Loading ...I thank you for taking the time and provide the interesting info. All I can say about banks, is in my area there are simply way too many of them. Years ago there were waiting lines inside.
Nowadays, often, I’m the only one in the bank, and five to six employees doing nothing. When you walk in they immediately kiss ass and say “Welcome to Roslyn”. Between the high rents and labor costs, and they have to be losing money on many various branches. Internet probably helping to kill them.
Similar situation with retail stores. Just way too many of them also. Many changes going on. Transitions from the past to the future. From fantasy to reality. From emotion the practical.
The “dream” that John and Yoko were talking about, “a world that lives as one” I knew from the start, it was a bad objective to rush it in one generation. It would have happened naturally gradually over time, maybe 100-200 more years. Haste makes waste.
For over two years, I have maintained that the German government will be forced to nationalize Deutsche Bank. Recently, talk of nationalization is making the rounds in certain circles within Germany. Authorities are stalling, hoping that the financial system, overall, will “right itself” over time. This is nothing but a Robert Rubin style ‘extend and pretend’ strategy on steroids. When we get closer to Deutsche Bank imploding to the point of risking the trigger of a derivatives market cascade, Germany will announce nationalization plans. I expect to see this announcement when DB shares slip under $9 and are making their way to $5.
cont. http://thenewsdoctors.com/deutsche-bank-is-imploding-kranzler-and-dubin-look-ahead/
We saw this same trading with Enron, Bear Stearns and Lehman when those stocks approached $10. I was short and made a lot of money on Enron and Bear – and I held my shorts through rumor-driven bounces in the stock like the one propelling DB’s stock today.
This trading activity with the stock is designed to trigger aggressive short-cover buying which enables position-dumping by the big boys who are still heavily long DB stock. The rumor that drove DB stock over $13 was tweet from a French press agency which “confirmed” that the DB was near a settlement with the Justice Department for $5.4 billion instead of the original $14 billion levied. A short-while later the French press agency back-pedaled on the assertion.
The more relevant information to consider is the signal being flashed in the market for DB’s credit default swaps. The cost of insure DB’s junior bonds for one year surged to 625 basis points today. This inverted the “curve” for the cost to insure DB’s bonds, as the cost to insure the bonds for five years was 505 basis points. The same is true for one yr. vs. five yr. swaps on DB’s senior debt, which were trading at 270 basis points vs 241 basis points respectively: DB Stress Signal Reemerges – Bloomberg
A credit default swap the costs over 600 basis points to purchase is analogous to a triple-C rated U.S. corporate bond. Company’s with the “triple-hook” credit rating in the current insane financial system are semi- dead corpses with electric stimulation paddles being applied in an attempt restart the heart. These are bonds that have a greater than 70% chance of eventually defaulting. In other words, investors who are willing to pay over 600 basis points for one year of default protection on their DB junior bond position believe that the risk of DB defaulting in the next 12 months is exceptionally high.
If the German Government was not lurking in the background, these credit default swaps would be priced at well over 1000 basis points over the equivalent Treasury yield. On the other hand, DB CEO, John Cryan, stated on Friday that DB’s balance sheet is safer than at any point in the past two decades. That at least the third time DB liquidity rumors have been denied and we know what that means…
Mike Savage
Quick Update
Because of all the chatter around Deutsche Bank I thought it would be helpful to share something that I think may be important at this time.
Back in 2008 I was employed by Wachovia. Rumors had been swirling about the bank’s financial health but I had no reason to think that anything was amiss because there was always a note from upper management that said all was ok.
On a Friday afternoon the bank manager entered my office and asked a strange question. She asked if I had cash at home. At the time I kept very little cash at home – likely less than $1000.00. So I told her yeah- a little – why do you ask? She said “I am hearing rumors we may be closed for a few weeks. I suggest you get some cash out of the bank and into your house”.
On the following Monday there was a company-wide conference call from the CEO down to the part-time tellers that everyone had to attend. On that call we were assured that Wachovia had a fortress balance sheet and that there was no chance of needing a bailout. We were also assured that Wachovia would also always be a standalone entity.
Looking back, we may think that we were being misled at that time but I am pretty sure that we were not being misled but that even the people at the top didn’t understand the severity of the situation.
It was later in the week when a member of the board of directors bought 1 million shares of Wachovia stock at $10.00 per share- putting his money where his mouth was. This is why I don’t believe we were being intentionally misled. You don’t buy $10 million worth of stock during the week if you have any idea that Citigroup was going to buy the company for $1.00 per share on the following Sunday.
I believe that it is possible Wachovia was being used to bail out Citigroup. Later on, Wells Fargo stepped up and bought Wachovia out for $7.00 per share. Of course, Citigroup got over $2.5 trillion to bail them out from the Fed anyway. (Government Accountability Office)
Anyway, I believe it is important to keep your eyes open when so many are coming out and stating that all is ok. There is no reason to say anything if all really is ok. It is also interesting that many large investors are the ones that are the first withdrawing money from DB. Do they know something that we don’t know yet? Don’t kid yourself- they certainly could have some sort of advance warning and there would be nothing new about that in my opinion.
Deutsche Bank’s derivative book is reportedly 6 times the size of the Eurozone’s GDP. That may be too big to save. According to the IMF many other banks are at risk if DB were to become impaired. Below is a list of a few banks mentioned:
Bank of New York Mellon, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, State Street, Wells Fargo, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Santander, Soc Gen, Credit Agripole, Unicredit, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank (Just suspended dividends and are laying off 9000 employees), UBS, ING, RBS, Credit Suisse, UBS, Barclays, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Mitsubishi, Mizuho, Sumitumo. These are some of the systemically important banks- there are likely many more particularly in Italy and other Euro countries in particular.
Hopefully, because of what happened in the not too distant past this possible large problem can be averted. Just in case, however, I suggest you don’t waste any time in making any preparations you feel may be necessary to protect yourselves and your families. If the people at the top of Wachovia’s banking hierarchy couldn’t tell that the conditions were present for a financial implosion at their own firm why should we listen to “experts” who are on the outside looking in on the financial game shows?
It would be better to be prepared for a non-event or weeks or months early in planning than a moment late.- BE PREPARED!
Stawks sold of in the last ten minutes. Watch some rumor come out Monday that there is no deal with the DOJ on DB. DB will get crushed and stawks will get killed. VIX should have been hit harder.
Course, nothing matters to gold….until it does…
Scum scared the Polls shitless, by trashing DB….so they chickened out and the game goes on and we all know who is Boss.
Lloyd will be signing off on any and all excess over the weekend…it’s party, party time folks and Lloyd is paying..
No my vol was NYSE…I was quickly looking at a 5 yr chart and that does show @ 10 Mill /week…but I have over 171 million this week already…
I would negotiate the 14 Billion fine on DB in EXCHANGE for an Equity STAKE in DB….Then I would take possession of the GOLD mine Holdings it has and spin -off the rest to the German Govvy ….But I doubt Obummer knows anything about making money for America ! Its just BUSINESS ,,,,,there going to go bust anyhow ,they might as well go BIG ! Why give a Rats ass for Merkle anyhoo ..Just look at the trouble she started ! Refugees cost billions ,we might as well make her pay for it. We should have grabbed IRAQ oil to pay for that WAR of trillions ,now we should make Merkle pay for her Stupidity ! Stupid bitch from E.Germany communist mentality …nothin but trouble!
But today it had done 65 mill shares–or 10 times the daily volume–that’s awesome enough-was your volume figure on the London exchange?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DB/?p=DB
We have seen this movie many times since 2009…all problems shrugged off..I should have known.
The following is a portion from a Bloomberg piece: “In August, domestic heavy-truck sales fell 29 percent from the same period of 2015, the weakest month in well over three years. Any drop that dramatic could always be an anomaly, but heavy-truck sales have been slipping for two years. Broad weakness in this category has historically been a reliable hint that a recession is on its way.
The SPREAD is getting very narrow and will soon surpass GOLD ,but the rate of change surpasses it !
DB is on cause to stage a weekly upside reversal on NYSE, it trades on Av @ 10 million shares/week…so far it has done near 170 million this week…it is gonna be a monster reversal in TA terms. !!!!!!
Not a real cheery future we’re looking at. At least if you know what’s likely to come you can make some preparations.
I hear S. Chile is nice this time of year.
If the Polls don’t start fixing the banks, as in Glass Steagal, then they too will be thrown out and they have very little time, so I doubt it will happen until the whole lot comes down.
I have a mate who is close to some Banksters and he tells me they are all hanging on in the hope they get their big pay day or to retirement, but all are desperate, as they know their banks are loseing hand over fist, as the salaries are eating up what capital is left…all these huge redundancies are low pay branch workers, the big bucks traders/Investment idiots are still being kept on, in the hope they will somehow bring back the good times….so the entire western world’s financial system is a “Hope Trade”…and we all know how Hope trades work out.
I’d love to see some really big players standing for delivery at crimex. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t happen soon.
The sooner that cesspool shuts down the better!
That’s exactly right, the Big Banks are just speculators with public money. The countries involved have to bail them out if they go BK … and the company officers will still collect their $hundreds of millions in bonuses. These bastards will continue to loot their respective countries until there is real consequences for their actions. It’ll continue until the people in charge start going to prison … and it won’t be soon enough!
Bring back Glass Steagall!
New Scum tactic, put out rumour, attribute it to Frogs, who are all still at lunch and too pissed to confirm/deny…then buy hell out of DB…Algo’s jump on and in no time shorts running…..easy.
she also has to find loads more dosh for the EU, now Brexit is gonna happen…
Well, it ain’t me and its not you. Hedge funds are bailing and the big banks aren’t that stupid, imho. Who is left to buy? Central Banks.. that is who.
If those PM shareholdings are for the bank, which they are, then that just proves it is nothing but a hedge fund, punting with depositor money, hopeing to be back stopped by German taxpayers….which is what all the Bankster banks are. Until they are closed down, tdys insanity will continue.
I see today’s action just confirming to anyone sane, that the Scum have almost lost control, there is nothing out there made of paper that has any value, as the crooks will make anything up and sign anything, if it will save their sorry arses.
Their primary aim is to hold it together till each days close…..what a system.
Ps love the idea that French journo’s at AFP are reporting that DB is saved…this is a Friday and the ones still conscious after lunching/debauching all afternoon, are incapable of sentient thought !!!!!!!!
