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Dream the impossible dream

Posted by Richard640 @ 14:45 on November 7, 2014  

Here, again, is the gold bugs “dream scenario” endlessly elaborated & always the same-

I’m beginning to think it’s not impossible…I am also aware–from a sentiment angle- that on a one day rebound in gold this appears and that I am even considering it–but if gold ever powers up tp 1900 again no one will be on board from the gold bug community because disbelief will be sooooo strong…with that caveat, here it is=enjoy! BTW-I have said for many yrs that world gold exchanges will simply shut down around gold $2200–and this writer mentions a similar scenario–just remember, every one of these one day rallies has been totally reversed in 2 to 4 trading days–we need to see $25 plus gains the next 3 to 4 days–if not then this will be a top today for a while.


Today one of the top people in Hong Kong spoke with King World News about a nightmare scenario for the shorts in the gold market. Hedge fund manager William Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, also discussed what it would mean for the gold shorts if this terrifying scenario started to unfold. Below is what Kaye had to say in this extraordinary interview:

Eric King: “Bill, let’s look past where we are in this cyclical bear market (in gold). When we come out of this and begin to spike to the upside, you’ve described what you expect to see as the greatest short squeeze in history in any market. In the past you’ve mentioned gold getting to $5,000 or above and other people have even higher price targets, but how do you expect that squeeze to unfold?”

Kaye: “That’s a great question. And it’s at levels like today that it almost seems like it’s hard to imagine that scenario, but it will occur. And the way I think this will unfold is when people least expect it — when sentiment readings, as they are now, are exceedingly negative. And we are at levels now from a valuation perspective, we’ve mentioned tightness of the metal in the system, in which we could get a tradable rally and possibly something much more….
And this is the type of thing that, because of the construction of the system as we know it, could lead to outcomes to the upside that currently seem unimaginable to most people. By that I mean we have what I call an awful lot of synthetic shorts in the market — unallocated bank accounts in the system, which is basically fractional reserve in nature, that amount to shorts on gold.

And as you hit each important level, first $1,200, $1,300, $1,400, imagine a scenario where we are repeating and going beyond what we saw in 2011, where we pierced the $1,900 handle. But essentially everything goes in the reverse direction, and there is massive short covering by all these institutions, primarily banks, that owe people gold and are beginning to get notice of physical delivery. Also they will need to dynamically hedge themselves, in addition to positive buying, which of course we are still getting even at these low levels from China, India, Russia, and various other places. And there will be excitement again among the retail class, and you would get massive short covering as we got past certain levels.

And this would cause one of two things: This would either add a tremendous tailwind to that buying that I would project would take us through the $2,000 level and far beyond, or we get a freezing of trading with the Comex and other major paper-centric exchanges shutting down. We’ve already had two major houses do that — ABN AMRO and Rabobank — but the whole system could go that way, as opposed to taking the loss in all these unallocated gold accounts.

And that would cause for some period of time gold to go bid-only. I think you would see very little physical offered, and gold at levels much, much higher than we are seeing today, and would likely go bid-only until things could get sorted out. And this would all happen in the context a crisis in fiat currencies generally.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.