Key Points
- Contrary to common wisdom, we show that low yields do not imply that US Treasury securities are expensive.
- After accounting for macroeconomic trends, Treasury bonds are only moderately overvalued.
- A proper valuation of the bond market requires going beyond simply blaming the Fed’s unprecedented policies of monetary easing.
- Given their recent negative correlation with stock returns, Treasury bonds may not be as unattractive as one might think.
- https://tinyurl.com/y7pur2wk