GoldTent Oasis is dedicated to our friend and founder John F. Murphy (Wanka) of Key West, Florida without whom this website would not exist. Gone but never forgotten.
ENTER ~ Post by the Golden Rule. Gentlemanly conduct is the attire of the day. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts DYODD. ~~~~~~~
Looks like Pele’s busy growing her island. About the only place around you need a pencil and eraser for the map. Hopefully it will release enough underground magma it won’t happen again for a while but something you can’t predict I guess.
Donlin is confident as it navigates the complicated permitting process
Residents of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta have heard about the proposed Donlin gold mine, which would be the biggest in the world. They’ve seen the logo on hats and bags, and on flyers throughout Bethel and nearby villages. But it’s not easy to understand the process involved in getting this complex project approved. The Environmental Impact Statement, or EIS, in particular, with its thousands of pages, is a difficult read.
David Cannon has worked for the Kuskokwim River Watershed Council, the Forest Service, and with the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge as a fish biologist. He’s also a local activist who is trying to educate the region on what he sees as the dangers of the gold mine.
“That document is massive,” he told a crowd that assembled in Bethel to air concerns over the final EIS last week. “I have a degree as a biologist and I struggled to sort through that document.”
The EIS is just the first step in the process and is required for projects involving federal agencies, like the Army Corps of Engineers, that will potentially have significant impact on the environment. A broad range of state and federal agencies and villages directly affected by the mine participated in the EIS process. Donlin must receive at least 100 permits from federal and state entities before it can begin mining.
The Increasing Frequency of VAR-shocks is a Crash Hallmark
Systemic Risk as a Complexity Problem
We can never predict the exact point at which the system transforms.
We live in a stochastic world and the final little push out of equilibrium may happen randomly.
But what we can say is when the system has become inherently unstable, fragile, vulnerable,ready for small perturbations to trigger critical transitions, in phase transition zone.
If we have reasons to suspect the possibility of a critical transition, the analysis of generic early warning signals may be a significant step forward when it comes to judging whether the probability of a transition is increasing.
It is hard to be bearish in a bull market, expecting a major sell-off to strike at any moment throughout blue-sky markets. Oftentimes, markets rebound from lows and critical technical levels such as 200 days moving averages, death crosses and flash crashes – in spite of bad fundamentals or blunt evidence of trouble ahead. However, this is no surprise, and actually is typical of other infamous market crashes over the course of financial history. Without exceptions, the worst declines described in the history books were preceded by lower than average volatility, stronger than average earnings momentum, good GDP growth, bullish sentiment and multiple vicious rebounds after early timid declines. Bull traps were visible on the pathways of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007, most notably.
The signposts of a potential market crash are coming in with increasing hubris. The increasing frequency of VAR-shocks is one such indicator, which comes in confirmation of our broader market assessment of systemic fragility for global markets.
A few recent case studies stand out, where investors all of a sudden wanted out of a market like people fleeing from a burning building:
We saw the volatility index VIX ballooning from 9 to 50 in the span of two weeks, while ETP instruments like the XIV were wiped out: more VIX futures contracts were traded in a single day (a quarter of an hour, really) than ever before in history, eclipsing the previous record by a factor of 4. The largest move ever, and an 6 standard deviations move.
the SM was weak, S&P hit 2751…but as always it’s been non stop up ever since…last 2778…the Dog will do a new record weekly close…they may as well have not opened crimex…..all is well in scumland…Lloyd will sleep peacefully.
‘ave a gud’un.
Ps the UK is becoming infamous for PC addled snowflakes…well not all the blokes are yet…..check this out.
Off to the tight is an image of a computer screen showing inaccessible sites. This is what investors saw come up on their computer screens during the time when fears of a default by Greece ran high. In many ways, it warning that investors should heed. It shows dozens of servers as being “inaccessible” and is an indication of how fast markets lock-down when things turn ugly. Take this as a warning and solid reminder that we must not allow ourselves to become complacent and think we have plenty of time to take action. In our modern world of instant communication, it is becoming increasingly common that options can vanish in a blink of an eye. If we wait too long we may find all doors closed and there is no place to hide.
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When it comes to economics, it is best not to have a great deal of faith in our economic system which is severely flawed when it comes to dispensing pain. It is the average Joe (or Jo) will get crushed in the coming collapse. Without a doubt some wealthy people will take a hit, however, overall the pain will fall squarely on the shoulders of the masses. Do not be deceived into thinking the elite .01% play by the same rules as you and I. Those who have worked and saved will see their wealth vanish and at the same time be surprised to find how resilient debt and obligations can be.
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Looking across the world to places like Europe we see yields on Italian debt soaring and the populist and separation movement heating up in both there and in Spain. The rumblings of war and trade issues fill the news. These events should sound as a warning and an indication that we have become far too complacent considering the risk before us. While few people think so, Italy’s collapse could become the catalyst that fuels the fire that finally brings down the house. If it does not, the light from its flames should surely illuminate and expose the fact that similar flaws and massive debts exist in many other countries across the world.
Here’s another thing I talked to a mother who’s daughter lost her baby at 7 months pregnant. Her manager was pushing all these double shifts on her plus denying breaks being on her feet at that time. It was heartbreaking these young women working too hard. They did that to my youngest daughter and caused so much swelling to her feet her doctor thought she was preeclampsic at 7 months along. It wound up a big deal and places were now insisting they take their breaks or get sued.
They were planning surgery. I questioned that so did she but nothing to mess with so made her get a second opinion from another hospital and she was not. Then the Doctor dropped her because she went to another hospital. A 7 months it’s hard to find another doctor but she did which I felt she was better off.
Point is in these cases I blame these OB doctors for not putting their pts on light duty or temp disability till after they have the baby.
So much for prenatal care.
Yes I’d say that when you see woman walking around with vagina outfits then talk about equality and not just focusing on their sex. Hello
But also there’s a lot of depression going on. Less community friendly environments and many places like calif people don’t even talk to their neighbors. Not only that but even in family units this burden of keeping up is setting a atmosphere parallel lives even within the family. No family time. Like in our days for the most part at least we all sat down to dinner together and or went places. Those who didn’t have that said it was harder and more prone to things like substance abuse of some sort.
In our day at least we had a lot of experiences on our own both good in bad that were either enriching or made us stronger or wiser. We could and can dwell on those days in harder times. But the younger these days don’t even have that.
These days they don’t do much anymore because they can afford it or to take time off. Everything cost now.
Even Birthday party’s for kids is no longer few kids coming over that’s boring anymore but some establishment and here we have many that cost anywhere from 400 to 600 dollars for a party.
Bourdain was a shocker. I kinda tuned off to him after his comments about Trump like poisoning him. Was a sign something not quite right going on with him too.
He was a genius I guess you could say when it came bringing people together with food. It reminded me of the days you could just travel if you enjoyed a diversity of cultures and learning from it plus things or activities you have in common. Then as prices went up everywhere people got to busy working and paying bills.
Anthony could do that with food and in his case drink too lol A celebration of life with a toast to Anthony.
With the world and wars and divisions the way it is now people don’t see a light at the end of a tunnel anymore.
Last week a woman here with two daughters one just graduating from high school the other even younger of someone I know just committed suicide. Why she didn’t wait till after her daughter graduation don’t know. She was battling cancer for 7 years as it does slowly friends everyone moved on visiting less. Nothing to look forward to she wrote a letter with her funeral plans and ended her life.
The central banks nationalized the markets after 2008 and continue to collectively inject “stimulus” to this very day. They are the market makers and the market takers. The markets will not crashuntil they decide to take away the punch bowl.
The dynamics in play are almost universally misunderstood. As long as the elite are engaged in a leveraged buy up of the entire equities market, not much else matters. This is really a great deal for the elite. Use free money to buy and then have the public bear any losses they incur. What makes it easy is that the public doesn’t mind.
If stocks are all is strong hands, managing the stock market is greatly facilitated. Things like this are normally not noticed until 40 years after the fact. Look at the economy without the handicap of viewing it through the prism of fantasy and it is completely clear.
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Not really. When a market really crashes, the sell orders won’t clear. It’s not only that there are no buyers, the brokers won’t even answer their phones.
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I’ll know it’s a top when Gartman says it’s not a top.
Your a good friend to your friends despite all you were going through.
Yep no matter how hard you try to sort things for a move where is it happens.
I sometimes miss my younger student days either sharing apts with others or finding mountain place or a beach side place in the days it was affordable. I could fit all my belongings in a trunk and just go. That was real freedom lol Now were all tied down with things and with the burden of keeping up. Taxes
Ex premier Harcourt is the lead on it. Can’t believe the market has that much demand for all the supply coming online…No problem, just roll it into an ETF
Charles Krauthammer Announced aggressive cancer returned. He says he has only a few weeks to live in a gracious letter of no regrets. He had one surgery supposedly getting rid of it but with life threatening complications. He was clear then it appeared again suddenly as a aggressive form. He is a fighter but said he knows sadly his fighting is over but leaves with no regrets.
Thanks guys. Forgot to say it’s been a bitch. Selling, throwing away, giving away, packing, etc. Also forgot to mention still lots to unpack so we’re still lost in the confusion of “where in the heck is that??” kinda thing. LOL!!!
Also trying to support a friend in hospital needing moral support and going through some hard mental issues with depression so I visit most every day.
I’ll check in when I can. Right now I’m again heading out. All the best from Silverngold
Goldman Urges “De-Risking Strategies In Stocks” As Credit Tumbles
Over the past month, US Investment Grade credit has steadily underperformed its corresponding equities, punctuated by a significant credit widening yesterday. Despite CDX IG 5Y widening 3bps yesterday afternoon to 67bps, there was little SPX reaction and only a modest rise in the VIX.
Personally been way too busy to worry about the markets. Sold our ranch/farm of the last 21 years and been totally engrossed in moving. During the same time I had prostate resection surgery and not allowed any heavy lifting for 2 months (yeah, right!!) Ever sell a ranch and do that?? LOL!! Fortunately talked the new owners into 3 months to vacate so just got it done. The ranch/farm is now going to be a HUGE medical cannabis facility. 200,000 sq ft of greenhouses.
Anyway, sorry guys, but I’m back, at least on a limited basis. You can now let the PM’s run on up. Thanks for holding them back while I was gone. Let her rip!! You’re the best!! LOL!!! Silverngold
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