OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Which price drives which? Does the dollar strengthening drive down the dollar price of oil primarily and vice versa or does an increase in the dollar price of oil force the dollar index down? Or does neither factor drive the other and what we see is just what simply is, things happen, prices for dollars and oil fluctuate and the two are tied and simply tango with one another essentially as one being?

I think the dollar drives oil, the PM complex and the general stock market. I don’t think oil drives dollars. I think lots of people in the world are in dollars b/c other currencies are weak. I think it’s also important to understand that OPEC and the frackers have the spigots wide open right now. It’s sort of a race to the bottom in oil to shake out the weak. Everyone needs cash to operate. Lastly, I believe derivatives can make the markets give the wrong signals to the little guys. Open to opinions.

but then we have abnormalities like Richard pointed out, how’s come Gold isn’t retreating with a higher dollar right now? They uncouple sometimes. I think they squeeze the players out with a constantly changing battlefield. Here hold this mercury in your hands….what do you see? as it runs through your fingers

So why is gold not 1080-90 instead of 1195…my fine feathered friends?

Could it be that the $ is not the sole determinator of golds fate? All major economies are debt ridden and printing–buying power resides world-wide–I think more and more investors want gold exposure irregardless of the comex $ price…

Gold – The Pop

Like my Mom used to always say, “profits are made and players get played when smart traders fade the most popular trade.” In the near term, it may in fact be more about positioning than macro events, and as of right now, it seems that getting on the other side of the dollar might actually be a decent way to earn a few more of them.

Submitted by Derrick Wulf of No Easy Trade

Is The Long Dollar Trade Over?

It seemed almost too obvious. The European Central Bank was imposing negative interest rates and devising new quantitative easing schemes to combat the growing threat of deflation; the SNB was buying foreign currencies in “unlimited quantities” to cap the value of the Franc; the Bank of Japan was madly printing Yen in a desperate frenzy to finally stir up domestic demand; and then the Bank of China responded with its own rate cuts. All this, while the Federal Reserve was quietly ending its quantitative easing policies and even hinting at forthcoming (2015) rate hikes.

The long dollar trade, and all it’s various expressions, soon became one of the most crowded trades of 2014. Investors were not only long the dollar against euro and yen, they were short gold, silver, copper, and commodities in general, even using the dollar to help justify late-cycle crude oil shorts in recent weeks. Investors were also long stocks, as all these freshly printed euro, franc, and yen would inevitably seek out “greener” pastures abroad.

But the dollar rally has started to lose momentum, and with year-end approaching it might not be surprising to see some investors take a bit of risk off their books. Many of these investors still have decent profits in their long dollar expressions, but the huge reversals in gold and silver yesterday may provide a bit of a warning to those still in the trade. Moreover, with liquidity in the financial markets a mere shadow of what it used to be, waiting until Christmas to trim positions might not be the most prudent strategy for institutional managers. This turkey is cooked, and it’s time to give thanks.

Now a few charts. First the dollar index, which looks like it’s finishing a classic wave 5 rally on waning momentum and notable RSI divergence (Chart 1). Do we really want to get greedy here?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-02/long-dollar-trade-over

The funny thing about this First Majestic (AG) (FR.to) news today…

…is how it’s suddenly pretty important to the company. Here’s the NR and I’ve stuck the whole thing at the end of this post for reference purposes, but the matter to consider is this:

When the judgement originally came down, favouring First Majestic (FR.to) (AG) and going against Hector Davila, the market gave a small shrug and just carried on without giving FR.to much credit. That’s because on April 24th 2013 FR.to was a CAD$12.37 stock, the market cap was CAD$1.445Bn (with a B) and the CAD$96.3m awarded represented just 6.7% of the FR.to market cap, as well as probably realizing that there would be a whole long appeals process to go through as well.

But now, even with CAD$14.9m of the judgement banked, the CAD$81m that’s left to be collected by FR.to is important cash for the company because FR.to is now a mere CAD$4.90 share price and the award, if collected tomorrow (and that appeal has just been thrown out by the Supreme Court so where is Davila going next, The Hague?), would represent 14.1% of its current CAD$575.91m market cap. Or if you like, it’s 69c/share on a sub-$5 share price. It also compares to the U$37.23m it has in cash treasury as at its last quarterly filing….or if you prefer, FR collects and triples its treasury overnight.

Finally, note that FR.to has not accrued any of the outstanding CAD$81m to its financials yet (see note 25 of the 3q14 financials, if you care enough) so the day that cash arrives it’ll be a plop! oh look! big money from nowhere! moment. Anyway, here’s the NR. Beats me why this didn’t move the stock more significantly than the silver producer average today, seems to have been totally overlooked.

more http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/

Interesting idea but fairly unlikely I think. From everything I’ve read the ISIS guys would rather see the Saudi Royal Family’s heads rolling on the sand. JMO

Caledonia Mining Corporation: Filing of NI 43-101 Technical Report Including a Preliminary Economic Assessment

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/caledonia-mining-corporation-filing-ni-070000288.html

Santacruz Silver Reports Third Quarter 2014 Financial Results

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/santacruz-silver-reports-third-quarter-120000400.html

Ghost of Christmas past… A Northern Pacific F9 pulls a Christmas train thru a winter wonderland on the Mt. Rainier Scenic Railroad.
http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=508573

For yesterday’s action. So predictable.

Floridagold, Thanks. The Hag is one of the greats!

George Ure at UrbanSurvival.com has an interesting and plausible take on deflation and what is happening in the oil market.

Basically, The Saudi’s (with western encouragement) are taking down the price of crude to ‘punish Russia’. But the smart Saudis have also begun to figure that by taking oil even lower, they can also shut down US production and do some real deflationary damage to the US. Then…. when the time for the bottom is right, let oil explode in price for runaway inflation, just as they join the ‘global caliphate’ of ISIS.

Read it for yourself here:
http://urbansurvival.com/monday-in-the-land-of-lay-downs/

Oh, yeah, Gold could also go much lower with oil under this scenario, but will make out well when the inflation finally hits….. when the US is in economic ruins.

Winedoc