OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viun7H9ctys

Any significant break below that will be bad news. I will still be dollar-cost-averaging to $350 if necessary.

keep on stacking!

Things may get far worse before they get better. I have no idea about the inflation/deflation thing but I don’t trust anybody’s paper so I have defaulted to phiz. Th worldwide debt repudiation ain’t going to be pretty.

rno

“Gold is poised for a massive short-covering rally, almost certainly the largest one in recent years given the record extremes of shorts that have to be bought back. This is super-bullish!”

Shorts in gold related vehicles of any kind – NEVER HAVE TO COVER

Hamilton is like every other promoter, horrible.

A cynical old friend of mine said:

“It’s always darkest just before it goes completely black!”

11 and three 3’s   911

Adam Hamilton

“Gold is poised for a massive short-covering rally, almost certainly the largest one in recent years given the record extremes of shorts that have to be bought back. This is super-bullish!”

Yet even facing such howling headwinds with everything stacked against it, gold still saw sharp short-covering rallies after American futures speculators’ shorts grew too excessive. This created a trading range of these positions in recent years as you can see in this chart, running from about 75k-contract support up to 150k-contract resistance. Speculators’ shorts returned to support multiple times in recent years.

And right after episodes when these leveraged downside bets on gold exceeded 150k contracts like they are at today’s record, major short covering soon ensued. This led to sharp gold rallies blasting 16.2% higher in 10 weeks on average. These are big gains anytime, let alone when everyone is hyper-bearish on gold. And since speculators’ gold-futures shorts are so epic today, the next short-covering rally will likely be huge.

Even since 2013 in these surreal Fed-distorted markets, speculators have bought to cover their total shorts down to 75k contracts several times. The last short-covering spree ended in early February 2015 at 70.4k contracts, a buying frenzy that catapulted gold 14.2% higher in just over 10 weeks. So it is very conservative to expect speculators to once again buy down their short positions to return back to 75k support.

From their current record extreme of 179.0i, it will require a staggering 104.0k of long-contract buying to return to 75k. And since each contract controls 100 ounces of gold, this collectively represents 323.5 metric tons of buying on short covering alone by this single group of traders! That is a colossal amount of gold buying in a short period of time, several months on the outside. Short covering soon feeds on itself.

Today at $1150 gold, each futures contract is worth $115,000. Yet the minimum maintenance margin per contract is now only $3750. So futures speculators can run leverage up near 31x, astoundingly risky. At such levels, a mere 3.3% gold rally would wipe out 100% of the capital they risked! So once gold starts moving, these speculators have to rapidly cover to avoid catastrophic losses. So they buy aggressively.

And their very short covering accelerates gold’s gains, putting pressure on the rest of the speculators who are not running minimum margin and maximum leverage. So they are soon forced to buy to cover too, putting even more upside pressure on the gold price. So once even a minor gold rally ignites a serious bout of short covering, it rarely stops until it has fully run its course. And today we are in for a massive one!

That 104k contracts of short covering necessary to return to recent years’ support of 75k again is the equivalent of 323.5 tonnes of gold. And it will all hit over several months or so. Let’s call it 3, since the average duration of short-covering frenzies in recent years is 10 weeks. That is 107.8t of additional gold demand monthly that doesn’t exist now. And according to the World Gold Council, that is wildly bullish.

The WGC’s latest figures showed average global investment demand in gold of 92.9t per month in the first quarter of 2015. So for the several months it takes to unfold, American futures speculators’ short covering alone will increase worldwide gold investment demand by an amazing 116%! This will fuel a sharp gold rally as always. At the recent-year average of 16.2%, gold would surge to $1335 in 10 weeks.

But I strongly suspect that gold’s imminent short-covering rally will be significantly larger coming from such extreme record levels of short selling. The bigger the short positions, the more buying is naturally required to unwind them back to reasonable levels. So instead of gold looking utterly hopeless today as everyone believes, it has an exceedingly-bullish setup. Major lows fueled by shorting are artificial and short-lived.

There are a couple more key observations from this gold chart before we move on to silver. Note that the gold price has had an incredibly-strong inverse correlation with American speculators’ total level of gold-futures shorts in recent years. When this short selling is temporarily adding futures supply, gold falls. And when it reverses into buying, gold rallies. Speculators’ shorting is literally the whole story on gold recently!

With investors still missing in action thanks to the Fed’s gross market distortions, speculators are ruling the roost. But provocatively, gold has been relatively resilient despite their extreme shorting this year. Even in the midst of its worst time of the year fundamentally in terms of seasonal demand spikes, the gold price hasn’t fallen below its early-November-2014 lows despite speculators’ futures shorting being much higher.

That means there are buyers out there absorbing this excessive gold-futures selling. Imagine how much this latent demand will explode once gold rallies enough to convince these hardcore contrarians that things are finally changing. Gold is poised for a massive short-covering rally, almost certainly the largest one in recent years given the record extremes of shorts that have to be bought back. This is super-bullish!

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1437149245.php

The massive shorts in the PMs can never be covered. They will continue to short paper PMs and the price will continue to drop until it all blows up. The lower the price of PMs when they claim force  majeure the better for them as they will settle in paper dollars and the holders of claims on bullion will be left standing watching the price of bullion rise!

Monsanto to take over MJ.

http://medicalmarijuana411.com/drug-maker-will-soon-hold-patent-on-thc-cbd-as-cancer-cures/

I owned Lexus LX400 since the first year for 15 years. Never once did I have a problem – EVER. When I took it in for maintenance they always gave me a loaner car and treated me like I was a king.

I’ve owned a Mustang, Taurus and a Suburban. They were all a problem. The Suburban was a lemon and I got a complete refund. This was back in the 80’s-90’s. Maybe they are better now, but I’ll never take the risk again. US automakers have done this to themselves.

I’m going to post an exchange I had with the webmaster of KWN. All I can say is WOW. If you think those guys give a rats ass about your financial well being you are mistaken. Out of the gates this guy was unbelievable.

every so often until he got pizzed off when they gave him a sub-compact ( he is 6foot four) for a loaner when the lincoln was in the shop.  He bought a lexus ( a hi class toyota). He has owned it for over 10 years and won’t trade it in.Unlike the ford, which he owned for two or three years at a time, the lexus is trouble free. He loves it and will never go back. I also know someone who was a sales manager for a GM dealership for 30 years and when he retired guess what he bought. A nissan! Lets hope success doesn’t get to Japanese carmakers and they become fat and lazy like GM did.

worse Car I ever had was Cadillac I bought in the 70,s followed by a Olds 98 ..after the motor mount fell off the Olds I had had enough ..Bought nothing but Toyota since  .Will not go back …as long as Thugs run the union and make the cars..

My Corolla gets 37mpg using ethanol in Virginia and as much as 40 mpg when I use Russian Gas (Lukoil).when Im in NJ..

The Corolla is 2003 and has never been in the dealers shop for repairs ,brakes lasted 80,000 miles as did Bridgestone tires .

I have had 3 Celicas and 4 corollas between the wife and I since the 70;s will buy nothing else..None of them had been to the dealers shop .

In fact when my son moved to California he bought my wifes corolla for $200 with 250,000 miles on it and drove it for two more years and only sold it because it wouldent pass environment pollution tests under new Cali inspection Laws ..

I still have a running debate with my son whose Ford gets 5 miles per gal less in Cal than identical car I rented in Va ..How does that protect the environment getting 5 mpg less to go the same mileage and with special formulated fuel costing $1 more per gallon …its nuts !

Hot money has been flowing into China Yuan appears to be topping and coupled with China Stock Market Peaks seems to confirm a Yuan TOP ..

Takin together with Lows in $Gold  The Seasonal Gold seems to be in REVERSE Mode where Prices of a Stock or Commodity get into a Reversal Year where former Tops are made in the Same months as LOWS instead of Tops .Therefore As the BAR charts show  Gold Bottom this year should be in August ! (Reversal Years happen usually after 4 normal years when extreme peaks are put in,but the turn Months remain the Same!) I believe Gold is in a REVERSAL YEAR so the Bottom should be in August …Why use China Currency ..thats where the action has been and trillions have been flowing there including $ ..China is the KEY  to US Gold and they have been buyers of Gold all along..with their incredable cash FLow .Now cash is turning and looking for a safe haven AND nothing is cheaper than Gold ,certainly no commodities that have all made tops earlier and are falling.witness OIL,Copper Iron Ore etc   The exception is GOLD….It cannot escape Chines eyes that are looking for a refuge ….!

I remember in the seventies going to a dealer to get a fuel pump for a pontiac (back then you had to go to a dealer to get most parts) and being charged an outrageous price. When I objected, they just laughed at me. I vowed then that I would never buy a GM product again. The worst car I have ever had was a ford LTD. I have a 2 year old rice burner that gets over 40 MPG ( thats 33MPG in us gallons) has all the power I need, fit and finish perfect. handles like a charm and not one thing has gone wrong with it. When I take it to the dealer they charge me $61 for a filter and oil change (I could do it myself for $50) plus they top up all my fluids and wash my car for me no extra charge. Why would I ever buy GM again?

In 1988 I bought a new 4WD Toyota pickup for 12,000. I have been driving that truck (it is my only vehicle) for 27 years, still on the original clutch, engine, brakes, and so on. I have replaced only the radiator and water pump in all those years.

Name me any American-made car at twice the price that will give me that kind of value.

I have read on Jim Stone that there are cars being made now, available elsewhere but not in the states, that get three to four times the MPG that we get here. We’re just not allowed to have them.

edit: And I am not ashamed!

Yes, it has popped for a day or 2 then given it all back and more

Gold rallies start on no news and leave everyone scratching their heads

Those rallies were, say, 22 to of 25 up days in a row —we haven’t seen one like that for 4 yrs–Heck, for the past few months we scarcely see G&S even print green for more that 5 minutes before selling claws the gain back

nugt is down 11.8% while Comex Aug gold is down one percent—

that is a bullish divergence I have seen a # of times before-and has preceded at least stabilization—limited dnside—and often a bounce…I dunno how we resolve this time…just sayin

Maybe if America would produce an economical high mileage precision machine like those you mentioned, rather than a piece of 5 year throwaway low mileage claptrap, Americans would be more inclined to buy their own.  Nothing accidental about what is happening in America IMO!!! All The Best to You Mr Copper, and I do enjoy your posts. ………..Silverngold

agree in principle-but we gotta keep in mind that most of the japanese and loran ones are made here now–providing americans with wages and localities with taxes–and why support GM-they are back stabbers-for 30-40 yrs they have been moving most production to canada mexico and other destinations

I’m wondering how much longer the global economy central planners (multinational corporations) will keep the dollar high. Since June 2014 now. They must have figured last June ’14, that the USA region was replenished enough, so that they could choke us off a while.

Strong dollar/lower others, makes us buy cheap, spend money but only on foreign production. At the same time, Europe Japan et al got the advantage, of selling high to Americans, importing American dollars to help them live. Its an entire welfare world now, causing welfare states here.

The global corporations need to be BOYCOTTED by Americans, but unfortunately, they are like a big dumb herd of wildebeest.

Note: Anybody driving an imported car, Honda, Toyota, VW, Volvo, BMW, etc etc etc was contributing money (paying taxes) to foreign nations to lift their living standards, and lower ours. YOU are part of the problem, and should be embarrassed driving one. YOU are a global citizen, NOT an American citizen, and should be ashamed.

The Gold price in Canadian $ is near  $1500.00 so the Canadian miners should be making money.

But the $US keeps chugging higher. Doesn’t the bible say in the last days vice will be virtue and virtue will be vice. I don’t even know why they bother with the comex. They should just post on kitco whatever they want the prices to be. Maybe they do!

SLV=Shares Silver Trust (SLV) –

14.23 — 0.12(0.83%) 1

NUGT===5.3167 –0.6933(11.54%) 12:19PM EDT