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Bob “bowl bust” Stoops embarassed again after a great win last year against the Crimson Tide.

rno

Posted on December 29, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

CrudeOil- 2014

Our original forecast for oil back in 1997 was that it should rise to reach the $100 level at least by 2007. We reached $99.29 in 2007 and then 2008 was a wild trading year reaching $147.27 intraday crashing back to $35.13 and closing the year at $44.60. Oil made the intraday low in 2009 and then rallied back into 2011 to score the highest yearly closing at $98.83. We can see from the chart above back to 1902, the rally from the 1998 low was a perfect 13 year event.

We warned that a year-end closing BELOW $57 will signal a sharp decline should continue. It certainly appears that will be accomplished and then we will look for a retest of the $35-$31 level. We see a Panic Cycle ahead on our yearly models as well.

Overall, this is part of the meltdown for BIG BANG. There is not going to be much left standing as every field of investment and economy should be hit rather hard. We will be looking at putting out a special report on Energy for this is part of the massive global deflationary cycle underway.

I am talking about the principles this country was founded upon.

Fact or Fiction?

This past year was jam packed with news of all sorts. Some was surprising, some of it was expected, while other news seemed to either be another dot to connect or an outlier dot to be connected later. We even got news from time to time which even in today’s world could be considered bizarre or surreal. Suffice it to say, were we receiving the current news of today just 15 years back, the financial and social worlds would have been in outright panic. Not so today, the sheep are sound asleep even while a few well intending herders are sounding the alarm. The populace in general have become dumbed down, beaten down and barely able to read past whatever headline it happens to be for the day. Let’s call the condition “comfortably numb”…

I promised to write a “fictional” account of what my thoughts were “the day after” the financial lights go out. This effort could easily be expanded into a full book because the ramifications of the coming credit meltdown are so far reaching. The following is my opinion and as such, if you don’t agree with some of the possibilities I will provide, then please just smile, grin and bear it or just stop reading. Here goes…

For years Jack and Jill America had gone through the daily life of what they believed was the American dream. They’ve been married 25 years and have their 2.3 children. Life has been getting tougher though, Jack and Jill both work but neither has had a substantive raise in nearly 10 years and their firstborn is now 3 years into college with the younger one getting ready for next fall. They have accumulated some assets over the years but will have to refi their home’s equity to complete paying for college. They’ve done everything they were told to do by the mainstream. They’ve contributed to their 401K’s at work and even added to personal IRA’s and even 529 plans to help pay for college. Jack and Jill have so far “climbed the hill” of life without any major setbacks, this is about to change as will their entire life!

Going into a long weekend, Jack and Jill have a conversation over dinner. They talk about the recent headlines they’ve been reading and the topic turns to the economy and markets. The Dow just five days ago hit an all-time high and the employment news earlier in the morning was really good! The problem is, the employment news said the housing industry was doing terrific, particularly in their region. Jill works in the mortgage market and Jack works for a bank so they both know this news doesn’t really add up, the discussion morphs into “are they really telling us the truth”?

Then, something starts to happen at the front of the restaurant. It looks like four or five couples are all arguing with the owner and the discussion is becoming heated. You see, their credit cards are not working, none of them! One gentleman slips out to cross the street and get cash from the ATM to pay his bill …but he came back empty handed. The “tone” begins to change once another customer who went to a different ATM machine returns with the news his card was also denied. The owner decides to call the police because it looks like he is going to be stiffed on most all of the tables since he generally is paid by credit or debit card 85-90% of the time. The police inform him this is happening everywhere in the city, at gas stations, Walmart, restaurants, everywhere! So, Jack leaves his business card and promises to come back on Monday to pay, a nice gesture but one he had no idea was pointless!

They spend the weekend watching the news feverishly because they found out it was not “just” their city having these problems …it was all across the nation. They feel some relief on Saturday morning as the “news” tells them a coordinated hack attack has taken down the clearing system for banks and is only temporary…but their warm fuzzy feeling turns to near fear when they go online to the internet. It turns out, the banks are being closed indefinitely and something about China and gold …and dollars being refused by foreigners. Jack doesn’t get it nor does Jill, how can this be? What do you mean the banks are closed and dollars not being accepted? Dollars are used all over the world …and what is Jack supposed to do Monday morning if his bank is closed? Will they still pay him his salary?

Monday morning comes and Jack goes to work only to find a sign in the front door “Bank closed indefinitely, sorry for the inconvenience” and a sign on the employee entrance with a phone number to call. He calls and gets a recording, “due to circumstances out of our control, you will not be required to attend work until further notice”. A cold chill washes down his back and he calls Jill. She is already on her way home because her mortgage company is also closed, what are they going to do they wonder? The first thought in both their minds is “food,” what are we going to do for food? When they meet back at the house, Jack pulls out $300 from a drawer that he tucked away after coming back from vacation last month. On their way to the store, they see huge lines as they pass gas stations. They both wonder why there are lines since credit cards aren’t working but they soon find out …the grocery store is mobbed and the shelves are almost bare. All of the canned goods are gone as are the basic staples like rice, pasta and beans. There are a few vegetables left, along with spices and condiments but nothing else. They were apparently too late.

As they were leaving the store, Jill thought, “what about dog food” for our 3 beloved canine children? Just as she started to say something, shots rang out and a big commotion near aisle nine. Oh my God said Jack, this whole thing is breaking down! They rushed out of harm’s way, got in their car and sped home. How could this happen they wondered as the stock market was near all-time highs? How could “hackers” create such a havoc and now apparently some lives are going to be lost? How could this happen, THIS IS AMERICA!

As they pull into their subdivision with the intent of getting online to get a better idea of what was actually happening, they are stunned when they see a sign at the front gate. The sign says “MANDATORY MEETING for ALL HOMEOWNERS tonight at 7:00 PM”. They just look at each other and say “this is not good”. What is going to happen? They were about to find out!

With trepidation, Jack and Jill showed up at the completely filled community center, the pitch and decibel level were off the charts. So much commotion and so loud, until some guy started clanging two metal garbage can tops together to get people to quiet down. As it turns out, the “guy” happens to be a long time County Sherriff’s Deputy, Dave. He informs the crowd that they are now on their own, as is everyone else in the country. The banking system has come down and will not be back up for an indefinite period of time, “the big one” everyone knew was coming but had ignored for so long, has finally arrived. The National Guard has been called out to the cities as have regular military. The cities are war zones he says, it’s only a matter of time before it spills out and into the suburbs.

The deputy also informs everyone that he will not be going to work the next day as he would not be paid anyway. He lives in this neighborhood and plans to stay home to protect his family and belongings, he also informs “all of my other coworkers have made the same decision,” we are all on our own now. Most shocking to Jill was when he asked for a show of hands as to who had firearms and who didn’t. She had no idea that almost three quarters of her neighborhood had guns. She was not a real fan of guns but Jack convinced her they should get their concealed handgun licenses. They had had their licenses for several years but the sad part is they never bought any guns because they didn’t see any immediate need, they do now!

Deputy Dave pretty much took over from that point. He chose who he wanted “guarding the gates” for a rotation on a 24 hour basis. The neighborhood also had several ex-military personnel. In almost light switch fashion, the community turned into a functioning military garrison. He also made clear, any crime from within would be dealt with swiftly and severely, theft of anything from within would be considered a capital offense. Groups began to form. Close neighbors began to group up and talk to each other. Jack and Jill saw three of their immediate neighbors all together and approached them. What are we going to do they all asked?

What exactly did “indefinitely” mean? One neighbor said he didn’t think there would be much of a problem for more than a week or so as his computer geek friends told him the problem was being fixed. Another neighbor said he wouldn’t be so sure of that, the Chinese have asked for an audit of U.S. gold and would not accept any dollars for any trade until they were satisfied we still had some gold to back our dollars. He went on to say the Chinese were rumored to be paying $50,000 per ounce for any and all gold for sale which would make U.S. gold worth trillions of $ …if we still had it. Jack asked the question, “what does gold have to do with any of this, dollars are in the banks, not gold?” You see, Jack, (like 95%+ of the populace) even being in the financial world didn’t understand what was happening even after the fact. His ignorant bliss was being shattered.

Several days passed, the dog food was almost all gone. Jack looked in the pantry and calculated they could keep eating for another 5 days before the food was completely gone. There had been talk about food pantries the government was setting up in cities, word also got around about one opening in the little town three miles away. Jack thought to himself, at least we won’t starve. His relief then turned to panic as Jill came in from next door, she was just informed that one of the neighbors was shot and killed as he was leaving town. He had gone in and bartered for a little bit of food, now, he and the food were both gone. In less than one full week, the United States had gone from “model civility” to lawlessness.

Jack was furiously thinking about what he could do to feed his family. He remembered the little old lady down by the river who had chickens, maybe he could buy some eggs? She was only two miles away and it would be safe to go on foot by jumping a couple of fence lines, so he told Jill his plan and set out with his $300 cash in hand. Sure enough, the little old lady was there and she met Jack with a shotgun pointed, she remembered him though from the bank. Jack asked if he could buy some eggs and she said “with what?”. Jack told her he would gladly give her $20 for a dozen eggs and the old lady just laughed at him. He said “how about $100 for a dozen?” she laughed again and said he couldn’t have any eggs for $1,000. She would however consider accepting something “real” in exchange. If he had a bicycle, or some 20 gage shotgun shells or something she could use, then he’d have some eggs. She thought to herself, this guy is a banker and understands money, maybe he has silver for exchange? … (Fat chance, I had to throw this one in for laughs!)

cont. http://blog.milesfranklin.com/

you’re forgetting that organized religion can’t keep your story straight. first the earth was the universe, you know in man’s spirit…. and then st cornucopias from his deathbed anounced that the Sun was the center of the universe. and then we set up the hubble telescope and we decided the earth isn’t the center of the universe nor is the Sun. And the Sun nor the earth we’re the center of the universe. and now we’ve decided there’s lots of universes. billions in fact. but you need to believe the story that’s told in the golden book. for its surely the right story. but sit down and let me read you a chapter brother. from the Golden Book of course. and I suppose in at another hundred years or two we will try to rewrite the book again. let’s keep it relevant of course. and the biggest fairy tale of all, it was all made in 7 days. I don’t need to watch no damned TV channels

Thanks for the comeback. Little by little I think more and more Americans are getting fed up with all the attention and favoritism mandated for minorities. Too many square pegs shoved into round holes. We constantly have an Al Sharpton, Jessie Jackson party in charge.

Re part:
“the days of standing each morning pledging to the flag each morning.(even a Lord’s prayer)..in the early sixties hiding under our wooden desks as protection from the Cuba missile. Story, smile..”

You certainly brought back some lost memories. I thought we were afraid of the USSR though. later on in life I came to the conclusion that it was a false and misleading, or fake rivalry, scare tactics on both sides, to justify defense spending profits on both sides. US and USSR.

All those tax dollars on both sides, wasted, pissed away and not a shot fired until the USSR went bankrupt first instead of us with all that spending. I figured China would be the next false flag enemy to justify spending tax dollars. That time might come with some feeble excuse.

A  new world order is a transitioning the world from being under the Judeo/Christian world order to a Satanic/Luciferian world order moving the world from under the rule and worship of God to Satan being worshiped as god.

Just turn as the cable channels. It does not take Einstein to figure this out.

The Vigilant Citizen – Symbols Rule the World

A ..buy out…and the digit buys …please understand..the power

Allow me to share a story or a historical insight, The book. The Fatal Shore.

Read the first chapters…think..it is an insight. Another, I once wrote, NOW all families ever left their home land because life was wonderful there. This complete nonsense of royalty and family guidance is well NOW here. Here we are..Bush or the story of New Guidance or old truth old bought and paid for Clinton ..there is a story of wonder.. did I just share that ..
Read this one book….continue to read ..think..so many others ..do not..for what it is worth ..maybe nothing.
Regarding investing… this is the end spin..if you believe ..bullion.

this was not edit..it is call free thinking.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Dec 29, 2014) – Bayfield Ventures Corp. (TSX VENTURE:BYV)(OTC PINK:BYVVF)(B4N.F) is pleased to announce that at a special meeting (the “Meeting”) of the shareholders of Bayfield Ventures Corp. (“Bayfield”) held on December 29, 2014, shareholders of Bayfield (the “Bayfield Shareholders”) approved the previously announced acquisition by New Gold Inc. (NGD.TO) (NYSE MKT:NGD) (“New Gold”) of all of the outstanding common shares of Bayfield by way of a plan of arrangement (the “Arrangement”).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bayfield-shareholders-approve-acquisition-gold-173116342.html

Folks we all wander in the desert of gold and silver ( what a history and story)..we read for guidance ,this way and that…we think and question? The essential point is we all Know that reality sink with the wisdom, of the analogy, of the titanic ( 2007-2008) long ago. The real delusion of thinking something is about to become better is very ,delusional. Old Goldrunner and I were knowledgeable about the end and debated..or frankly argued about the pro or cons of facing ..the forces at work.. if we were to see.

Regarding Armstrong and Fully’s walking/controlling with THE charts..hum..some may see thru the fog of walk this way and survive. Some may think old frostbite..and many others were old in our thinking.
Point ..it is about to become a new year. Reflecting on all those years recently passed, where in face time the events of 9/11, Iraq.WMD, .the list is too long…we never stood then. Here we are all in a complete spiral of corruption. Mr. copper, i would suggest you are my same time age…in the days of standing each morning pledging to the flag each morning.( even a Lord’s prayer)..in the early sixties hiding under our wooden desks as protection from the Cuba missile..story, smile..

Just in summation, I would suggest the Americas were the best last chance of freedom from the old world tribe. History, and i smile.
I could continue…we ( the old family) left the old world in desperation ..casted of family and no future, , religion, social future, death, The tribe needed , only a correct number of subjects, the list…endless..i am certain the early folk could best describe this better than I. WHY THEY LEFT or were force to leave. The colonies in Australia..etc etc.
Here we find ourselves ..completely lost in the old journey. It would appear they have won. I am certain some may have no understanding what I just wrote..hence the Frostbite. smile.
To suggestion 2015 will change?..yes..the masters have..the day. There really are few end points to their control..
I have one hope..

and there is the edit of others,, smile..it is sad.. you must wonder the editors…

Try again phone freezing up.

I found this last night after looking for it for awhile. Apparently Armstrong wasn’t aware of the housing crisis or what the banks were doing in 07 already. He was bullish for 08. However he was locked up so guessing information was limited but you could already smell the housing halt in the air. I knew then it was too late for housing.

Some things you just can’t predict with total accuracy. He did not predict the crash of 08 or the economic meltdown:
For those that missed my post on Mr. Dev’s post here it is…

Next major low should come by June 18, 2011 which is Martin Armstrong’s next 8.6 yr. pi cycle low…the last one was on Nov.8 , 2002. 2008 could give one final up move.

I found this about Martin Armstrong written by MoneyWeek last March just after the market crashed on his pi cycle. Armstrong is in prison until 2012 – the Supreme Court just rejected his lawyer’s appeal for credit from the 7 yrs contempt of court served being applied to his current 5 yr. sentence. (he has been in prison since 2000), the author of this article must have interviewed him in prison to get this more current information.

From MoneyWeek…
“What the pi-cycle model predicts now
Recent events in the world’s stockmarkets show the stunning accuracy with which Armstrong’s pi-cycle model can forecast markets, with investors panicking right on cue on 27 February. But what stage of Armstrong’s 8.6-year cycle are markets at now, and what does he forecast for the years ahead?

According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.”

This chart shows the force of the down moves are much greater now than recent years, however this latest down is showing less money flow than August’s so there may be some intermediate term hope for da bulls. I also note what Don Wolanchuk has posted on the commercials being bullish now so 2008 may be better.
Reduced: 28% of original size [ 850 x 668 ] – Click to view full image
This post has been edited by Russ: Nov 11 2007, 11:26 AM
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=79147

Or 2015 could be another extension of the PMs going no where. I’m not even trying to buy for a bounce because they aren’t lasting long enough for the tax headaches Right now.

I have plenty of near worthless shares in my account so I know exactly how you feel. It wouldn’t be hard for 2015 to be a better year than 14. Who knows maybe we’ll even see some profits.

Cheers

 I know nothing!

Not a great way to end the year, as San Gold and U.S. Silver and Gold remain two of my significant PM equity holdings, when expressed in terms of number of shares held; they are not a very significant proportion of our portfolio anymore when expressed in terms of current market value. I have no other comments about these two holdings, except to say that mistakes hurt. Cheers. Equiz.

Not even very far in the background, there is wreckage everywhere as events spin out of the pretense of control. Surely something is up in the Mordor of derivatives, that unregulated shadowland of counterparty subterfuge where promises are made with no possibility or intention of ever being kept. You can’t have currencies crashing in more than a handful of significant countries, and interest rates ululating, without a lot of slippage among the swaps. My guess is that a lot of things have busted wide open there, and we just don’t know about it yet, like fissures working deep below the surface around a caldera.

This Federal Reserve is running on the final fumes of its credibility. Counsel “patience” as it might, other institutions and the people running them may run out of patience with it and start running for cover. When currencies catch fire, even a run on the bank becomes an exercise in futility. The rot is spreading from the margins to the center. In a world of oxidizing paper obligations, the paper dollar is hardly a fortress but more like a stack of empty foil-wrapped boxes displayed in the concourse of a shopping mall scheduled for closure as soon as the holiday is concluded. Maybe some wise-ass kid will just torch it. The security guard is still awaiting his previous paycheck and is out drinking by the dumpster.

It will be at least a couple of months before the Fed dares to start “printing” again and a lot can happen before it does. If and when it does resume QE — and it will be sorely tempted — all its credibility will finally be lost. What an opportunity for another country, say a country with an already foundering currency, to dare introduce money partially backed by gold. Could happen. That hypothetical nation may be one with, say, substantial oil reserves, something that even an economically depressed global industrial economy desperately needs. That hypothetical nation may be one that is very weary of being jerked around by the USA, with our augerers and vizeers, and haircuts-in-search-of-brains.

Merry Christmas everyone and, this dwindling year, be especially careful what you wish for.

If Wishes Were Loaves and Fishes

rates falling……yup

Pm’s falling….yup

Oil falling…..Yup

Dollar strong….no only Flat.

SM riseing…..Yup.

Any bets that we don’t see record new Hi’s in the SM on New Year’s Eve…it’s all so perfect.

Dead on.

Time to turn the tables on these ingrates. They’ve been given preference in hiring, college admissions, federal jobs, tax breaks, you name it – for decades. Time to shut it all down.

Along with multiple govvy agencies, of course!!!

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/048131_censored_news_2014_alternative_media.html#ixzz3NIoq7SZF

It’s gonna be one of those days…I’m outa here…may go visit my “niece”….

Miners extremely oversold as tax loss selling ends

The top mining mergers and acquisitions of 2014

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/29/us-ukraine-crisis-poroshenko-idUSKBN0K70VD20141229