Deutsche Bank Calculates The “Fair Value Of Gold” And The Answer Is…

by Tyler Durden

Jun 1, 2017 10:55 AM

Over the past three years, gold has found itself in an odd place: while it still remains the ultimate “safety” trade and store of value should everything go to hell following social and monetary collapse, when it comes to “coolness” it has been displaced by various cryptocurrencies, all of which have vastly outperformed the yellow metal in recent months. Meanwhile, central banks continue to pressure the price of gold to avoid a repeat of 2011 when gold nearly broke out above $2,000, putting the fate world’s “reserve currency” increasingly under question. As a result, gold has traded in a rather somnolent fashion, range bound between $1,100 and $1,300 over the last few years, failing to break out on either side.

But is that a fair price for gold?

The scale we apply ranges from -20 to 20, with each point accounting for USD10/oz. This is the minimum and maximum range of the deviation. The current gap of USD80/oz or 8 on our scale would suggest an above average sense of risk or uncertainty in the market. If we apply the DB house view forecasts at year end for the US 10 year bond yield of 2.75%, a US 10 year break even of 2.15%, an S&P year-end target of 2600, IMF gold purchases of 5 tonnes and a USD up 7.6% versus the broad trade weighted basket, then gold should trade all the way down to USD1,031/oz. Even if we increase our risk perception index from 8 to 12, this brings us back to USD1,150/oz by year end. In the near term however, our US rates economist Dominic Konstam sees scope for the US 10-year bond yield to fall to 2% (before rising to 2.75% by year-end), as falling excess liquidity points to softer US growth momentum ahead. If we apply a US 10 year bond yield of 2%, a USD down 2% from current levels and the S&P500 down 5% from current levels, our fair value model points to a gold price of USD1,320/oz.

https://www.therussophile.org/vladimir-putins-interview-with-le-figaro.html/

Hint Billary will be throwing things around ….again.!!!!!

One of the most memorable visions I have experienced in life was driving through the Okanagan about 50 years ago . The road to Penticton and Vancouver was on a hillside looking down on the lake , it was late afternoon , the weather was perfect , and the lake was like an aquamarine emerald below . I had to stop to get photos , but the color was not the same in the resulting pictures .

Must be the Libertarian in me < ;=0

Thanks for your concern but really minor in the grand scheme of what people endure on this planet.

And for the record, I believe 90% of climate change is solar related, Suspicious Observers in educating me in that dept. I don’t think Humanity is helping any though.

As a FWIW, fruit in the OK was 4 weeks ahead last year, this year 4 weeks behind. It must be the Golden Delicious fault! Radical changes.

http://www.wsbradio.com/stream/

Due to high water, high winds , and lots of precipitation . I am happy that your home has been spared , and hope that those around are safe , if not undamaged .

Aside from that – Would you happen to know a lawyer by the name of Anderson in your area ( Okanagan ?) ? He and his wife Lynn were friends when I lived in Vancouver many , many years ago .

Climate tends to be a global zero sum game . In Florida over the past couple of months there have been over 1700 wildfires due to NO precipitation . I believe that around 125 square miles of forest have been lost in that short time in Florida alone.

You got too much , we got too little precipitation .

But climate change has been much more extreme in the past . I still own property in PA , and within a few miles of my land , I can show you exposed rock on a river bank with the imprint of palm leaves ( tropical climate ) , just a few miles from Moraine State Park – large hills of debris scraped from the land Northward by glaciers , and deposited in PA as the climate warmed after the Ice Age a few thousand years ago leaving mountains of debris as the leading edge of the glaciers retreated .

Leif Ericson established a colony in Greenland just a millennia ago when it was warm enough to support farming , but then that colony was wiped out as the climate cooled again .

There are shorter cycles of roughly a decade in duration due to solar activity cycles which are much less extreme , but in my opinion , much more significant than AGW postulates .

During my career I did research on gas solubility in water , and given the immense surface area of water on the planet , I can make a much stronger case for CO2 coming out of solution due to temperature rise from solar activity and resulting in high CO2 in the atmosphere , than I can for the inverse – CO2 greenhouse gas causing significant temperature rise . That is not to deny a possible greenhouse effect , which in my view is insignificant compared with solar variability . Everyone has experienced sudden gas release from a can of warm Coke compared to a very cold can of the same liquid . Another example is fish kill when a lake warms in summer to a point that there is not enough dissolved oxygen in the heated water to support life for the fish . The opposite is true in winter . Fish are frozen into oxygen rich water turned to ice and metabolism slows sufficiently that they survive being frozen in ice in shallow lakes for months , because apparently they derive enough oxygen to support life at that metabolic state .

I will have to drop this line of thought to help my wife with something .

Later , if there are questions .

kinda makes one wonder how much longer they will wait to attempt his ‘removal’ from office. Pretty obvious the Russian Connection is not going to do it. With the Bilderbergers meeting just 30 miles from the White House, you know they are planning their next ‘coup’.

Go Trump !

figured you had your hands full. Hope you all get a break in the rain.

We had a 100 yr flood in my parts about ten years ago. Roads and bridges washed out, a few folks died trying to drive across flooded bridges. I figured it was Mother Nature’s way of cleansing the land of all the poisons we pour on her in the form of pesticides and the like. I learned a valuable lesson. Before I purchase any property, I check the 100 yr flood records. A lot of folks lost their life time homes in just a few hours. Even those that stayed on their foundation had to be gutted or torn down since the sheetrock was full of mildew, mold, and other nasties. A few had insurance for such a catastrophic event but many did not.

Not sure I buy into the ‘climate change’ as far as it is caused by mankind. Nature just seems to naturally be unpredictable and seems to have a mind of her own.

Now when those lake levels return to a bit more normal, and you find your boat, sounds like a time to go fishing. 🙂

Take care, stay safe.

Less than 2 weeks, tic toc…

Most lakes around here are over their historical flood levels, just from spring rain and now high run off of snow melt.

When the wind blows, the 6′ waves pound anything and everything. Now I reckon Maya would scoff at a 6′ wave as just being a ripple in his world, so probably about a 30 footer to compare apples to apples. Mother Nature can make one feel like a bug about to be squished. Losing A dock and boathouse ain’t nothing really when I can look not too far and see people losing their house….ugly.

Anyone that denies climate change is the same as a flat earther…(that is my rile upper for the day)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AKG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p62313490633

I imagine Trump feels a little prickling at the base of his neck …

Hedge Funds Pile Into Gold At Fastest Pace Since 2007

by Tyler Durden

Jun 1, 2017 4:15 AM

Hedge funds are jumping back into gold.

Money managers boosted their long positions in U.S. futures by the most in almost a decade in the week ended May 23, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

As Bloomberg notes, bullion futures have posted three straight weekly gains, helped by U.S. and European political angst that has boosted demand for the metal as a haven.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-31/hedge-funds-pile-gold-fastest-pace-2007

Relax.  When they’re all in paper gold the commercials will slam the price down again.  Same story over and over again but with higher lows and higher highs as the bull market continues to pick up speed.  Buy physical at the higher lows. If manipulation ever ends you’ll know it because gold will rise by 100s or 1000s. In a day like it used to when real markets existed.

After nearly 20 years of watching the gold price and PM market news daily, I stopped doing so. It’s a waste of time. And so is investing more the 5 or 10% of your portfolio. Have some sure, accumulate some sure. But theres many more opportunities out there and the world will continue tomorrow. It will be manipulated as long as there are computers in this world

A couple of things I’ve noticed:

The goldbugs are sad, defensive and very jealous of BTC’s current rise.
The cryptokiddies are angry and full of angst and love to call people names if everyone doesn’t believe in their new utopia.

I think the cryptokiddies are going to make a lot of money.
I also think the goldbugs are also going to make a lot of money.

The future is uncertain, but we can all agree USD is going to die…and with it all fiat money.

Every day:

Debt levels continue to grow.

Unfunded liabilities continue to grow.

Wealth distribution continues toward the top.

The Great Reset gets closer.

I demand a special prosecutor be appointed! Of course, u realize, that gold stocks and etfs will rally by days end–but not necessarily comex gold–now do u understand why so few catch a gold bottom and stay on the trade until the top?

Judge blocks Montana mine over environmental concerns

May 31 (Reuters) – A federal judge in Montana has blocked the development of a contested mine next to a wilderness area in the northwestern part of the state, handing a victory to environmental activists who had argued the project could endanger grizzly bears and bull trout.

Citing the Endangered Species Act and other federal environmental laws in a pair of rulings late on Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Donald Malloy effectively canceled the U.S. Forest Service permit issued for the proposed copper and silver mine last year.

Environmental groups praised the decision.

“Yesterday’s ruling underscores how wrong it is to site major industrial facilities on the doorstep of public wilderness lands that provide irreplaceable habitat for imperiled wildlife,” Katherine O’Brien, an attorney for several of the environmental groups involved in the case, said in an emailed statement following the ruling.

The Montanore mine had been planned by a subsidiary of Hecla Mining Co on the edge of the Cabinet Mountains Wilderness, part of the Rocky Mountains about 120 miles (190 km) north of Missoula.

The decision invalidates the current permit but does not prevent the company from reapplying for a new permit. Hecla is still deciding on its next steps and has not ruled out either appealing the judge’s ruling or applying for a new permit, said Luke Russell, a Hecla spokesman, who called the decision disappointing.

cont. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/judge-blocks-montana-mine-over-224536768.html

Secretive group of global power brokers the Bilderberg Group set to gather in Virginia to mull Trump era

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4561054/Secretive-global-group-gathers-US-mull-Trump-era.html#ixzz4il0MlgWG
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Let’s see what craziness the markets have in mind today. So far the big headline is Trump speech at 3:00 where he is supposed to officially announce pulling out of the climate pack. Thinking about putting my toe in USLV this morning. That ETF seems to be a 3x tied directly to the price of Silver, and not some mining index like the ‘J’s’.

Sure be nice when Wanka gets his new Command Ctr up and running. Would like to hear his views of the chicken entrails. 🙂

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-01/nigel-farage-person-interest-fbis-probe-trump-and-russia

What a bloody joke, all to appease a mad hag….someone please shut the hag up!!!!!!

The ultimate irony here is the Guardian are died in the wool commies, masquerading as socialists, they still adore Uncle Joe, though they would never admit in public.

Just another smash out of nowhere for the pm’s. $17.35 silver now a distant memory. USD now in vogue.

and the beat goes on….

5 mins before crimex opens, in what was known as the dead zone, as no-one sane traded vol in it, scum bid dollar and SM, while hitting PM’s.

Please note Mr Hamilton ….that is what manipulation is all about.