OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

“Finders, Keepers” is the Easter rule!  🙂

But maybe it was intended for you.  Damn thing is filled with chocolate!   Like the market… all flash, no cash.

If calories were dollars… hoo boy!

NOTHING except FIRE YELLIIN if she raises RATES !  then let a Computer run the FED and base RATES on what the Market Place signals are proper Rates with a Rate setting mechanism that everyone knows in advance .One that is predictable  and does not give favoritism to anybody that wants to bribe to get advance knowledge .That means get Politics out of the Fed Rate setting business …..and financial planners can have predictability about future Rates ..because everybody can calculate the same numbers. The FED is a Bribery system set up to favor the Bankster FED Members who conceal their decisions from the public for five years ..except to their members. the Banksters.

Trump can fix that problem  ! lets see if he choses to do it ! Thats why the Political infighting is going on right Now for his attention..

The stakes are BIG.!   as big as SYRIA Politics !  Its always about the money ,and corruption is its cousin ……Thats why I own GOLD !

They already did it again. They raised rates after 1971 to a 21% prime around 1980, and caused a 20 year deflation or depression in commodities, and an invisible stealth depression in the US economy 1975 to 2008. Depression covered over with gov’t spending and occupation creation to fill “regulation” and “environment” and “global warming” jobs.

re part,

“In his speech above, future Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that, by raising interest rates, the Fed triggered the stock market crash of 1929, which heralded in the Great Depression.”

comment: WRONG WRONG WRONG. The increase in credit and money supply after 1913, to finance WW I, caused over expansion, and over capacity etc, leading to the higher rates intended to quench that situation.

Higher rates and protectionism was the RESULT, not the cause,

GPL, .40 cents Jan 16, 2016, then $2.25 May 2nd ’16, a whopping 460%. Today? $1.40, still up 250% from Jan 2016. I just might buy a small amount soon, and ladder up if it starts back up.

99 % of the time so far, if u r just day trading, or holding for a few days, then JNUG etc are fine.

Where they fall apart is if u hold ’em, as u have no idea what ur holding, or what may come round the corner…The prospectus is riddled with caveats, not the least of which, is there is absolutely no guarantee they will reflect 3 times the underlying…they could go 10 times against and be legally covered !!!!

A long time ago Jim Dines said the ETFs would cause higher volatility. Because of them, he said the next general market correction should be very sudden and deep. Opposite in a bull mkt. Think about the PMs in first half 2016. STRAIGHT UP!! I was calling it a reverse crash. Many miners like AG went from $2 to $20. So now down to $10.

Parts:

As mentioned, the first ETF (the S&P SPDR) began trading on Jan. 1, 1993. This fund currently has over $86 billion in assets under management and trades a quarter-billion shares on an average day.

While ETFs do offer very convenient and affordable exposure to a huge range of markets and investment categories, they are also increasingly blamed as sources of additional volatility in the markets. This criticism is unlikely to slow their growth considerably, though, and it seems probable that the importance and influence of these instruments is only going to grow in the coming years.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/12/brief-history-exchange-traded-funds.asp

I’m no chart pro, but looking further back on that chart, it looks like, every time the price  gets too far below (or above) both lines, the direction changes. Look at that high point, end of Feb. Waiting for the lines to cross, selling out 5-6 days later, a much lower price. And today, the price is WAY WAY below both lines.

Today? Waiting for blue line to cross the red may take 5-6 days of higher prices. Waiting provides a safer bet yes. I myself don’t trust charts because things that happen or things said, often move the numbers. Remember the Brexit news? And Trump news? Geez. rates higher stocks higher, gold a lot lower etc. It was an enormous distortion or interruption of the Gold bull market that re-started Dec 2015.

We were fine between Aug and Nov and suddenly we all got dunked. Gold now finally back up to November ’16. A 5 month dunking.

I agree with that. That second eye-wall of the storm is getting close. First eye-wall being 2008. Accumulation of central planning error over 100 years is catching up to them.

Floridagold is a smart guy and has done we’ll for himself.

Really weird day. I get the feeling this is a shakeout before a big move because it certainly makes no sense whatsoever.

Something big is coming…

So far this year JNUG/JDST have served me very well. In fact, the very leverage that makes them so dangerous is exactly what has worked out in my favor most days. Jnug has added to the profits on days gold and silver (XAU/HUI) went up, and protected my core holdings on days gold and silver went down. Enough so that I am about to take some JNUG/JDST profits and pick up a monster box of car parts next week. Moving paper into physical is always a sensible idea.

I do not have to like the paper games, just hopefully understand them better to book some profits. What the folks posted at the Oasis over the weekend has helped me understand, at least in part, what the hell is going on. My job is to make a profit from their games.

In any event, its a tough row to hoe. Stack em as you can.

Best to you, Farmboy

Much as I hate to admit it, that rascal Floridagold may be on to something. I use a different time frame than he does in the charts, but so far, he has helped keep me from losing too much in the trading account. And then of course, there is this GDXJ thing still on going. I’m guessing that GPL is part of the GDXJ index ??

I like GPL, but gonna wait for the blue line to cross above the red line before picking up anymore.

Apparently, whatever is going on with the GDXJ is continuing today, I have some JDST as a ‘cover’, which is probably a good thing since gold and silver are up, dollar down, and yet HUI/XAU barely holding in the green. Its all nuts if you ask me. Nuts enough that if someone offered to plant my butt on some Afghan mtn top and paid me $40,000 per, I would think seriously about the offer. 🙂 Course, now, they would have to throw in a few cases of Beenie Weenies and ten pounds of coffee to keep me nourished. lol

Just saying….LOL

Hangin In and Hangin On, Best, Farmboy

I’m with deer on this one it seems they are trying to make it impossible/ too painful to own the juniors and using this GDXJ scam to drive holders out.

This is pretty blatant action in the pm’s with the USD getting hammered.

Re Juniors

Agree bizarre…but I think we can put it down to JNUG/GDXJ…if they are going to rebalance to the tune of 3 billion, then as Goldie says mny will short in front…..plus I am sure the scum are selling the shares via the ETF’s hence the constant GDX seller of recent days..

I hope JNUG blows up…but even then I don’t trust the bums to buy Dollar for Dollar in say GDX.

But this beat down in the mining stocks is all part of the propaganda machine. Keep as many as possible continually thinking that mining stocks are BAD investments.

To see the relentless underperformance of the juniors. GPL has been one of my best performing juniors and has been down and out for the last couple of weeks. MUX going nowhere.

Flat bizarre.

Great points especially on the rebalancing….had not heard that…Seems the problem they have is sticking a triple leverage etf JNUG on such a small sector, value wise, while having to stay below 20 %.

Also the existing volatility is more than enough in the juniors…going triple is insane.

Can’t leave that info out to you guys with change in portfolio and sell off. Too bad I don’t know what they’re gonna buy lol I suppose you could short it before June although risky and wonder if it will buy the same shares as GDX so go long ” temp” for the gains if it even reflects but not betting on it. It’s also or Maddog that their doing fails to deliver but don’t know if it’s a suspicion comment. That even if they did buy what GDX has Id it would affect the pog. Im just guarded because last move the miners about reached their old highs which caused a expected reaction getting to big to fast but my concern that the metal Gold WASNT reaching its old highs with it  which was to me a red flag to me.  I don’t wait for gold to go up to say a target someone dreamed up but just see the trend. Like catching a wave lol I don’t short maybe I should so with is volatility you can make money both way because in effect I do wait till the next move. Now gonna watch to see if the reverse is happening, tto last run up, Phyz  goes up like now but what about the shares. This sector is so messed up, in so many ways.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/jnug/premarket

check the bottom of that Golden Egg and see if its doesn’t say, ” For Farmboy”.  🙂

Good Morning to All, and Many Thanks for the comments on Jnug and GDXJ over the weekend. Increased my understanding of what happened last Thursday and provided much needed insight into the paper game(s) involved.

Great bunch of guys and gals we have around here !

Let me grab another coffee and will get my trading face on and ready to start a new week. Best and Good Luck to everyone, Farmboy

Thanks for the GDXJ, JNUG rundown. It helps to make sense of the constant underperformance.

Pretty scary stuff if you’re holding miners.

USD getting hit this am but no help. Looks like the scum will hold the line just below $1290, to keep a breakout from happening.

On top of that, GDXJ will be making a massive and sure-to-be-messy portfolio reallocation in June. According to BMO Capital Markets’ research, GDXJ will add roughly 18 new component names in June. BMO suggests that GDXJ will sell more than half of its current holdings – roughly $3 billion worth – in order to fund the new positions.
This is a tragedy for ETF holders. For one, you are hit with significant tax consequences of an ETF engaging in such a high rate of portfolio turnover. Additionally, arbitrage traders are able to take advantage of forced shifts in ETF positioning by buying the new additions and shorting the deletions. With GDXJ having such huge positions, it makes it an easy target for algo-trading shops.
For investors interested in gold juniors, unless you have a very small amount of capital, it’s probably better for most people to buy four or five good junior miners within the industry rather than buying this increasingly defective ETF. If you ditch the ETF, the 0.52% expense ratio that you save gives you $52/year to cover trading costs on an investment of $10,000; that should be plenty for maintaining a small gold mining juniors basket of your own.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062650-big-gold-mining-juniors-etf-shows-cracks-indexing-model

To offer some insights…

JNUG/JDST are 3x derrivatives of GDXJ. NUGT/DUST are 3x derrivatives of GDX. At ‘this’ level these leveraged ETF’s don’t mix so that specuulators can pick their poison.

JNUG is heavily day traded and represents 53% of GDXJ’s inflows/outflows. So much so that GDXJ is having serious trouble keeping up with the volume. i.e ‘they’ have to actually purchase & sell those shares every day while JNUG just buys options/futures on the single ETF it leverages. To bring more liquidity to their ETF, GDXJ now holds their own large cap ETF (GDX) as a top holding.

JNUG, JDST, NUGT & DUST are SERIOUSLY distorting and damaging the entire Gold & Silver mining sector in ways that didn’t exist back in the 2011 Gold bull market. Because of these 3x leveraged ETF’s, top holdings of GDXJ get slammed around daily by day traders, while the miners not held by or at the bottom end, languish in obscurity (even if they’re execellent picks). Regular rotation of these holdings also makes for unpredictible returns. For example, GDXJ might pickup a miner you own while Gold is in a down-trend and shit all over it. Then drop your miner once Gold turns around. Or vice versa if you’re lucky.

Whether you like it or not, virtually the entire PM mining sector is now the bitch of these 4 ETF’s. So if you hold any individual miner, make it your business to know the stake GDXJ or GDX has in it; and at what point in Gold or Silver cycle they hold it. Real investing is neither simple nor straight forward…and a lot of risk-on, bull market chasing, lemming investors are going to find that out the hard way.

FYI beware of UGLD, DGLD, USLV & DSLV as well. Their movements tend to underperform their decay so are only useful for large short-term moves in Gold & Silver.

Reading between the lines of the statement, seems to me that it is 20 % rule that is the problem and that is not going away…plus mathmatically the only way u can get 3 times gearing, is to buy 3 times the amount of the underlying shares, unless u have an agreement, that dealers will sell u a 3 times paper derivative exposure and they then delta hedge…ie hardly ever buy the full 3 times amount.

I have yet to see what Directions book looks like behind JNUG….could be v interesting to see just wht it has…certainly buying it’s own fund GDX seems v naughty, especially as I showed last week, it is trading at a premium to most of it’s underlying shares…even when there is a constant massive seller.

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end of PM ETF’s….the scum are certainly playing games with them and their demise will not help the scum one iota.

One other thing is for sure, huge amounts of money have gone into the shares, via ETF’s and surprise, surprise it hasn’t gone into the actual shares, which it should have done, if Fall st was even vaguely honest…or the SEC not glued top the latest Debbie Does, we’d be way north of 220 in the HUI by now.

Tea for the ladies…

Easter egg coffee…

Should I be disappointed?  The Easter Bunny only left me one egg!   And it wasn’t very well hidden, either.