A lot of my information and confidence about what is going on in the ME comes from Thomas Wictor, whom I have recommended to you twice.
Here is his page: https://twitter.com/ThomasWictor/with_replies
I read his stuff daily, and it gives me great peace of mind. I wanted you to be able to feel peace of mind too 🙂
Moggy objected to Wictor because he sometimes gets infuriated at people and blows them off. That is true. He’s a salty old curmudgeon, and doesn’t suffer fools lightly. But I don’t read him to understand internet etiquette. I read him because he has accurate, in-depth understanding of weapons, war history, the Middle East. He’s not getting his information from “sources”, but from many years of researching weapons, and watching/analyzing hundreds of hours of combat video. And when he speculates, I trust him more than any of the other writers/personalities/pundits, who increasingly seem only concerned with clicks and $. (I’m speaking here of people like Cernovitch, Hodges, Krieger and the like.)