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I found this last night after looking for it for awhile. Apparently Armstrong wasn’t aware of the housing crisis or what the banks were doing in 07 already. He was bullish for 08. However he was locked up so guessing information was limited but you could already smell the housing halt in the air. I knew then it was too late for housing.
Some things you just can’t predict with total accuracy. He did not predict the crash of 08 or the economic meltdown:
For those that missed my post on Mr. Dev’s post here it is…
Next major low should come by June 18, 2011 which is Martin Armstrong’s next 8.6 yr. pi cycle low…the last one was on Nov.8 , 2002. 2008 could give one final up move.
I found this about Martin Armstrong written by MoneyWeek last March just after the market crashed on his pi cycle. Armstrong is in prison until 2012 – the Supreme Court just rejected his lawyer’s appeal for credit from the 7 yrs contempt of court served being applied to his current 5 yr. sentence. (he has been in prison since 2000), the author of this article must have interviewed him in prison to get this more current information.
From MoneyWeek…
“What the pi-cycle model predicts now
Recent events in the world’s stockmarkets show the stunning accuracy with which Armstrong’s pi-cycle model can forecast markets, with investors panicking right on cue on 27 February. But what stage of Armstrong’s 8.6-year cycle are markets at now, and what does he forecast for the years ahead?
According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.”
This chart shows the force of the down moves are much greater now than recent years, however this latest down is showing less money flow than August’s so there may be some intermediate term hope for da bulls. I also note what Don Wolanchuk has posted on the commercials being bullish now so 2008 may be better.
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This post has been edited by Russ: Nov 11 2007, 11:26 AM
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