Loading ...“The proposal requires a simple 50% majority to pass (Volksmehr), with the further proviso that there be a majority in at least 50% of Switzerland’s 26 cantons (Ständemehr). There is no minimum turnout. The Ständemehr is the lower hurdle, since the vote is biased towards smaller, conservative cantons more likely to vote yes. In the absence of official polls, the proposal’s likelihood of success can only be gauged from polls conducted by newspapers and other media outlets. The most respected polls are published by the radio and TV platform SRG. According to their latest poll (another poll is due next week), 44% of respondents intended to vote in favour of the amendment, with 39% rejecting it.
Swiss pre-referendum polls commonly see the share of ‘no’ votes rise during the lead up to the actual vote, as the political and business establishment ramp up campaigns against radical proposals. However, it is important to note that the Swiss vote on three separate referenda on 30 November. Most of the political debate has concerned the ‘EcoPop’ initiative which seeks to curtail immigration to Switzerland based on a quota system. Some observers fear that the political focus on the immigration debate might lead voters to pay less attention to the gold proposal. There is also a concern that moderately conservative voters uncomfortable with the anti-immigration initiative might vote in favour of the gold proposal in compensation.”