I think a recession has already started around here where I live. More closed small businesses popping up. The Fed will wait till the last minute and flip the sail, and flip the rudder, like a sailboat with a headwind, on a tack in the other direction.
The only other thought is the entire global economy is falling apart with populism, trying to go into a massive deflation. That would fit with a REVERSAL of inflation that’s been going on since 1960s.