30 a.m. EST, while Japan is on its lunch break and with most gold trading at a crawl. The one today was indicated to be 13,000 contracts or 37 tonnes. Later another large trade of undetermined size hit the market. This swamped an otherwise excellent session in Shanghai, where 12.8 tonnes was delivered.

The Commitment of Traders report on Friday will no doubt reflect an unprecedented and extreme managed money short position in both gold and silver. I am guessing it took 50,000-60,000 contracts of new naked shorts to drive the price of gold down $80. That would bring the total gold short position for managed money slingers to more than 120,000.


NOVEMBER 05, 2014

GDXJ has 68.54 million shares outstanding. During the last five days, it traded about 110 million shares. Although it seems there is an extreme capitulation out of hands that capitulated long ago, the reality the forensics point to is an over-the-top derivative trade and hyper-HFT quote stuffing being put on in this sector. The entire tiny GDXJ capitalization has had a “complete capitulation turnover.” With a sixth day in store that will be a “double capitulation” over six days. I haven’t checked all 63 stocks in the index, but among the names I am involved with I have observed almost no institutional selling during the last couple weeks.

The five-day turnover in GDX was about 100% of total cap, indicating that sellers there have had one total turnover “capitulation. And once again, I have been hard pressed to find institutional selling there either.

So I decided to investigate how the “capitulation” materialized in the precious metal coins market. Didn’t find it there either as a brisk 625,000 silver ounces were sold Monday and Tuesday at the U.S. Mint.

Update: The US Mint has just issued an alert to Primary Dealers across the US that Silver Eagle inventories, which according to the Mint began offering today at over 2 million ounces, are now SOLD OUT as of 12:30pm EST.

Next in my Sherlock Holmes sleuthing for the elusive gold liquidator, I checked out Bullion Vault, which holds gold for clients in western locations like London, Zurich, New York and Toronto — where allegedly gold is largely ignored. But this outfit reported a positive buy-sell index in September at 53.4, and in October as well at 51.9. Vault gold holdings were unchanged at 33.2 metric tons. Customers’ silver holdings increased 19.9 tons to a record 488 tons.

Crimex open interest is like a broken record. Clearly, more naked shorting as gold OI was up 3,488 and silver 966. So no “long capitulation” there either. Plus, there are still 117,675 December silver contracts still hanging around.

Another 10 tonnes of gold was removed from Crimex vaults yesterday, bringing that down to 251.94 tonnes. And apparently 2.39 tonnes was scurried up from the GLD etf. That leaves 738.82 tonnes of tungsten and paper receipts left to go there.

The GOFO is still at a rare negative rate: one month -0.05%; two months -0.015%. Supplies are tight, so apparently the “capitulated” gold isn’t turning up here either.


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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.