Is a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) a good idea for the USA?
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Does it involve Smurfs?
http://www.freedomwatchusa.org/pdf/170321-Final%20Whistleblower%20Letter.pdf
This is a tough swamp to drain. No wonder they were so afraid of Trump
Dead Men Walking Vis-à-vis The Silver Price?
Ted Butler
March 23, 2017
The narrative thus far – after decades of allowing themselves to be led in and out of COMEX silver futures contracts by their commercial counterparties, several managed money traders appear to have woken up to the fact they’ve been duped all along. A key component of the silver manipulation for the past 30 years has been the knee-jerk and mechanical reaction of the managed money traders to collectively sell whenever the commercials rigged prices lower beyond certain moving averages. Ditto for buying on rising prices.
The dependability of the managed money technical funds to obey commercially rigged price signals made the funds the true enablers of the manipulation. The commercials, mostly domestic and foreign banks, made their profits by getting the technical funds to buy high and sell low. Without the technical funds to maneuver at will, the commercials would have little reason to prolong the silver manipulation.
So obvious had become the continued whipsawing of the managed money traders by the commercials that a near-universal question emerged – “why are these technical funds engaging it such a bizarre and harmful (to their investors) game?” I’ve heard from more than one reader that there must be some kind of collusion between the technical funds and the commercials, featuring under the table payments to the technical funds by the commercials to continue deliberately losing. While I understand and empathize with the logic of such an explanation, given the nearly inexplicable behavior of the technical funds, I don’t see such collusion, as I’ve tried to explain over the years. I certainly see collusion, just not on the part of managed money traders to deliberately lose.
Nowhere is the price influence of the continuing contest between the managed money traders and the commercials more pronounced than it is in COMEX silver. That’s what led me to conclude the price of silver was manipulated more than 30 years ago. And while it is now true that this same price influence has come to infect just about all our markets, silver still maintains a unique role as being the most manipulated market of all. Not just because it was the first such market to be manipulated by futures positioning, but that has something to do with it. Being first means that silver has been manipulated in this manner for far longer than any other market and, as such, its price is necessarily more artificial. More to the point is that the objective relative measures involving actual production and consumption and real world supplies always feature silver at a much different level than any other commodity.
So extreme has become the size of the derivatives trade in silver compared to actual metal in the world and the fact that it has lasted so long (decades) that perhaps it’s no great surprise that, if the managed money traders were ever going to wake up to the realization they were being gamed; then they would likely first see it in silver. Should the managed money traders come to such a realization and radically alter their behavior, then there should be strong signs indicating such a change. Those strong signs abound and have been discussed on these pages.
First came the start of a buildup in core non-technical fund managed money long positions in COMEX silver, starting around three years ago. I define these positions as not being governed by price change, meaning such longs are not sold on price selloffs and, therefore, are not technical in nature. In simple terms, the core long position is the amount of long positions remaining after significant price declines. From the time the COT data started tracking managed money traders around 2009 until the fall of 2013, the long position of managed money traders in COMEX silver rarely fell below the 20,000 contract level at the depths of price declines. Again, what’s remaining long in the managed money category at the end of significant silver price declines is the core non-technical fund long position. For the rest, go to:
http://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/dead-men-walking-vis-à-vis-silver-price
Bonds…
If I don’t like stocks, what about bonds. While short-term rates have been moving higher, longer-term rates have been trading in a narrow trading range for quite some time, frustrating both bulls and bears. Bonds are often said to perform well when stock prices plunge, but don’t count on it: first, even the historic correlation is not stable. But more importantly, when we talk with investors, many of them have been reaching for yield. We see sophisticated investors, including institutional investors, provide direct lending services to a variety of groups. What they all have in common is that yields are higher than what you would get in a traditional bond investment. While the pitches for those investments are compelling, it doesn’t change the fact that high yield investments, in our analysis, tend to be more correlated with risk assets, i.e. with equities, especially in an equity bear market. Differently said: don’t call yourself diversified if your portfolio consists of stocks and high yielding junk bonds. I gather that readers investing in such bonds think it doesn’t affect them; let me try to caution them that some master-limited partnership investments in the oil sector didn’t work out so well, either.
Gold…
I have argued for some time that the main competitor to the price of gold is cash that pays a high real rate of return. That is, if investors get compensated for holding cash, they may not have the need for a brick that has no income and costs a bit to hold.
After the election, we believe the price of gold came down as the market priced in higher real interest rates in anticipation of lower regulations. We indicated that this euphoria will cede to realism, meaning that regulations might not be cut quite as much. We also suggested that any fiscal stimulus on the backdrop of low employment may be inflationary. That is, expectations of higher real rates might be replaced with expectations of higher nominal rates; net, bonds might not change all that much, but the price of gold may well rise in that environment.
Add the Fed to the picture, having raised rates twice now since the election. We have argued that the Fed is and continues to be ‘behind the curve,’ i.e. is raising rates more slowly than inflationary pressures are building. We believe the Fed is petrified that they might have to go down back to QE when the next recession comes and, as a result, has been very slow in raising rates. Indeed, we believe the Fed will only raise rates if the market delivers a rate hike on a silver platter, i.e. the markets are “behaving” (no taper tantrum). As such, let me make this prediction: if the S&P 500 is up 20% from current levels this October, odds are we will get more rate hikes than are currently priced in; conversely, if the S&P 500 is down 20% from current levels this October, odds are we will get fewer rate hikes than are currently priced in. If you are rolling your eyes that this isn’t too ingenious, I would like to remind readers that this isn’t supposed to be the yard stick the Fed should be using. We believe the Fed is a hostage of the market. Paraphrasing a former Fed official who shall remain unnamed, he indicated to me that the Fed wouldn’t care how the S&P reacts to an FOMC decision, unless, they created a bubble.
The Dollar…
What about the greenback? The dollar index (DXY) was up four years in a row. Year-to-date, however, the index is down despite the recent rate hikes. It shows that everything is relative to what is priced in already. A key reason we believe the dollar may have seen its peak is because of the Fed’s unwillingness to get ‘ahead of the curve’. Not with Janet Yellen, at least. Her term as Chair is running out next January; we wouldn’t be surprised if she is replaced with Kevin Warsh. He was a Fed governor during the financial crisis; he has since published a variety of OpEds, criticizing the Fed. He has also been on one of President Trump’s economic round tables. If he indeed succeeds Yellen (there are other names being mentioned; we just happen to think that at this stage, he best fits the profile of what Trump may be looking for), he has indicated that the reason why Fed officials are appointed for many years is so they don’t have to worry how markets react to policy decisions. That’s a stoic attitude, but reality (called “deteriorating financial conditions”) may well change his mind should he become Fed Chair and try to raise rates more aggressively.
Aside from real interest rates, when it comes to the dollar, it is worth paying attention to trade policy. So-called experts had predicted a 20% surge in the dollar based on the “border adjustment tax” in the GOP House tax plan. Except that surge hasn’t happened. Maybe the plan is dead. Maybe the plan’s market impact will be different. Our take is: if you introduce barriers to trade, we believe currencies of countries with current account deficits tend to suffer. The greenback qualifies, and the recent decline coincides with more protectionist talk coming from the Trump administration.
With Trump in office, establishment elites do have a perfect opportunity to sow fiscal chaos and scapegoat conservatives in the process.
I realize we have seen this many times in the past eight years under the Obama administration; extreme media hype over possible conflict between Republicans and Democrats in extending the ongoing debt ceiling problem for another couple of months or another couple of years. In every instance, Republicans feigned attempts to reduce government spending and then rolled over to extend. The entire fight was purely theatrical and likely meant to distract the public.
However, in this instance, certain elements are very different.
With the deadline of March 15th crossed, the clock is ticking on remaining funds and “extraordinary measures” designed to stretch the federal budget until a vote on a debt ceiling extension can take place. Funds are predicted to last perhaps until this fall. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, a Goldman Sachs alumni, has of course asked congress for a quick vote to raise the ceiling. This is rather counter to Donald Trump’s original position that constant national debt increases are “embarrassing” to Republicans.
Given, it is not Trump’s fault that he inherits the most massively inflated liability bubble in U.S. history after Barack Obama nearly doubled the national debt during his tenure (an incredible feat, to be sure). But, this does not change the reality that the U.S. is far beyond its means to balance the budget or maintain the current level of spending. And, I would remind everyone that the official debt does not even including the trillions in ongoing costs associated with entitlement programs or social security.
With U.S. debt at a breaking point, it would seem prudent to institute considerable spending cuts. Of course, where those cuts are applied may become the excuse needed to drive the debt ceiling debate into crisis this time around.
I am not at all surprised that Democratic senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has recently vowed to throw the debt ceiling talks into disarray if Trump continues to pursue a rollback of Obamacare, the building of the southern border wall, or the defunding of Planned Parenthood. Schumer has specifically warned of a government shutdown designed to prevent the Trump administration from instituting such policies.
So, you can see why this particular debt ceiling fiasco might be different. With Trump in office, establishment elites do have a perfect opportunity to sow fiscal chaos and scapegoat conservatives in the process. Whether they will follow through or not remains to be seen…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-24/watch-these-geopolitical-flashpoints-carefully
If the raising of the debt ceiling stalls and the government shutdown looks like it will drag out for a long time—and-on a separate matter–tax reform looks unlikely to pass in 2017…and if Trumps agenda appears to be failing…then maybe the $ and the stock mkt would start falling…and haven’t we heard for a longtime that “they” want to crash the stock mkt and economy under Trumps watch–[don’t ask me who “they” are cause I dunno]-if all that comes to pass, maybe gold might make a run…as faith in banks and the financial system is questioned. I do not expect a repeat of golds performance like in 2008-when gold collapsed along with paper.
Remember the Koch bros. hate Trumps guts–and they are the real power behind the throne in America via their ALEC entity—and they may want to sabotage his presidency.
In a last-minute effort to sink the Republican health care bill, a powerful network of conservative donors said Wednesday it would create a new fund for Republican 2018 reelection races — but they’ll only open it up to GOPers who vote against the bill.
The advocacy groups helmed by Charles and David Koch have unveiled a new pool of money for advertisements, field programs and mailings that would exclude those who vote for the health care bill they oppose on Thursday. The effort, which they described as worth millions of dollars, is an explicit warning to on-the-fence Republicans from one of the most influential players in electoral politics not to cross them.
The Koch-aligned networks oppose the bill because they think it does not do enough to scale back former President Barack Obama’s health care policies.
The KOCH bros rule America–and quite frankly I’m glad–I prefer them to the Nazi-like Left-like Sanders-Hillary–and that black muslim who almost became head of the democratic party–or Schemer–or Pocahontas–ya catch my drift? SEE my next post
AUGUST 1-8, 2011 ISSUE
ALEC Exposed: The Koch Connection
Untold sums of cash poured into ALEC by Charles and David Koch have been an effective investment in advancing their worldview.
By Lisa GravesJULY 12, 2011
This article is part of a Nation series exposing the American Legislative Exchange Council, in collaboration with the Center For Media and Democracy. John Nichols introduces the series.
Hundreds of ALEC’s model bills and resolutions bear traces of Koch DNA: raw ideas that were once at the fringes but that have been carved into “mainstream” policy through the wealth and will of Charles and David Koch. Of all the Kochs’ investments in right-wing organizations, ALEC provides some of the best returns: it gives the Kochs a way to make their brand of free-market fundamentalism legally binding.
No one knows how much the Kochs have given ALEC in total, but the amount likely exceeds $1 million—not including a half-million loaned to ALEC when the group was floundering. ALEC gave the Kochs its Adam Smith Free Enterprise Award, and Koch Industries has been one of the select members of ALEC’s corporate board for almost twenty years. The company’s top lobbyist was once ALEC’s chairman. As a result, the Kochs have shaped legislation touching every state in the country. Like ideological venture capitalists, the Kochs have used ALEC as a way to invest in radical ideas and fertilize them with tons of cash.
It’s generally on the third Friday less it’s a Holiday then Thurs. Heres a calendar.
http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
