Loading ...I’ve been away a couple of days. So I trust everyone is fine.
6 days since silver, gold and HUI lows, lows still holding. So far, ok.
November 18 is imminent bringing with a new mid monthly contest.
Technically the metals and a lot of derivative assets based on the metals have flags which suggest probability of continued downwards movement. In gold last week’s price movement can be interpreted as a flag formation located under the recently broken support level, and under that view price is gathering energy for a new break to lower levels.
So technically the trend is still down, being based on completed price moves, as I have carefully said in recent days. And all that may occur.
But I look to evolution of quality of support, and quality of rally vs drawdown which is a more realtime than back looking pursuit, and also all trends must come to an end sometime, and this is a reasonable time for such a thing to occur. So maybe what I was looking at end of November, and which is here “in embryo”, will slowly grow bigger during the coming fortnight and gradually become recognizable on the charts. I could also (of course) be a tad early, in which case better buying opportunities could present themselves.
That would occur because there are a great number of trend following bears out there who have learned to sell the PM rallies and will continue until that approach goes wrong. These bears have not yet been given a lesson, though some signs are already there for observant bears to see and exercise caution. So we got through intraday retest, and so far (today) through a week without new lows, next it must become multi week, and that’s what brings the next high volume, though rising open interest shows bears are already piling it on.
If they break it down it can have another swing down, but such a swing would be at a shallow angle (rather than precipitous) I think. This level is not done yet. Watch and wait.
Have I mentioned I’m substantially long? Not leveraged or into miners though.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade?page=325#comment-448822