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For gold and silver investors, the primary Fed scenarios appear clear:
- Best but least likely – Fed tightening continues behind a global inflationary expansion
2. Worst – Back to 2015, Fed tightening, strong stock market and strong US dollar
3. High potential – Fed tightening is done, stock market declines, US dollar declines
According to the clearly defined trend lower in US Treasury bond yields and the declining US dollar in 2016, scenario 3 appears already in place. The key missing link has been the strong stock market. Scenarios often do not work out as planned, but as we approach a contentious election, if volatility in the US stock market picks up similar to January-February, gold and silver should receive the green-go to resume the rally. The indication from increasing gold and silver prices is they appear to have already voted. “
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-06-09/The-Unsustainable-Trend-Holding-Back-Gold.html